Seriously, some of you guys really need to get out more.

Red Hot X is rubbish

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020318/gfsnh-0-372.png?18

Followed by a long fetch Northerly

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015020318/gensnh-0-1-336.png

Possibility of so many outcomes when we have a HP sat over us.

Up in the night after a dodgy curry

I guess a flicker of interest in the GEFS this morning with the positioning of the cold plunge Sun/Mon. It is close on most, but several bring near -10 across the SE for a day before the high settles for a position that would ensure dry, cool weather for most of the UK for a week.

Yes flips do happen, and a flip to positioning the high about 500 miles further North next week and then allowing it to ridge NE would be most welcome. Very unlikely yes - impossible, no.

Oh well. On the positive side, it has not been the rainfest of last winter (one of the worst winters on record in my view) and the frosts have pegged back the daffodils from making an unseasonably early appearance.

Let's hope winter 2015-16 delivers something noteworthy.

In the very near term it could be interesting on Thursday with the feature moving in from the North Sea looking more organised each time the output updates.

Rain and sleet for some but snow over the Chilterns and Downs I would imagine.

ECM backs away from breaking down the high this morning but GFS FI does, so may be it wont be too boring for long. 

I'm hoping for some days where the fog persists all day pegging the temp well back

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold Northerly flow will gradually veer to the NE tomorrow as a High pressure centre edges towards NW Britain tomorrow. A weak front over Scotland will decay as it moves slowly South.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming slowly less cold with a lot of dry and bright weather away from some rain in the North later. Some frosts at night still chiefly in the South and at first.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the cold trough over Europe lifting out over the coming days as the flow moves North to lie in a West to East flow pattern close to Scotland later next week, and continuing through Week 2 on the Northern periphery of High pressure close to Southern England and Northern France

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today splits into two halves with Week 1 illustrating dry and settled weather under a large UK based anticyclone with cold weather by night with sharp frosts especially in the South but with areas of cloud floating around too. Under this cloud temperatures should recover somewhat by day and night too should it prevail. In Week 2 the pattern changes to a more mixed scenario as the High drifts away to the East and SE however the week will still involve some High pressure based settled weather but also periods of cloudy and damp weather as troughs cross over from the West with a little rain in places.

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run is very similar in style as the operational shows High pressure more resistant against leaving the South through Week 2 while the North sees the more changeable weather under a stronger Westerly flow.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 75% likelihood of High pressure over or to the SW of the UK in 14 days with benign conditions and temperatures just a little below average but with frosts by night in the South. The remaining 25% offer something rather more unsettled with stronger winds and rain at times in a NW flow.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure in total control of the UK weather through the weekend and start to next week as it drifts into Ireland and then the South of the UK at the end of the run. Typical Winter Anticyclonic weather is likely with some bright and sunny weather mixed with cloudier sells with sharp night frosts where skies stay clear of cloud overnight.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show good support for the raw data with a few weak troughs drifting South increasing cloud cover and giving rise to a little rain, sleet or wintry showers in the SE for a time before all areas become settled and dry later.

GEM GEM takes the GFS route today of bringing the High across the South of the UK next week and away to the ESE. This sets up a fall of pressure with a more marked freshening of Atlantic winds driving fronts across the North and West in particular with rain at times before the end of next week.

NAVGEM NAVGEM holds High pressure across Southern Britain throughout next week with only the North seeing a Westerly breeze lifting temperatures near to normal here while the South sees occasional frosts still where skies clear with temperatures near or just a little below average.

ECM ECM this morning shows total support for the same general theme of High pressure moving across the UK at the weekend and into the start of next week, gradually relaxing the centre to the South and SE later and feeding ever milder air down from the North later on a strengthening Westerly breeze. Only the North would see rain later though as pressure holds High close to the South.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates that High pressure will most likely lie close to the South of the UK next week and beyond. Conditions will slowly recover to fairly average temperatures and rather cloudy weather overall with patchy rain at times in the North.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards somewhat less cold but Anticyclonic conditions looks fully likely now with occasional rain more of a risk with time across the North.

MY THOUGHTS The end of the cold spell looks guaranteed now at the weekend as High pressure off the Atlantic makes inroads into the UK from the west by the weekend and start to next week. There looks to be a good infill of cloud with time as weak fronts cross around the Northern flank of the High and down across the UK, lifting temperatures both by day and night and making for some rather benign and uninteresting weather. Still as the High pressure moves over the UK some frosts are still possible where skies stay clear this most likely in the South where temperatures could stay just a little shy of average in the flat calm. Then we have to look to how the pattern develops beyond that through the second week with the general consesnsus shown by the models today of the High slipping to the SE but staying close to the South. This will feed stronger Westerly winds across the North especially with fronts close enough by to give rise to outbreaks of rain at times in average temperatures. However, there remains good support for High pressure to remain close to the South with light winds and fair weather with just variances in cloud amounts making conditions difficult to predict then but it should stay dry. So in summary after the next few days it should become less cold rather than mild with a long period of largely benign weather with light winds, variable cloud cover and a little sunshine and patchy night frosts, these most likely over the South next week. Then we may see some slightly less settled weather encroach into Northern areas later as Westerly winds freshen.

Issued at 08:30 Wednesday February 4th 2015

unless we get one last ride on winter mid to late feb, or then again we might be seeing wind and rain, as we close winter 14/15.   then who know have to wait and see

BTW I think the south is going to see some snow tonight and tomorrow as they said on bbc, more showers than anything, tho im sure people over on NW will be digging deep to find them cold charts over next few days to see what FI brings us,

^ Person from the NW here about to do just that.

A little more scatter creeping into the charts this morning.  Pressure looking to top out by monday then a gradual fall, with some members going for something perhaps a bit stormy within the next 10 days or so.

Temperatures also show signs of peaking then dropping back down to interesting values, with some runs doing silly things.

FI is starting to show interesting ideas again.... Light at the end of the tunnel?

if you read gavin P last twitter  post he talks about the metO feb to march which suggest a unsettled and cold period from late feb in to spring, if ive read it right,

It does look like Central and Southern England may get to have another round of wintriness tomorrow afternoon - while my own streamer is looking like a balloon slowly deflating on me, giving off that comedy farting sound in doing so.

Yes, I fear another bust for our neck of the woods, Ian. Roll on spring!

Let's hope so

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn364.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3617.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn365.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn362.gif

Something wintry across parts of the South tomorrow

that happened for us in merseyside last Friday I believe...