We'll the weather may be frustrating but this place is comedy gold, love it when it get's a little bit bitchy .... can tell it's the pub run, it's like a rowdy chucking out time.

Anyway

This made me laugh, look at the SE and the way it hugs the coast lol almost sums it up.

Whoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh

You clearly didn't read many Twits over the last few weeks

Not at all is the answer to your question

Speedy boy , as you are lurking, any news from Tom Schpuh2prvupvker

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2101.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21017.gif

Dry and chilly seems to be the order

I think the posts from Tamara,  Ian Ferguson and the like are valued and informative but they are accurate only in as much as the data they are posting against is current as come tomorrow's new set of output their comments become as watered down as our own less experienced posters views as well but the forum here and elsewhere is a better place with them rather than without them on board.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

EC ens seem to have trended a little colder tonight. I think there is still some hope for the last 10 days of Feb

The issue with some posters like Tamara and Steve M is that they are cold rampers and tend to always put a positive spin on cold prospects. However, they do caveat their language so its our own fault if we get suckered into thinking a cold spell is on the way.

I think when we see the likes of Retron, nsrobins and Ferguson ramping, then we know a cold spell is definately on the way!

And still we see a handful of double digit cold charts on the ENS.

Not once has Ian Fergusson ever "ramped". He simply posts what the models are showing. If anything he has a slight tendency against snow. 

A spell of dry, settled weather coming up. Could do with being a little bit warmer, but it's not going to overly cold either in light winds. I'll take that compared to the crap we had this time last year. 

Speaking of Ian. Some recent tweets:

W COUNTRY FURTHER AHEAD: Current expectation is for largely dry/settled weather throughout most of Feb; temps broadly a bit below average...

W COUNTRY CONT'D... some wetter 'blips' possible (e.g. perhaps end of nxt week). Likely turning more unsettled frm W/NW into late Feb/March.

Bank. 

There he goes "ramping" again... 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A large anticyclone will move slowly towards NW Ireland becoming slow moving. A weak front will move South over the UK tomorrow introducing milder NW'ly airs.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of benign and quiet weather is expected across the UK with light winds and plenty of cloud but some sunshine or clear spells with some frosts at night especially in the South. Daytime temperatures close to average. Perhaps a little rain in the North later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow now climbing North of the UK and being maintained there for the entire run thereon rounding the Northern flank of High pressure in a West to East steady flow driven by the High pressure close to the South of England.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today as yesterday shows complete High pressure domination across the UK with the first centre gradually receding SE over Europe next week quickly being replaced by another with further rinse and repeat patterns in week 2. Quiet and benign conditions look relevant for all areas with occasional periods of sunshine and cloudier spells with temperatures close to average by day but with further intervals of patchy frost and fog overnight and very little rain anywhere.

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run offers nothing any different with little significant indication of any difference to the theme offered by the operational at anytime through the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show 85% of members supporting High pressure remaining close to SW or Southern Britain with sufficient proximity to ward off any attempt from the Atlantic to break through anywhere other than the far North. The remaining 15% of members are more supportive of Low pressure troughs crossing the UK from the West with some rain at times for all.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure close to Western Britain drifting gently East across the UK and on into Europe next week maintaining dry and benign weather conditions with variable cloud cover and temperatures close to average but maybe a little below in the South next week under a developing South or SE drift with some frost and fog patches by night.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts are well supportive of the models raw data with a large High pressure area close to Western Britain with a slack Northerly drift down over the UK pushing occasional weak troughs South in the flow.

GEM GEM is a little different this morning as it shows a decline in High pressure to the SE next week allowing the Atlantic door to be open with Westerly winds developing over all areas with fronts crossing East at times delivering rainfall for many in temperatures returning close to average overall.

NAVGEM NAVGEM takes the route of the majority as it too declines High pressure to the SE of the UK next week but follows it up be new High pressure developing again close to the UK reinforcing the pattern of fine and settled weather with some night frosts and fogs but benign days.

