Was it ever probable? IMO not very. Let's say it's as likely as it is for the high to sink south and bathe us in warm SW, which to be honest I'd prefer to the benign meanderings of a high that has nowhere to go.
You can have as many MFIs, Opticats, Torqe Chains, Mojos and BMWs as you can shake a stick at - the weather is what it is and thus we move on.

This time next week however it could be a totally different story

At any given time I didn't think it was, but at 384hr that high still endures, with every possibility of it doing so beyond that, with such a huge window of opportunity it becomes more realistic it might happen at some point. As for the high sinking south, it might do and if it does, I think that would really be the point to throw in the towel, as it is I would rate that possibility being somewhat less than the retrogression, and the high cannot stay there forever, either it has to sink or rise, even if we accept the odds are fairly equal thats still a 50% chance of retrogression. 

Anybody doubting the possibility of our current HP migrating northwards should read Kevin Bradshaw's excellent post this morning.

Kevin Bradshaw  

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=14412

He is the weather data/history guru

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=14412

Some interesting GEFS reappeared suddenly on this suite

Some very cold, some very wet, some very mild

so perhaps the limpet high wont hang around for too long

Thanks to Kev, it is great to take a look at past scenarios. Whilst I do not discount pattern matching completely, I think our current high cannot behave the same as any of the previous examples simply because we currently have a less amplified pattern with an unrelenting strong Northern arm of the jet.

My personal view is that there will be a pattern re-set from the South West with a much milder interlude towards the end of the month.  After that who knows what could happen in March we can often be a chiller.

It's that time for a Fergie update via NW 

...albeit the continuing EPS signals remain for potential colder/wetter spell into next weekend, with fair number of members having the trough running across us. 00z DET and CTRL are both in middle-upper bounds of ENS spread by Fri-Sat, but rebound of 850hPa temp and GPH remains strongly signposted, so any unsettled phase looks very transient. The renewed block certainly has longevity stamped all over it thereafter (with MJO P8 suspected to at least assist), but combined signals are both in GLOSEA and now also EC Monthly for a more unsettled look to end Feb/start March. Whilst this is the favoured outcome, signals for breaking the block remain v inconclusive. Equally, when confronted with weak synoptic bias (as EC is by week 4), there will be inevitable tendency for model synthesis to return straight to climatology (e.g. much as we also often see with GFS out into Disneyland timeframes). Thus, the block certainly won't exist ad-infinitum (!) but we can't yet be clever about when it will yield to Atlantic mobility (certainly no convincing signs of HLB in GS5, but growing signs for return of cyclonicity from NW into March).

^^^ That was in reply to a post from a fellow NW user as shown below...

The sluggish block likely to verify out to day 10 at least. The spreads on an upper trough and lower uppers indicated a fair cluster of members against the mean. These are now well to our East so the block looks firm and secure for the period

can some educated member on here translate what fergie is saying here please,

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

February And Into March With JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Is winter done with us? I suspect not...

I think a few surprises may appear in the next couple of days. Just a hunch, but toward the end of Feb early March methinks.

February 2013 saw a lot of settled & sometimes frosty weather here during that month, and we all know what March produced.

Although there is presently little if any indication from the models of another wintry spell anytime soon, as long as that HP stays over or close to us, it cannot be completely rules out. The worst case scenario would be for the HP to depart to Europe allowing the atlantic back in. As long as that doesn't happen, another wintry spell will remain a possibility further down the line.

5:15pm the sun Is going down, over the horizon  anyway yep HP not budging  we might see another cold spell then again we might not or then again we will all be red herring again. all in all another nice day today.

So any news on the EC32 super-freeze on Day 14?

Mind you, perhaps the 12Z GFS Control has been tweaked to illustrate it LOL

LOL

I think the Express has hacked into the ECM server

is,nt it the GFS that plays games and over cooks things, and gives out the red herrings,

Indeed Peter... been expecting GFS to follow ECM but, just to complicate further, ECM has thrown something unexpected too. Gone is the UK HP and now a LP and unsettled end to the coming new week.

Gone through the GEFS (06z) at the T+168 - T+192 range and I think there is extremely little support from there regarding the evolution ECM is taking this evening.

A new trend or this evening's ECM Op for the bin? Who knows! Tbh, quite a lot of solutions now being thrown out - quite typical when you have a UK High which meanders around aimlessly

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015020612/gens-0-0-336.png

GFS control, Should be too marginal for snow

Cheers Gav

A freezing March will do