That could very well be an indicator of more unsettled conditions rather than colder ones at 2m level. The current high t850s are associated with anticyclonic conditions which, while mild in some places, could be equally as chilly in others at surface/2m level.

I admire your optimism Q! Let's hope that something good comes of it eventually.

So we do get a scandi high, but its rather pointless with the northern jet as it is. GEFS dont show much of interest.

At least it was dry.....

You think? I rather like the snow chances on the 14th 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

I get your point, but the iterative procedure actually begins at 192hr, and on the 6Z ensembles there was incredible support for HP domination at ~300hrs, some ensembles will, I'm sure, only need two cycles to get the greenie, others will take four (the OP actually doesn't manage it in the 384hr time period), I think the point to highlight here is that there is very good support for arguably the most common method 'journey' to a greenland high. And if I'm honest given that all the ensembles at 300hr seem to be onboard I would be suprised if the journey is never attempted, just like I was surprised by the incoming trough. I don't want people to think I am cold ramping though or seeing potential where there is none, I think there is potential here. In terms of verification of a cold spell I'd say 80% conservative that the 'journey' is attempted, perhaps 50% of journeys end up in at least a notable fleeting cold spell, so that's 40% chance conservative of at least some cold spell in the last week of February.    

The iterative method is also showing on the ECM although we only get to see one cycle. 

Note how the secondary high becomes the new primary and ends up being further west in the last image than the original primary was in the first. The new secondary high is getting ready to pulse up even further west. 

Quite a few runs going for cold near the end .............correct set this time

Hmmn.

With a split jet in the 4-5 day range I have opened one eye to it after many days of slumber. The models often struggle to capture how strong the southern arm of the jet - undercutting the high which in this case looks to be over Scandinavia - is, as GFS has done a good job of showing us so far today (LP was NW of the UK on the 00z, now heads to the south!).

Unfortunately atmospheric momentum is receiving a boost this week that was not foreseen at the longer range - hence the idea of HP pulling back west again before too long had to be thrown into the trash, at which point I decided to use the uninteresting outlook to take a much needed break.

Beyond the coming 7 days, the signal for the background drivers to start favouring a substantial drop off in momentum, with HP encouraged toward Greenland again, remains - it seems to have just been put back a week rather than being scrapped altogether.

GFS has been hinting at this potential on a few recent runs, but it will take something special for me to start raising eyebrows much. It would be handy for keeping the CET down of course 

The 18Z ends with a northerly

Again we see the same pattern of a low crippling a primary high only to pump up a secondary high further to the west. This only took two cycles (between 192 and 384) to produce a bitter northerly. Part of what makes me optimistic here is that its such a common method to make Greenland highs, in fact I think it might even be the easiest way to do it, though the scandi+slicer low method must come close.

Tonight's models are clear and consistent, no chance of wintry weather until at least late February, that's not being pessimistic just realistic.

I therefore in time honoured fashion declare....

'Winter Is Over'

Andy

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will move away slowly East across Europe leaving a slack but slowly freshening Southerly flow across the UK later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Dry at first and possibly again later with an unsettled period from late this week and into the beginning of next.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow blowing in an Eastward motion to the North of the UK. This is then disrupted as the flow is diverted South over the UK late this week with a sine wave pattern in the flow occurring for a time before it slowly reverts to a position north of the UK by the end of the run.

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows the current High pressure slipping away East in the wake of Low pressure moving in from the West and slipping away SE towards the weekend filling steadily. The legacy will be a weak trough with further pulses of rain for a time into next week before High pressure gradually reasserts itself across the UK with a lot of dry weather through week 2 with amounts of cloud again becoming the biggest issue in otherwise fine and benign weather  and temperatures hovering just a fraction either side of average.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run is largely similar with windy conditions in the North and NE at times through the period with alternating mild and rather colder conditions. In the South the more benign conditions explained within the operational text will be most likely under High pressure which will remain close by to the South or SW.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show unanimous support for High pressure to lie to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with just variations on the proximity of that High dependent in conditions experienced. most keep it far enough away to allow a NW or West flow with occasional rain especially but not exclusiveley in the North.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure becoming much more influential later in the weekend and start to next week with the end of week rain and showers of the weekend replaced by further rain and a strong and cool WNW showery airflow to start next week before a weak ridge approaches the UK from the West towards midweek.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning indicate a much more unstable period to come as Low pressure and troughs affect the UK from Friday with the pressure pattern remaining complex with further approaching Atlantic fronts likely to affect the UK from Day 5

