Cold zonality may be my best shot over the next 2 weeks.

 

fergie said

It gets tricky beyond first week of March, with very low confidence on broadscale pattern but greater tendency towards blocking. Latest EC Monthly raises pressure anomaly to W thereafter through mid-March. Conversely, GloSea5 does so across and to NE of UK. So we remain in a situation where temperature regime at that range is still imponderable. In the near-term, the complexities beyond Thurs need emphasis, with a particularly watchful eye cast on phasing of any deeper low development late Fri-early Sat with exceptionally high astronomical tides (highest for 19 years nationally & for 25 yrs in Bristol Channel).    

So it seems that our weather is expected to turn properly rough 'n' wild as we go into the first month of the meteorological spring? 

I know our weather doesn't always "follow" the seasons, it'll do whatever it wants to do but, man, this country does sucks sometimes.   

I've seen cold snaps/spells in springtime many times before though, even in April. I know the charts are not showing any major cold spell coming along, but I do wonder whether what the models are indicating could be the "sting in the tail" of winter that some people have mentioned recently.

While the output does not look particularly cold for southern parts, I wouldn't rule out more wintry weather for northern areas and especially those on high ground.

For weather fans it looks interesting.

I've had some good snowfalls in March and early April before.

march winds... April showers... May buds.... Etc etc:

Though down here I find we southerners start the shower season in mid/late march rather then April. 

Isle of Scilly probably has a later sun rise time than kent, so probably not THAT much of a difference.  More a difference if you like in Stornoway vs living in Kent

The day length is actually only a few mins more:

Penzance (proxy)

London(Proxy) (7 mins shorter)

 Aberdeen (some 25 mins shorter)

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

March To May With JMA Tuesday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looks a mixed bag, but some cold potential...

Hi, can ask... Where did you get these stats from please. I've been looking for something similar for a little while now.

That looks like http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunrise.html to me.

GFS 6z (sinking low this weekend aside), is basically default zonal all the way through. By times mild cool, wet, windy and sunny. The last more frequent in the south, the first in the north.

thank you 😊

Unsettled and chilly at times towards the end of the month

Bit of a temp contrast , expect some  hill snow where the heavier ppn is

Further South and you could have a snow event

March could well start very snowy for Scotland

All worth keeping an eye on

Perhaps a card with wind and rain instead of snow and /or snowy landscapes!?

Depends on where you are in the country. Down here over the past 30 years there's been snow in the Christmas week (25th Dec-1st Jan) many times. As for snow at Easter, once or twice but not in any great amount. Snow at Easter is vanishingly rare here in lowland Kent!

(That said, the last time we had settling snow on Christmas Day itself was 1970)

I think snow has been more common at Christmas than Easter since 1990

I have seen snow or at least wintry preciptation on Christmas Day in 1993, 1999, 2000 and 2004 and with snow on ground  in 1995, 2009 and 2010.

Snow at Easter and I refer to the day itself: 1998, 2008

Not a lot of snow has fallen during April since and including 1990

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across Southern Britain will decline and move away South as a SW flow ahead of a trough of Low pressure movng SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and very windy weather seems likely  with strong winds and heavy rain or wintry showers for all areas at times. Near average temperatures but rather cold at times in the North and feeling cold everywhere.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows a stronger flow later this week directed South across the UK and then setting up a position West to East across a more Southerly latitude than of late close to Southern Britain with a continuing trough/ridge pattern North and South over the UK for the remainder of the period.

