About this 'cherry picking' it wasn't frivolous, I was doing it to demonstrate that there are:

a) many opportunities for a cold spell to happen

b) that the probability of retrogression at any given time is nevertheless low

c) that there is a decent source of cold air to tap into

I'm not sure what issue people take with this, you can learn more from the ensembles than just looking at the mean, and indeed you can learn something from the outliers too. 

I don't think I ever claimed these outliers were the most likely option, saying that if you have a situation with these kind of outliers (unusually extreme) for long enough increases the probability that at some point they will happen is subtly different but non the less different and not trivially so.

I don't have a huge issue Q. And yes you do learn from the ensembles but when taken as a group with the scatter and clustering the most useful guide, but not by posting one extreme variant at Z+ la la hours as it's not representative and quid quo pro not very useful

That's exactly why, those who like the cold understand there are very few months that can deliver , hence a cold March

Each to there own

I think if they are taken in the context of the point(s) that I was making then I maintain that it is useful to do that. The issue would be a mis-interpretation with someone perhaps thinking that the outliers are representative or somehow superior when no justification is given.

The most important point is that you have not saved the image and that the run has now changed to something completely different to that which you tried to highlight.

IMO, all model output is valid for discussion but there needs to be a fixed image to go along with the description - as it stands - for those reading now, it makes no sense at all.

PS, if it helps, most of the charts on Meteociel are rendered permanent by clicking on the floppy disc symbol, top right - no need to use an image hosting service.

The first model that had this idea was the GEM, and now the UK and EC have picked up on it. Honestly I do not buy that situ, I think the HP dominated GFS is probably more likely, that said the trough on the UK should not be ignored; certainty an interesting development.

It's interesting IMO that there appears to be disagreement between the big three at a relatively early stage. This doesn't often happen to my recollection.

Indeed, and when it does I've noted a hybrid solution tends to occur, but since they are so different any hybrid would be ridiculous. In this case I strongly disagree with Gandalf, I reckon the UK and EC have got it wrong and the GFS will be validated.

I thought this was all a game , maybe people do take all this weather seriously

I think the UKMO is over-doing that low pressure at 144hrs. GFS and GEM look more plausible to me.

ECM seems to have changed its mind

...and the chart which I was expecting for Valentine weekend:-

It can of course revert back - this is just the op run after all but I have felt that the ECM has been on the juice with it's last couple of op runs and even said this morning that I was binning it.

UKMO T+144 is and has always been hopeless... forever playing catch-up, with it's naff floppy systems and isobars which are afraid to get too close to each other.

GEFS has had overwhelming support for a continuation of the UK High, with systems at times clipping the N and even the E at various times. I see no reason to change that view.

I wonder if it has been a case of what we have often seen from the models in the past during settled spells when they try to bring the atlantic back in too soon. I guess that the ECM could change its mind again tomorrow, but GFS doesn't seem to have entertained the idea of it turning more unsettled at the end of next week at all, which is rather unusual as it is often one of the more or the most progressive model.

Maybe down to the recent upgrade (as the T+120-144 is considered within the more reliable and higher resolution set)?

The fact is that GFS had nearly all it's member runs supporting the UK High option and I didn't even see one showing a trough bang over the UK. No surprise that GFS did not follow ECM this time round.

Well the ECM has been put in its place by the GFS. I have no idea where that trough came from, the EC0Z was probably drunk; let's leave it at that.

Anyway EC aside, the GEFS are still doing the thing they've done for the last week now. The 12Z has a handful of severely cold runs on it and several near miss runs too. One interesting point is that it is conceivable we might end up with a situation where shetland is in -10C uppers with snow showers and the rest of us are wondering what the fuss is all about!

Since this anticyclone took up residence we have had one occasion where there was a significant movement towards these outliers, it occured on a 6Z a few days ago, and the ensembles also followed with more than usual. Since then we have not seen this again, but I wouldn't be willing to bet that we won't before the Atlantic train comes back.

Its a matter of waiting patiently to see if this ever materializes and I would not be willing to say one way or the other, but I do not think these outliers should be ignored, we are not talking about the odd -6C run on a 0C type average.

I'm sure this is not such an uncommon thing. 

Now http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020718/gfsnh-0-6.png?18

192 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020718/gfsnh-0-192.png?18

Don't get any more boring then that 

Just out of interest Mike (because there is naff all going on with respect the UK for the next week or so) - is there a Norwegian equivalent of TWO or any form of discussion forum where you talk about Norway's forecasts?

I dont know if this is the right thread to ask, but I have a question to ask the qualified meteorologists amongst our number, regarding winter anticyclones. Why does the UK sometimes get clear, cold highs at this time of year & other times (more often?) predominantly cloudy ones given days on end of so called anticyclonic gloom? Is it down to the direction from which the H.P. cell approaches our shores or is it more complicated than that? 

Half a dozen of the runs on the 18z GFS ensemble show something similar for Friday 13th to the generally ridiculed UK MetOffice 12z. Perturbation 16 is rather tasty: