Personally, not looking forward to any cold spell late Feb or March but I agree that the FI ens suggest there may be.

Again, a different climate but the winter is still deep and moving South over the US and Canada.

With 80c recently enjoyed in Houston they must certainly feel WIO and spring has sprung.  Well, they may need to think again.

Same could happen here folks.   IAOTTFLS

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

More On Extreme American Cold;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Also has a look at next 8-10 days in the UK. 

Why do commentators on here keep rubbing our noses in it over the fun they are having Stateside?

Exactly and you can't compare the UK climate with the US one anyway as there's is continental and ours is maritime. Basically chalk and cheese.

The developing sine wave pattern tells a sorry tale for the south who have generally endured a winter always on the warm side of marginal.

Yes, some ensemble members drop towards the -10c (850hpa line) but follow them closely and they all bounce back as respective ridges then topple allowing atlantic returns.

Mid February this weekend..roll on Spring.

Winter 2014/15 was a complete waste of time and energy.

The winter does appear to want to peter out with a whimper, befitting of a milder than average and for some snow cover free affair.

I can really do without a cold blast now, though between now and end of April its likely we will get one, annoyingly enough!

WI

I know there's nothing very exciting shown within the models for cold lovers at the moment but FWIW I think that another attack from the North could be on the cards in a couple of weeks as the Jet flow re-orientates SE over Europe. We just need a little bit of luck again that we're not too far West to benefit from it. Northern Europe could become quite cold again later too with snowfall but of course nothing unusual there. All of this just as we begin to move towards meteorological Spring.

My reasoning is basically formed from the ECM output of late and its ensembles, continued on tonight's run. Of course this is hardly likely to raise an eyebrow for those of us that live in the South.

There was a downgrade on the ensembles today, but the 18Z suite looks rather interesting. 

EPS really coming on board now for the first time as-well. The 12Z ECMOP was a mild outlier, the mean in the extended range is the lowest it has been in about a week. 

I know people think I am a cold ramper, but I would like to defend on that somewhat. I look for potential cold, but it doesn't mean I see it where it doesn't exist or exaggerate it. That being said, even if the potential is low it doesn't mean it should not be commented upon. I think the distinction is important, and I am against cold ramping just as others might be, and I like to think I stopped doing that in about 2012. 

On a different note I would be interested, in particular, if stormchaser (I single you out because I really enjoy your lengthy explanations) would care to comment on the retrogression mechanism that I have pointed out is being shown in the GEFS ensembles over the last few days. For me this is a very good thing and suggests a cold spell at the end of the month is significantly more likely than average, if not in the 'probable' catogary at this stage.

I share your thoughts Martin, with the latest ECM op run having a similar feel to how the end of Jan/early February cold spell first appeared in the models.

All of the models took some time to catch on, taking until around the 7 day range to really go for it, but while ECM showed hints when it was at longer range, I seem to recall that GFS and GEFS didn't really explore the idea much at all when it was at the 8-10 day range.

That's not to say we'll head down the same sort of road again this time, but it's not hard to see the progressive bias causing GFS to sweep the emerging amplification away before it even gets established much.

Do I want a repeat performance? Given how much of a battle it was to eventually land some snow in the cold spell we're only just hauling out of the remains of, I - like the majority of southerns I imagine, as Martin suggests - can't say I'm liking the idea of a re-run with stronger and longer solar input... though I won't mind so much if it sets in soon enough to hold the CET down. Now just watch it arrive at midnight on 1st March 

Correct me if I am wrong because I can't find it on Wiki so I assumed it's a word made up on here but is this a typical chart that resembles a Bartlett high pressure?

Nope - it's named after Paul Bartlett, a poster on uk.sci.weather back in the 90s.

Look at the charts for mid-February 1998 to see a Bartlett High in action.

I don't think anyone doubts you're enthusiasm, Q, it's just that 'I look for potential cold' can at times be viewed as you being overtly zealous in your quest for cold weather. You can just as easily, and at times more justifiably, promote the potential for warm, sunny, spring-like weather in winter rather than cold, snowy set-ups and as we have seen many times this season the milder stuff is invariably the right call.

There is a fine line on here between impartial forecasting and 'coldcentric' ramping, and you cross that line more often than you need to. Keep up the good work though - you're input is appreciated I'm sure by many who, if they were honest, share your dreams that one day the UK will get the golden shot and disappear under 10ft snowdrifts for a month. I am one of those.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression to the West of Ireland will move SE across Southern Britain tonight and on into Northern France tomorrow. Troughs will cross East today decaying later tomorrow near the East coast.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable at first and then becoming largely dry and quiet if rather cloudy. Temperatures generally near average.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow continuing to be one of West to East across the Atlantic strongly later, towards the North of the UK. There are frequent occasions through the period when the flow becomes undulating in response to troughs near to the UK and western Europe in general.

