Feb 91 style GEM.

Funnily enough I was going to comment on how much the current anticyclonic gloom reminds me of the latter half of Jan 91 even before that run. But I have fallen into that trap many times before. Its probably better just to watch and wait. A late cold blast would be great in some respects, but to be honest this cold grey (much like March 2013) is too much for me these days. Roll on spring....

I do enjoy these comments , its almost as though we know warm sunny days will arrive.

We are the UK

Just like any one of us, that GEM chart is a shot in a million.

It would probably be marginal even if it verified.

bank! Just need UKMO, ECM and GFS to come on board!😍

It now seems that Scandi High might give the Azores High enough leverage to build right across the UK to settle things back down after some more unstable conditions Friday-Tuesday.

The GEM run is a curious affair, but relies on the LP undercutting on day 4 more effectively than any other model is currently predicting - it leads to lower heights over the Mediterranean which then sustain enough of an easterly flow to pull that 'bowling ball' of cold toward the UK. One of those outside chances that GEM has a strange habit of coming up with.

Of course such a thing is entirely plausible and will inevitably come around one day in the future - yes, the UK scoring significant continental cold against some serious odds! You'd think ECM and UKMO would have spotted it by now if it was on the way this time, though you can never be 100% sure.

Longer term, ECM and GFS are both indicating that the Siberian vortex lobe will be the master player again some 10 days from now, so there's a lot of scope for the flow to turn to the NW for the final week of the month.

Anything more than that will require some decent mid-Atlantic ridging getting up toward Greenland. Not much sign of that at the moment - just a few ensemble members exploring it.

There's a fair likelihood that any cold weather will only serve as an unwelcome delay to spring across these parts, but it could prove more rewarding further north.

First split vortex of the winter!

18Z finishes with a greenland high. 

Not a chance. Mr Woodcock has already made his Feb 2005 declaration

Missing the point Beast.  WIO declarations sometimes lead to WINO

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A light Southerly flow over the UK will strengthen later as troughs of Low pressure move into Western Britain tomorrow moving East.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable at first and then becoming largely dry and quiet if rather cloudy. Temperatures generally near average.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow ebbing and flowing in peaks and troughs around the UK as the unsettled period develops over the coming days. The flow then reverts back North of the UK and strengthens markedly later as it orientates more SE over Europe around a UK High pressure area before subsiding later to a more relaxed flow North of the British Isles.

http://www.netweathe...ction=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows the current influence of High pressure to the East will be lost over the coming days as troughs of Low pressure cross the UK from the West with some rain and showers for all. Pressure then builds strongly next week with fine quiet weather returning with some frost and fog patches by night. Therefater High pressure of one sort or another continues to dominate the weather intensifying later in response to a cold plunge of NW winds over Europe. This will turn the air cold across the UK too with more widespread frost and fog by night but compensatory dry and bright days. the run ends with the High declining slowly to the SE but only the far NW falling under the influence of milder SW winds.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is very similar in its course of events with High pressure well in control of the UK weather following the up and coming unsettled period that clears early next week..

