Still a long way off but one to watch as it comes slowly into the modelled range weather wise. The 20th, 21st and 22nd of February have some very high tides with the 21st February being the highest tide for most in a 20 year bracket from 2008 - 2026. The tide at Avonmouth for example is due to be 10cm higher than the very high tide of last September (which is number 3 in the top ten).

10cm might not sound a lot but it can make a really big difference when things are marginal. I would expect their to be some costal flooding with only a relatively minor amount of wind especially if the pressure is low. (Let's hope we don't have one of Quantum's "Extreme Low Pressure" watches!!)

 http://www.ntslf.org/tides/hilo

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Hi Dave,
I also look out for high tides in case there's low pressure and northerly winds lurking down the North Sea.
This year is exceptional for high tides. As well as February, there are also similar heights in March and September.
I use the Severn bore timetable as a guide to the highest tides.
http://www.severn-bore.co.uk/2015_times.html 

February has two 5 star bores, while March has 3 and September 1.

Certainly something to keep an eye on. Obviously winds from a westerly direction will affect your side of the country, while anything between a northerly to an easterly will pose a threat over here.

Indeed and according to my tide table there is a 12.58 m height on the 21st Feb @ 08.03hrs for this part of the Bristol Channel at Minehead.
Nick

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We're starting to move close to the reliable time frame for this event now and the early signs are not that encouraging - certainly one to watch if you live near the coast.

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Indeed, I've made a mention about it in the Model Output discussion thread earlier on today (Sun 15th Feb). If that latest run does verify then it's squeaky bum time for those living over Eastern coastal areas. Here at Kent, that would put the Thanet area at risk come the moment. 

Typical that the charts has been trending with a predominately high pressure option for a while thus making me think that at least tidal impacts should be minimal at best, then suddenly they decided to show a small but quite active low pressure popping up over the North Sea at around 21st Feb. I swear the timing of the event was done on purpose!

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It's quite nailed on that the strong to gale-force south west wind associated with a passing frontal system is set to time with the rising tide in the first half of Sunday night at this end of Kent.

With that to mind, I think those living along the south facing low lying areas coastal strip of Kent may want to rub worry beads come the moment and hope there won't be that much in the way of tidal-surge coastal flooding.

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