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a quick return to High pressure building across the UK towards the middle of next week replacing the unsettled interlude of the weekend and start to the week/ Then apart from a few showers near Southern England for a time the weather should stay largely dry and quiet for most.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the unsettled period of the weekend and start to next week give way to drier and brighter weather as High pressure builds to the South. This sets up a mild but strong SW flow across the UK by the end of next week with occasional rain in the North.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows an evolution quite close to that of NAVGEM moving forward to bring High pressure close to the South and then West of the UK with only occasional interventions of fronts affecting the far North at time with quieter and more settled conditions in average temperatures across the South.

 http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning maintains a mid Atlantic High likely in 10 days time with a ridge extending East towards Southern Britain while Low pressure to the North keeps more changeable conditions under Westerly breezes in the North.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The long term trend continues to show an unsettled period before High pressure reasserts control of the weather over the UK later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.9 pts and GFS at 96.2. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.8 pts over UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.4 pts over GFS's 62.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.5 pts over GFS at 43.5.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The pattern of weather across the UK remains dictated to by the behaviour of High pressure areas in the vicinity of the British Isles over the coming two weeks. There is of course the marked period of more unsettled conditions lasting 4-5 days when all areas will see some rain and showers for a time before all models show High pressure returning in some shape or form later. The position of this remains fluid at the moment but most place it close to Southern Britain with any further unsettled weather in the second half of the period likely to be across the North as SW , West or NW winds blow while the South stays rather quieter. Temperature levels look unlikely to be bothersome in terms of lowness with frost amounts only occasional as and when cloud breaks under the High pressure occurs later and behind any cold fronts which pass over the North briefly. It should also be mentioned that if the SW flow that some output verifies then temperatures will shoot above average especially in the sheltered East. So in summary a short spell of cloudier and winder weather with rain at times will be replaced by better weather again as High pressure lies close to the South. Northern areas may see occasional rain or showers in a more blustery West wind and conditions generally will never be that cold.  

Issued at 08:30 Wednesday February 11th 2015

There's a few tentative signs in the GFS ens of some colder weather to end the month, present on both the Aberdeen and London sets. The former has a few snow givers in there too.

Too far out for much notice but worth keeping an eye on to see if the trend moves closer.

ECM240 also hints at a more amplified pattern with HP ridging North, which could bring at least some transient cooler weather too.

All that said and nearer term then as Gibby has said, a brief unsettled blip before HP returns - given the air source and where it sets up it'll probably be of the cloudy and mildish variety unless any cooler, clearer air gets dragged in to it.

Before I get jumped on I'll also mention that if the cooler FI signal does continue, a Northerly flow down South late Feb often feels very pleasant out of the wind and in the sun - probably much more so than a dank cloudy HP 

Perhaps the Southern mildies should be rooting for an end of month Northerly incursion

IIRC the exceptionally cold March in 2013 came on the back of a spell of HP domination that occurred in mid-late February. I'm not syaing that anything like that will happen this time, but if HP does dominate for the rest of the month as the models seem to be indicating and then heights rise to the north later, another cold spell cannot be ruled out, even if it isn't like a couple of years ago.

March 2013 aside, very late season northerly shots are normally next to useless in the South, both in terms of lying snow and temperatures. Further North it can be a different story, but the synoptics have to be pretty much spot on to deliver.

Most of us if we were honest are thinking in terms of putting winter to bed and moving on to warmth and decent convection by then anyway.

I agree. Spring and summer can't come soon enough now and fortunately events like March 2013 are very rare and I'd put money on us not having a repeat this year. 

Several runs edging down towards months end

Yep, winter is fast disappearing into fantasy land, alongside finding oneself in a room with Christina Hendricks and taking her bra off.

I see what you mean. Model-watching still has it's place IMO
Swerving majestically back on topic, and I wonder what effect the 12Z GFS OP from +336 would have in here were it to appear closer than +120. I hazard a guess it would have a similar effect as the above image is having just now

Can't believe there arn't any jokes about the GEM 12Z run.

Nothing wrong with that Q

if we stay on topic, this thread will last till march    I see east side of the states are enjoying a nice deep freeze,