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a variation of possibilities in two weeks time all revolving around the positioning of High pressure and its proximity to the South of the British Isles. The majority of members show it far enough away to the SW to feed something of an Atlantic feed across the British Isles albeit from the West or NW with the risk of rain and showers at times though 20% show it far enough in to cover Southern England and another 20% showing a UK High keeping things settled and dry. This suggests the jury is still out on whether dry and quiet weather still dominates in 14 days time or not.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the cool NW flow in the wake of the unsettled interlude giving way to a broad warm sector in strong SW winds setting up across the UK towards the middle of next week with rather cloudy, damp and mild conditions likely then.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a complex structure of troughs crossing East over the UK over the coming 2-5 days with rain at times in variable, sometimes strong winds and temperatures close to average.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a return to High pressure based conditions from early next week, lasting through to the end of the run with the weather revolving around a centre building to the SW of the UK. A maritime NW flow is likely across the North and the High is likely to infill with a lot of cloud again  from the North in the second half of the run despite many areas staying dry.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM takes the UKMO route on setting up a mild SW'ly next week as High pressure lies to the SE. After a very mild but windy period especially over the North some cooler but likely very cloudy weather will develop across the South later as winds back more towards the South or SE though staying light.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM also looks like UKMO up tp 144hrs before a further cold front crosses SE to give rise to a cooler interlude again behind a spell of light rain. High pressure then reasserts itself to the SW but this time an incursion of stronger NW winds in association with Low pressure near Scandinavia brings the threat of colder NW'lies into the UK from Day 10.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning maintains a displaced Azores High over the Atlantic and Low pressure over Scandinavia. Several options make up this result but a generally benign period of weather is favoured with rain or showers most likely restricted to the North with the driest conditions towards the South and SW in West or NW winds.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The long term trend continues to show High pressure to the SW still dictating the UK weather over the period although positioning of this differs between the output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.9 pts over UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 63.0 pts over GFS's 62.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.9 pts over GFS at 44.2.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There seems little immediate change in the domination of High pressure near the UK over the coming two weeks especially once we remove the short unsettled weather phase imminently upon us. From this most areas will see several days when rain will be a risk before High pressure builds back over the Uk from the SW early next week. Thereafter it's all about the positioning of High pressure in relation to the type of weather it gives at the surface with combinations of centres to the SE and SW and over the UK all shown in some of the output this morning. From this we can ascertain that there will be a lot of dry weather to be found for many areas through the remainder of the period but the question will be how cloudy will it be and how cold or mild will it be too. Most output keeps High pressure bottled near to Southern Britain which keeps an Atlantic influence of maritime winds across the North at least and this could give a very mild interlude in the middle of next week but thereafter there could be several opportunities for something rather chillier and clearer to move down from the NW later as the High nudges back out into the Atlantic and this scenario has at least some support from the ensembles. What isn't shown this morning is any sign of Northern blocking High pressure with the Jet flow always riding on the Northern flank of High pressure near, over  or to the South of the UK too strongly to allow any build substantially North of High pressure to a position which would enhance a  risk of continental or polar cold weather. Instead we maintain fairly benign conditions with just chasing cloud amounts and small temperature variations day to day being the likely extent of interest in weather terms in what is turning out to be a very dry February if this morning's and recent output verifies.  

Issued at 08:30 Thursday February 12th 2015

thanks gibby. I wonder what march will bring, easter cold with snow, wet windy dull cloudy, or more dry weather with sunshine, and who would of thought feb would be as dry as it is,

signs of the pv on the move so perhaps if a scandi trough can set up we can get some pressure build in the right places

EC ens show a cool off and some  snow spikes returning late on. I'd be surprised if there wasnt a cold incursion in late Feb or early March. It may not be severe but we often get a final blast before proper spring

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

Could be followed by a potent northerly.

In fi of course.

10% is way too low imo, there has been strong consistency among the ensembles for what I think is the most common greenland high building mechanism. I had rated it a few days ago at 40%, but now I think its more like 55%.

I admire your confidence. Which model best illustrates this at the moment? 

The GFS, although when I say that I am referring to the ensembles aswell. Beyond 216hr and certainty 240hr I think the OP run is virtually useless in isolation. The EPS are ofc also useful though obviously I will not be able to easily see if this pattern is being shown, although the EC Ops have been promising at 192-240 in showing the 'cycles' I was referring to.

One thing about this, the 50% I was referring to is the chance of a decent cold spell coming out of this, 'decent' is subjective, but I'm not talking about snow showers maybe at lower levels in NW scotland, but equally I am not necessarily refering to something particularly prolonged and severe, although I think it is likely we will get retrogression, a well formed greenland high is not something I would bet on although it is possible, but likewise a hybrid greenland-N atlantic or just a plain NA high are also possible.

Obviously with this kind of situ a relocation from the NA or greenland to scandi remains a possiblity aswell.

Gandalf: I think the 22nd is optimistically early. My reckoning is that the 26th is around the most likely time, perhaps even the 28th. Although a few ensembles do show it as early as that, most require about 3 cycles rather than two.