Here are the charts for January. A very average month overall but with some significant warm and cold periods. Overall minimum temperatures were slightly below average whereas maximums were quite a bit above average.

The first half of January was much warmer than the second half. Here are the stats:

1-16 Jan 5.97C (+1.65C)

17-31 Jan 2.72C (-1.37C)

Looking at the winter CET we are still just above average although that will change during the first week of February. I have included the CET for last winter for comparison and also the data for 1983/4 which is the closest match in recent times to this winter.

February 1984 was chilly although not exceptionally cold. March 1984 had the largest negative anomaly of that winter / early spring period. My view has consistently been that the second half of this winter would be the coldest part of winter and that there is a significant chance of a very chilly start to Spring. I still think that is the most likely scenario at this point.

Just a roundup of monthly figures for interest.

Met Office Hadley    4.41c

Metcheck                4.15c.

N-W                       4.92c.

Mount Sorrel           4.53c.

My Mean                 4.9c. 

Quite a downwards revision there - unfortunately.

Here is the first update for the 2015 CET competition. Early days but I think this is the first time we have seen Caz and Duncan McAlister at the top of the table.

An impressive number within 0.5*C of the final figure, nicely done guys 

Caz, you have achieved in the CET Competition what you kept coming within a whisker of in the Prediction Game, against a vastly greater number of participants, on which I am pleased to congratulate you! 

Caz will be pleased to see the result when back from her holiday....

Thank you for your excellent charts GW....

Thanks for the charts GW.

Congratulations to Caz and Duncan, a great start to the year.

Oh dear - that's me out of the running this year then! 

Cheers and thanks for those stats.

I went for 4.5C  - that was a bit unlucky that the CET slipped in at 4.4C

Anyway - at one point I thought I was going to be miles out.

Well done Caz. Glad I didn't enter this one now...can't have you beating me.

A few days to go it looked like it was going to come in at around 4.8c, and I thought I'd forecast 4.8c.

But, when I checked, I realised I'd gone for 5.2c. And then came the downwards adjustment.

Thanks GW.

Happy with P16 after the depths to which I was languishing last year! 

Well blow me down!  I leave the country for a couple of weeks and look what happened!  I'm gobsmacked! 

SC, I finally did it after so many near misses and it's a bit of a shock to me.

Art, yes I'm just back from holiday and I am very pleased but annoyed that I may be too late for the Feb competition and it's the taking part that really matters.  I'm hoping GW looks kindly upon me and allows a late entry.

Rob, where were you?  You have some catching up to do now!