Chosen because I'm in my mid 30s and 30 years is as far as I can go back reliably with my weather memories.

I wouldn't have been aware of what the weather was doing in 1983. That said, there have been a few times in the past 30 years where Maidstone has seen late snowfall but here there's just been rain - the extra few miles away from the sea makes a *big* difference when it comes to marginal situations.

The thing with Easter snowfalls is that, unlike Christmas Day, the Easter Bank holiday weekend isn't a static date where sometimes it falls at an early date and thus has a better chance to "catch" a snow event. And indeed I remember clearly waking up to 4 inches of snow cover on Easter Sunday morning (3rd of April) in 1983, but such as is the strength of the noon time sun at that time of the year, it was all gone by lunch time. I was a spotty faced 15 years old at that time.

Anyway, back to the models, looks like I have about 24 hours of decent weather before it all turns wet and sometimes windy. But it won't be ALL bad and it is only late February after all, save all our "high pressure tokens" until when we do need it in the summer months.

Looking wet/very wet and fairly stormy for the foreseeable with some brief cold shots bringing the risk of wintry showers in places as per ECM 00z.

The output looks rather like March 1995 to me. That was a classic example of a March dominated by cold zonality with a fair amount of snow at times up here.

Yep, some cold air over us

The next 48 hours could take me from a rather dry month to a near average one for rainfall.

Then we see a bit of a roller-coaster of temperatures but perhaps tending to be near or below average overall, increasingly as we near the end of the 10 day period.

ECM is a bit more amplification away from locking down a trough to the east of the UK, but GFS isn't at all interested, with greater upstream mobility.

With global atmospheric momentum dropping off over the coming week, a trend to a more amplified solution would not be surprising.

On the other hand, this signal for reducing momentum was present in late January for the couple of weeks just gone, but turned out to be a red herring. These background signals are themselves based on model predictions. I have learnt over the past season that their main source of value comes from having a lead time of perhaps a week over changes in the Atlantic weather patterns, so can act as a clear indicator of potential trends in the output to come... but only if they are being predicted correctly.

It seems to me that, if you are experienced at assessing model output, it's possible to spot these trends in the Atlantic model output anyway... and arguably more entertaining

I have been reading into the various driving signals like Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) and Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum (GLAAM) in a bid to come up with straight forward explanations that can be referred to whenever they come up on this forum but it turns out that they are very complicated and attempts to explain them will probably lead to more confusion than understanding 

I'm not even sure that I have a complete grasp of them myself 

The GFS has us affected by Quite A several Low Pressure areas and Associated SWT's around them.  With Seasonal Average Temperatures and Hill Snow possible, The Rain will be cold with some temporary Ridging bring drier and bright weather but with some cold frosty nights and cold days during NW RPM airmass crossings.

12z GFS looks fine for next 2 weeks.

😃😋😅

Close eye on Friday according to JH , snow on the Northern edge of the system coming in

Tomorrow's rain totals have been adjusted down a bit on the 12z Euro4 and this brings it more in line with other output. A fairly standard amount for much of England and Wales (5-15mm) but with more than 20mm over high ground.

Friday's event continues to look more potent across the south, potentially some 20-25mm quite widely for the coastal counties.
No sign of any snow from this model, as the colder air doesn't cut in far enough as it comes around the N flank of the developing low.

If by some miracle there had been decent cold air in place tomorrow there would be a outbreak of anger and desk-scratching this morning as the wave feature now looks like moving through to the south, pulling any potential snowfall with it.
Story of the winter so far - even a non-chance of snow fails LOL

The longer term remains the same - brief brushes with colder air further North but generally unsettled and average temp-wise, even some very mild days at times.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move slowly East across England and Wales today followed by another complex wave depression running East over Southern England tomorrow. A showery Westerly flow will veer NW tomorrow over the North.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and very windy weather seems likely  with strong winds and heavy rain or wintry showers before Southern areas in particular become drier and more settled later

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow undulating North and South in the vicinity of the UK over the next 10 days or so, blowing very strongly at times. late in the period there are sme suggestions it will move back North of the UK as High pressure builds from the South once more.

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a lengthy period of very volatile westerly winds across the UK with fast moving bands of rain then showers, sometimes wintry moving through all areas at time. then later in the period High pressure develops from the South with fine and more settled conditions developing later with fine days and some overnight frosts especially over the South.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is similar in type over the first week to 10 days as the operational but is less excited about the return of more settled conditions later, in fact it shows a largely unchanged period other than less windy weather with rain at times from off the Atlantic still dominant over most areas in temperatures closer to average..

