disagree

this winter has been better than last year for cold weather yes - but snow-wise absolutely pathetic

Honestly very surprised that the EC seems to have been right in the end with that trough, a pattern that I did not think for a minute would actually happen. I think perhaps this is appropriate:

And of course if this does take us into zonality, then the unusual dist on the ensembles will vanish like it was never there. Really I was hoping for a bigger window than this, but oh well.

Sorry people I got it wrong.

I for one wouldn't rule out the possibility of another wintry outbreak before February is done with us, even if there is no indication of one from the models at the moment. Provided we don't return to the type of zonality that dominated proceedings from early December until the middle of January, as long as HP stays reasonably close by then one never knows. I was surprised tbh at how suddenly the last zonal spell came to an end, almost without a great deal of warning or so it seemed.

Fingers crossed this high will sink further south over central  southern Europe and stay there.

This cold spell really has been overhyped,especially by the press to the point of absurdity! What would the reaction be to a

repeat of Feb `86

Imby temps have only been a couple of degrees below average,its the wind chill that's made it feel much colder than it actually is.

Today the wind totally dropped out and under clear blue skys and the sun shining gave the feeling that winter is on its way out However I agree winter will probably have a sting in the tail and a big cold snap sometime in March. Just a hunch.

Looking at the ECM and watching the trough disruption I'm thinking that with a tweak here and there we 'could' end up in an Easterly sooner rather than later.

It will be interesting to see if there is any ens split at day 6. But it does look like the pv is too strong

I understand your disappointment, but for some of us the weather doesn't end here.
The Spring months can be boisterous and engaging, and although summer thunderstorms have been at a premium lately there's always hope of some cracking plume-driven imports with super lightning displays.
Yes winter has flapped and squawked and ultimately for here apparently fizzled into obscurity, but the weather goes on

GFS 18Z OP

+162

I'm not saying a word, but . . . stranger things have happened LOL

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020818/gfsnh-0-168.png?18

You just never know eh?

Well it looks like this zonal phase is going to be temporary, with high pressure back over the UK pretty quickly. I still think there is a chance this could retrogress at some point but if, like some of the models are showing, we end up with a bartlett/euro/azors or just a strong zonal setup from it sinking too far then it would be fair, I think, to write off what is left of the winter.

incidently the severely cold ensembles seem to have vanished today, I hope they will come back, but the trough thing is a pretty major pattern change do I doubt it. 

Hopefully a 2005 style end to February could prevent this year from being lumped with 2013/2014 and 2011/2012. 

What?

You're having a laugh

Well I've seen about ~7 days of falling snow. Most of those were insignificant. In terms of lying snow, once we had something just slightly more than a dusting but barely, and otherwise literally just individual flakes visible on the ground. 

It may well be 16x better than last year where we had one day and one dusting, but its still trash.

Looks the GFS is a little interested in the easterly idea as well .

I was up in Sheffield this weekend (went to watch my team get thrashed at Rotherham - off topic for context - just saying'),

Best part of weekend was a trip to Haversage - loads f snow still on the ground there, fields white, gardens covered: Still a foot deep on the hills above it: Great walks up to various summits, full sun, low dew points, temp saturday just 3 degrees, 6 by Sunday: Now the point of this - honest! With the current synoptics, I can see the snow up there hanging on until March easily. I briefly cconsidered moving to Haversage - but my wife just gave me one of those looks!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure area near the South coast of Ireland will drift slowly East into Southern England later tomorrow with a light WSW flow over the North of the UK persisting.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Dry at first and again later with a short unsettled spell late this week and over the weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow blowing North of the UK currently where it remains for three or four more days. Late in the week the flow dips sharply South to the West of the UK feeding a Southern arm over Spain. This undulating pattern then moves East and remains for a while before the Southern arm becomes disengaged from a stronger Northern arm North of the UK late in the period.

http://www.netweathe...ction=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today is rather different than yesterday in as much as the orientation of High pressure and how it affects the UK has been changed as the interaction of a Low pressure trough sliding SE over the UK on Friday and then filling in situ sets up High pressure over Europe which then builds back from the East at times through Week 2 and gradually brings the risk of colder weather back across the UK from the SE or East. The run then ends with High pressure to the Northeast of the UK with a fresh and cold SE flow across the UK. A lot of dry weather is likely but a period mid run of rain at times starting Friday may last in the South until the start of next week.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows a watered down version of the operational with less command from High pressure over Europe and slightly further South cutting off any continental feed. It does show the unsettled and wet period for this weekend as low pressure slips SE down over the UK and then fils it slowly by early next week. thereafter slack High pressure looks like it would bring quiet and benign conditions back across the UK with just occasional rain under westerly winds in the far North.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show almost blanket coverage of High pressure expecting to lies to the South or SW of the UK with a West or NW flow across the UK. there are varying degree of proximity to the UK of the High with at least a 35% spread keeping it close in to the UK and maintaining largely dry and benign weather over the South at least.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure moving into the UK late this week replacing the receding High pressure away East up to that point. Then over the weekend the Low fills and moves away South leading to a slack SW flow and another trough easing in from the West by the end of the weekend.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure declining away to the East through this week leaving slack winds behind until the end of the week which shows Low pressure and associated troughs edging into the West of the UK by the weekend.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a more mobile evolution developing later next week and beyond as the High pressure currently covering the UK moves away East into Europe and declines. The marked trough at the end of this week is shown here as well with rain and wind for all for a time. As this fills and dissolves away South a more mobile Westerly flow gradually develops with further troughs affecting the North at first and gradually more areas too by the end of the period as the Westerly flow strengthens

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM differs to the rest from the end of the week in that it doesn't disrupt the trough South and hilds it's parent depression North of the UK leading to a trough crossing East with a spell of rain followed by a more mobile Westerly flow developing for the start of next week with stronger Westerly winds and rain at times gradually extending from the NW to all areas with time.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows a deterioration in conditions later this week as it too shows High pressure moving away East and slowly strengthening the winds later as the Low slips SE to the West of the UK with some rain over the weekend. then as that Low declines a strengthening Westerly flow over the Atlantic could give a rinse and repeat pattern of the rain this coming weekend before a more mobile Atlantic Westerly takes more influence over the UK by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning maintains the prospect that pressure is biased lower to the North of the UK and higher to the South and SW. The main belt of High pressure from the Azores to France should bathe the UK in mild Westerly winds and with some rain at times in the windier North.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The long term trend today remains for High pressure to be in relative control likely positioned to the South of the UK but with some discrepancies between models in how much control it may hold across the UK this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.2. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.9 pts over UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days GFS takes over with 62.9 pts over ECM's 62.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM regains superiority at 46.9 pts over GFS at 45.3.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS All models continue to show reasonable weather this week as High pressure slips across the UK and away to the East later this week. In it's wake will be a spell of slack winds and benign conditions before winds strengthen from the SW towards the weekend and Low pressure slips SE down over or just to the West of the UK with some rain for all come the weekend. It's then that the models begin to differ somewhat as they fill this depression up and dissolve it away South early next week. While this filling Low takes place a spell of cloudy rather cold weather is probable with a little rain at first before the majority of output brings High pressure back again. The central positioning of this High is crucial as to how things will be at the surface with the GFS operational in particular slowly setting up a colder period again as High pressure to the East gradually fuels a new High towards Scandinavia by the end of it's run though this is not well supported within it's own ensemble pack. Instead they show much like the rest of the models that High pressure is likely to rebuild close to the South or SW of the UK with a Westerly flow across the UK with some rain at times in the North. The main differences between output then is the likely influence or not that Westerly flow has on Southern Britain with a split share bringing unsettled weather into the South too at times. So all in all changeable weather is likely over the two weeks with a little rain for all and a lot of dry and quiet conditions too. Temperatures look like being near to average or above in sheltered Eastern parts should the later Westerly flow develop and unless the GFS operational comes to fruition then there seems little chance of anything remarkably cold, wet or wintry over the period for anyone.  

Issued at 08:30 Monday February 9th 2015

thanks gibby ,  how boring is this weather and people are saying winter is not over, I think it is don't you

Thanks for a comprehensive survey and relevant links

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Easterlies or westerlies next week?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Bit of uncertainty with GFS and ECM today.

Recon that is Westerly's or South west ... Course it will rain on the 13th...

remarkable how unsettled its now looking after its seemed high pressure would be in charge all month

One or interesting ens members regarding the attempt at building a Scandi block. We can almost rule it out but its something worth watching as it all depends on how the trough disrupts later this week

A cooling off looks possible