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a change to more unsettled weather today as Low pressure moves SE across Ireland and Southern England tonight with rain followed by showers spreading East. Then a further trough and strong winds crosses East on Monday followed by a rebuild of pressure to the South and mild SW winds for many through the middle stages of next week. Then alternating periods of winds between SW and NW occur as High pressure remains to the South and SW and Low pressure moves ESE to the NE of Scotland with some rain followed by showers up here while the South stays largely dry and sometimes bright but never overly cold.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is more High pressure based later in the run than the operational meaning less of a West or NW flow as High pressure steadily becomes established centred over the UK in Week 2 with fog and frost becoming widespread but with bright and sunny weather by day.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a complete outlook of Westerly or NW winds in two weeks time with High pressure looking further away to the SW of the UK than has been shown of late. A variety of options are shown between milder Westerlies and colder NW or even Northerlies with rain possible in all areas and some wintry showers at times especially across the North.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a mild and strong SW flow towards the middle of next week before another cold front begins to approach the west next Thursday with a likely spell of rain followed by clearer and fresher conditions later in the week.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a complex structure of troughs crossing East over the UK over the coming 2-5 days blocked just to the East of the UK by Eastern European High pressure before this slips SE later next week as an Azores High becomes more prevalent to the SW.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a steady return to more unsettled and windy weather from the middle of next week as Westerly winds increase and Low pressure to the North of the UK comes closer in spreading the influence of troughs, rain and showers down across the UK later with colder conditions then at times over the North wintry in places as High pressure resides back to its home base of the Azores.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a period of mild SW winds next week, strong in the North with some rain. Weak cold fronts then move SE down over the UK later next week with a temporary cooling off before the same mild SW flow returns across the NW one week from now.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is not too dissimilar to last night's run with winds always blowing from a Westerly quadrant. Through a period of next week the winds will be mild and strong across the North with some rain while the South sees more moderate breezes and a lot of dry weather. Later in the week a cold front moves down with some rain for all with a slow trend towards more unsettled and windy weather extending to all areas by the end of next weekend.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning shows a Scandinavian Low pressure being popular between it's members and with pressure still relatively Low over the Eastern Med and High near the Azores a popular consensus must be for a West or NW flow across the UK with bands of rain alternating with rather colder and more showery weather being the likely weather type over the UK in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The long term trend continues to show High pressure to the SW still dictating the UK weather over the period although positioning of this differs between the output and therefore maintaining the differential between members of each pack on how much it influences weather over the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.9 pts over UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 87.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 63.3 pts over GFS's 62.1 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.8 pts over GFS at 43.7.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS We are now entering our unsettled phase of weather lasting through until the beginning of next week with the first Low drifting SE today and tomorrow to lie across Northern France in a weakened form tomorrow. then after a brief quiet spell a new trough crosses East on Sunday night and Monday with showers following a band of rain. Pressure then rises from the SW and a mild SW flow looks likely for a time later next week. Then after that it's all about how much High pressure lying to the South and SW of Britain declines or not and how such changes affect the weather over the UK. From the output today it looks like that there could be a slow decline in conditions especially through Week 2 as High pressure retreats back over the Azores and Low pressure to the North takes a broader swipe at the UK with all areas seeing rain at times and possible interventions of colder NW winds and wintry showers especially over the hills in the North. What no output shows is a long term or major injection of cold from the North through this period though as I hinted at yesterday I still believe there is a lot of mileage left in the possibility of a cold surge from the North across the UK looking likely later this month or into March as the pattern that has been semi-permanent throughout the Winter of High pressure to the SW and Low to the North and sometimes East of the UK shows little sign of changing soon and feeding the risk of a repeat of the type of cold and showery periods we have seen as our only type of UK cold this Winter so far.  

Issued at 08:30 Friday February 13th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

March And April Look-Ahead With JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

JMA, CFS AND BCC included so it's a "biggie" today.

Thank you Gavin Spring in with a bang ...Maybe...

Cheers Gav

Nothing great there then

Thanks Gav. Looking great. 

Its getting a tad boring now, because every time I check the models, the same old fat King Bartlet is just hogging the entire arena, and looks like bedding down for the rest of the winter. Come on - lets face it - Its over!!

It looks quite snowy there if you ask me, although a bit bloodthirsty, but if you can deal with that...

First thing: The HP the the south-west/south of the UK shown in the models for next week is not a Bartlett. It would only be a Bartlett (if I understand the definition correctly) if it was positioned over France, and I don't see that in my model output right now. Look at the archive charts of mid-February 1998 for one example and you'll see what a Bartlett High really looks like.

Secondly, as for whether it "beds down" or not, it was only a week or so ago than almost every run was suggesting that HP would be positioned right over the UK for much of February with virtually no atlantic influence at all- look at how that has changed. I'm certainly not going to write off the rest of winter for where I live. I know from my own experience in my region that predominantly benign winters in terms of cold such as this one can have a sting in the tail sometimes; late March and early April 2008 was a pretty good example.

Thanks for all the kind messages folks.