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a broad and very strong Westerly flow developing across the UK towards the weekend and lasting through the remainder of the run. With winds predominantly from the West and very strong with gales at times it will never feel overly mild but never be actually overly cold with spells of windy weather with periods of rain alternating with brief colder periods in NW winds and showers, wintry on hills these especially across the North. The North and West will always be favoured for the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall though all areas are shown to capture some.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows similar conditions to the operational in Week 1 but rises pressure substantially over the British Isles in Week 2 with High pressure becoming dominent again with light winds and bright days replacing wind and rain but with the eventual return to some frost at night in temperatures otherwise close to average.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today continue to show an Atlantic Westerly or NW'ly with High pressure to the South and SW with West or NW winds delivering rain at times to all though there are some member groups of around 20% who show a similar evolution to the Control run in bringing back High pressure closer to Southern Britain later.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a deepening Low moving East from Iceland to Scandinavia early next week with a band of rain and gales quickly replaced by rather chilly and showery WNW winds with sleet and snow showers over hills especially those in the North, all this following a spell of rain on Friday and a chilly and showery weekend under a NW flow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the High just to the South of the Uk declining ahead of a cold front moving SE tonight and tomorrow. This is then followed by a couple of wave depression crossing East over Southern Britain on Friday with an interesting cocktail of rain, with sleet or snow in places on the northern edge before a chilly NW flow is shown over the weekend and a following warm front towards Western Britain on Sunday.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM also shows Westerly winds developing strongly over the UK carrying fast moving bands of rain followed by showers, wintry on hills for many. Some drier and brighter periods under transient ridges are also shown later in the run but they look relatively short-lived.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure in total control from the end of this week with a lot of rather cold and windy weather under a West or NW flow. There will be days of sunshine and wintry showers mixed with short spells of more continuous rain as well when gales are possible.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too shows a lot of chilly air crossing the Atlantic Ocean over the UK from the Greenland area under Low pressure stretching from Iceland and down over NW Europe. Fast moving fronts in the flow will each bring their own version of rain with snow on hills and followed by cold blustery weather with wintry showers especially in the North and West, this theme lasting out to day 10 and probably beyond.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to paint a synoptic pattern that has been repeated several times this Winter in our unsettled spells in that Low pressure stretches from Iceland to a deep trough over Europe bathing the UK in chilly West or NW winds and rain or wintry showers at times.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to all agree on a shift towards a deeper unsettled period with strong winds and rain or showers (wintry on hills) in a pattern of Low to the North and High well to the South and SW of the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.4 pts over UKMO at 88.2 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.6 pts over GFS's 59.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.0 pts over GFS at 40.9.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS We are now looking down the barrel of a period of much more volatile weather when everything bar the kitchen sink could be thrown at us over the coming two weeks. The next 24 hours will be the last of the fairly quiet weather with a band of rain tomorrow introducing a much more unsettled period for all and not just the North. Indeed on Friday there could be an interesting spell when cold lovers could see some of the white stuff over the higher ground from the Midlands North for a time as a wave depressions crosses East over the South into the cold air introduced by tomorrows trough of Low pressure. Then a chilly NW'ly on Saturday with some wintry showers is the precursor to a very windy spell with gales, heavy rain followed by squally thundery showers is likely next week with sleet and snow over northern modest elevations at times. The details beyond the middle of next week then become harder and less important to verify in a day to day way but the thrust of the outut suggests many more days of often windy and wet weather intermixed with days of squally, heavy showers which contain a not unusual late Winter/early Spring mix of rain, hail, sleet, snow and thunder. In among all this there is some drier and brighther conditions to be had but this will always be offset by an almost incessant strong breeze. In the far reaches of the output that stretches that far there is some suggestion that things may quieten down towards the end of the first week of March but details on how and when this transpires is hard to quote at the moment and in the meantime we should all batten down the hatches for some interesting and sometimes wild weather for weather lovers if not for snow lovers though having said that it is imperative to say that Northern hills and mountains should do very well for this stuff over the up and coming period while elsewhere fleeting interest is all any snowfall is likely to offer.  

Issued at 08:30 Wednesday February 18th 2015

A nicely chosen 30 years! In 1983 Maidstone had 6 inches of snow on Easter Sunday. We missed it, having gone to Italy on holiday, but it caught up with us, and we experienced a 3-inch slushy fall in Perugia two days later.

And there were other years around 1980 when there was late snowfall. I can't place the year, but about then Maidstone had 3 inches on the first day of the school summer term.