A couple of days or so ago, I mentioned that only one GFS ensemble got below 1000mb for Manchester and that was right at the end of the run.

Now look at it. Saturday's GFS 12z mean SLP for Friday was 1025mb, 36hrs later, Monday's GFS 0z mean SLP for Friday is 1000mb.

Also notable just how many preciptation spikes for Manchester on GFS 06z, there are now.

UKMO and GFS totally different

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015020912/UN120-21.GIF?09-17

UKMO wants to undercut and disrupt. GFS has now dropped the Scandi high idea

GFS 12z in FI takes us right back to where we are at the moment with a strong HP sat firmly over us. It could well be that any unsettled spell that comes after this weekend turns out to be a relatively brief affair.

snow row makes an appearance again towards FI, lots of scatter.  Really no strong signal other than maybe unsettled conditions for Feb 2nd half.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015020912/gens-4-1-138.png

Still a split in the GEFS at close range. Still cannot confidently rule out the Scandi high

Even if the scandi high materliazes there will be no useful cold air to tap into, and it is such an unstable setup that it is almost not worth happening. What I am hoping, instead, is that we will backtrack to the pattern of a few days ago with those severely cold handful of ensembles visible courtesy of the retrogression possibility of the High.

Yes, retrogression is really what we need and in turn would open the flood gates big time.

The UKMO looks interesting, and so does GFS for the 120-144 range this period they differing a lot.

The Thursday to early Saturday UK Low forecasted by GFS is more changeable and wetter, with less wet and chilly UKMO at 96-120hrs, The Models are not showing what the Outcome for the 96-144 time, the difference between GFS and UKMO at 120-144 is large.

I prefer Saturday to be a Wet breezy and Chilly.  And if UKMO 144hr ESE Continental flow develops that means it could indeed give us Cool continental type of weather.

GFS has to either pick up or show UKMO the changes at 144 today will be displayed by tomorrow's outputs.

No one notice the ECM 144 - 168 charts? Shows rain to snow event for the North East and Midlands (according to one S Murr)..
With the possibility of an easterly setting up early next week. Long odds but it is in the model at 6 days and MO seem to be on the same developments leading up to it.

Even if it does turn to snow, it would be unlikely to produce anything other than watery mush. We still have nearly 3 weeks of winter left, hopefully we can finally get a north easter, do people remember how well 2005 was predicted?

Tbh the moment that the ECM solution of that trough verified it was basically over for me, with the HP dominating we always had a chance of some bitter cold to end the month, now people are pinning their hopes on a scandi high, that even if it does materialize will produce nothing more than cloud and drizzle. The idea we could get snow from such a setup I would deem very implausible. I guess the good thing about a scandi high is that it increases the odds of a greenland high developing, but tbh its not even a proper scandi high, and the lows are riding over north scandanavia. Its a complete disaster; winter ended with the destruction of the UK high.

Indeed but 7 weeks that can produce the goods

Arguably.

The latest long lasting snow I have ever seen was Late February 2005, where snow was lying deep for a week and the thaw was minimal despite sunshine between the showers. 

Late March 2013 produced slow thawing, long lasting snow on higher ground but not on low ground. On low ground snow accumulations were temporary and very quickly melted. Given that march 2013 was about as extreme as it is possible to get wrg to the airmass temperature I think we can conclude that late march is too late to have long lasting, lying snow at lower levels. So I would say the cutoff must lie somewhere between the last week of February and mid-march, perhaps for central and northern England this ends up being the first week of March. 

So for my location I would say at best we have 4 weeks, not seven weeks. Although ofc we do have seven weeks to get temporary significant snow, indeed arguably deep snow is possible until early may even to lower levels.

You're asking about something 10 years ago. These days I can't even remember 10 weeks ago.
However I will say with a high degree of certainty that Gary Sarre was very confident about it

I had a look at the archive charts, it looks anything but zonal even in the early part of the month. I hope it will happen this year, but I can't see it. 

The 18Z is marginally better, I can see some attempt to ridge to greenland from Canada, and the heights are further north. But what chance do we have against such a raging polar vortex.

If we can get to something like this then there is a chance:

But please earlier than 23rd February!

Gradual weakening of the Atlantic polar vortex from about 300hrs on-wards, I think we have to accept that a cold spell before the 300hr mark is very unlikely. 

It may have been good up north, but what I remember about that late February 2005 period down south, is (a) the TWO Worthing Meet-up  and (b) day after day where it snowed a bit and settled a bit, then melted. It was hardly snowmageddon! Once you get past mid-February, then that's it down here to all intents and purposes. 

A bit harsh. Did you not know Q was successful with his application to be the Model Output Thread Night Watchman, and in my opinion he's doing a grand job

Q: LBW - Bowled Robins - 99

coldies all out for 99 chasing 101 to win, in the 49th over.