ECM ECM differs only in the extent of the second anticyclone developing later next week holding a position close but somewhat further towards the South of the UK which would feed more changeable conditions into the North at times later while the South maintains mostly fine if rather cloudy conditions. Under the Westerly drift mild Atlantic air looks likely to be affecting the UK later.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates that High pressure will most likely lie close to the South of the UK next week and beyond. Conditions will slowly recover to fairly average temperatures and rather cloudy weather overall with any patchy light rain at times restricted to places in the far North.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for High pressure to remain dominant across or just to the South of the UK with little significant signs of Low pressure or rain away from the risk in the far North.

MY THOUGHTS A period of dormant weather remains on the menu this morning as High pressure is shown by all models to hold sway of the weather over the UK for the foreseeable future. Only the GEM operational offers something a little more changeable later as it declines High pressure further to the South allowing the Atlantic mild Westerlies to creep across all areas with some rain later next week. It is the exception though to a very big rule with 85% of the GFS clusters supporting a theme of High pressure close to or over the South of the UK by Day 14 and the ECM 10 day Mean Chart promoting a similar evolution. As is usual in Winter Anticyclones they can be notoriously stubborn to predict the weather within as the positioning and age of the High can play a big part in how much cloud is present and how prevailing winds feel. In this case the High moving away to the SE next week draws a spell of slack South or SE winds up into the UK which could bring drier continental air up from Europe which could be colder and frostier for a time before a new High near the UK brings us back to square 1 by the end of next week with benign and settled weather likely thereon but without anything severe or interesting for weather fanatics to get their teeth into. The one thing that continues to stand out is that despite a wealth of mid latitude High pressure present is the inability of it to ridge sufficiently Northwest, North or NE to set up any risk of an Easterly or even a potent Northerly through the next few weeks. As a result it looks very likely that February is going to be a drier than average month with temperatures probably ending up near to average with nothing noteworthy in terms of mildness or coldness unless synoptics change radically beyond the terms of this morning's output.

Issued at 08:30 Thursday February 5th 2015

About as bad as it could get for cold weather fans. But not mild either so I dont think anyone will be happy.

I think this thread could last all month!

OK looks like this retrogression attempt will fail, I hope the models will throw another our way. The ECM tries. 

Likewise... My chilli & tomato seedlings would love a little sunshine right now. So to would my overwintered chilli plants.

True, when I said ramp I meant when he says a cold spell is coming you sit up and take note. Brian Gaze is similar. Very measured.

Anyway, a little different from GFS with a trough trying to cut our high

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020606/gfsnh-0-150.png?6

Today feels like I have woken up from a bad dream..one that constantly found me chasing rainbows in the form of snow for the last 8 weeks.

Coming back to my senses I am greeted with charts like this....lovely

A couple of weeks of dry, settled and calm weather will do me wonders. High Pressure to the east will hopefully provide some clear sunny days. For the south the window of core winter ends soon. Next week down here nature wakes up and afternoons in the sunshine will start to feel warm and springlike given some shelter. 

Time to get to know the family again and start living.

PS..I saw a couple of children in the house this morning. I wasn't sure they were mine as they were a couple of inches taller than the ones I remember. Might have a chat to them tonight to find out if they are mine.

a few people have suggested another cold spell maybe,  IE.  fergie showed hints, gav p mentioned a maybe in his last video, speedy said his friend from METO said winter is not done by along chalk, and brian here on TWO said in buzz winter is not over, time is running out unless we get a late blast on mid/back end of feb into march by then it would be pretty pointless as winter season would be over. but then im reading its going to be a dry settle month,

ill give it another week or so, if no change on the models then I think i might start doing some gardening dig out the table and chairs ready for spring.

I really don't think anybody can say that winter is over until we've cleared the mid point of April. I've seen too many stings in the tails of winter down here and suffered enough from late frosts to know that we'll get a surprise blast just as I'm enjoying the new warmth of the sun on my face. Feb/March 2005 being the prime example.

..its far from over but settled periods now will 'feel' just grand.