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show the likelihood of much more of a theme towards High pressure being likely in two weeks time with the centre likely to be once more close to Southern or Western Britain rather than anywhere else. Just a 20% group suggest a cold NW flow over the UK with the chance of rain or showers and a few more with Northern areas remaining unsettled in a westerly flow with some rain.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a strong NW then Westerly flow as we move into the first half of the week with wintry showers followed by less cold weather with spells of rain shown towards Day 6 today.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a typical period of Westerly winds with occasional troughs swinging East across the UK in sometimes rather cold air with wintry showers.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a generally rather cold and unsettled period with West or NW winds with rain followed by spells of wintry showers especially across the North. Some brief drier interludes will pass West to East through the UK at times too.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too show very unsettled weather with periods of rain followed by cold weather with squally wintry showers in NW winds, the pattern repeated several times over the next 6-8 days.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too shows unsettled week to come in strong West or NW winds with rain and wintry showers the shape of things to come. then later in the run High pressure builds North in response to the Jet flow returning North of the UK, gradually settling things down on Week 2 especially across the South where it will feel less cold than the week to come.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to paint a synoptic pattern that has been repeated several times this Winter in our unsettled spells in that there is likely to be an Icelandic Low pressure in 10 days with High pressure near the Azores with Westerly winds and rain at times predominating across the UK in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are increasingly showing the likelihood of High pressure building back North from the South as we move into the second week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.0. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.6 pts over UKMO at 88.4 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.3 pts over GFS's 59.7 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.4 pts over GFS at 40.1.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There is an increasing signal from the longer term models that the expected period of very volatile weather will be in place for about a week before High pressure regains some influence across the UK from the South or SW. Before that happens all models suggest a very windy period with westerly gales and rain at times alternating with more NW winds and showery weather when the weather will be more showery. Wintry showers are expected over all high ground  and it will feel quite unpleasant at times. Then towards the end of next week High pressure from the Azores region looks likely to build back as the Jet stream pushes back North of the UK setting up a probably North/South split in the weather with the North retaining some unsettled weather with rain at times but less cold while the South sees dry conditions with variable cloud, average temperatures and the possibility of patchy night frosts. This is a new trend within the models today but has been hinted at over recent runs by various members and it is a fast growing trend. We must be mindful though that this is 7-10 days ahead and with a lot of weather to get through before any of that becomes apparent a lot can and possibly will change between runs now and then. What is unlikely is that apart from transient snowfalls of a showery nature there is little likelihood of any meaningful wintry disruption over the period with frosts and fog also hard to come by in a widespread fashion over the period. All in all very typical late February/Early March weather.  

Issued at 08:30 Wednesday February 18th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Arctic Oscillation Going Very Positive;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Strong westerlies to end winter...

The areas of rain associated with the system don't look like wrapping together into one feature anymore, instead one feature crosses England and Wales tonight and then a second feature passes to the south of the UK.

Thinking about those temperatures, estimated CET returns using GFS raw data look like this:

5.5, 4.0, 3.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.25, 4.5, 8.0, 3.5, 1.75

So the 1981-2010 LTA is 4.4*C so close to average is a good assessment for all but two days, with one mild day and one cold day being the exceptions.

Generally a bit on the boring side for the south, tedious in the rain unless something more feisty comes along (some decent convection would be nice!).

A Scandinavian High threatens at the end of 12z GFS op higher-res due to LP in the Atlantic behaving favourably days 6-7 for building the UK ridge north rather than just flattening it.

No interest from ECM, which sticks with any blocking highs being further away to our east, westerlies still at play across the UK, though perhaps increasingly settled as the jet ventures back north.

Excellent explanation by JH on the BBC News Channel wrt the jet and its plunging south across the US, effectively firing it up to 250mph as it heads towards the UK. A stormy spell for the UK then although the focus will usually be towards the NW. The models supporting this unsettled theme for the foreseeable

What has me rather surprised is that no one seems to be talking about the potential for significant snow on Sunday. I recon snow will fall on Sunday in some form, Yorkshire Northwards and will settle above 150m in Scotland, but a very small upgrade could I feel produce 5-10cm with 20cm on the hills. 

I posted this schematic to twitter.

Obviously it isn't in the format of my usual snow risk maps, because I only do those for the night before. This is the most likely outcome I feel, with wet, sleety non-settling snow very widespread across northern England and even N ireland for a time, and some light accumulations in Northern scotland (with significant accums over the highlands).

However with a slightly stronger warm front, and a slightly different tilt (less of a W component) it would be very easy for this to be more severe. Think New years eve 2000, the pattern is somewhat similar if obviously likely to be far less severe. 

I don't think there was anything wrong with it, I said there was a 50% chance it would come to something, clearly it hasn't in the end. 

Even if there was an upgrade in the case of the Sunday event it would still probably be snow to rain, I just find it odd no one is talking about it.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A showery NW airflow will develop across the UK later today and tonight followed by a weak ridge of High pressure crossing from the West through the latter half of tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and very windy weather seems likely  with strong winds and heavy rain or wintry showers before Southern areas in particular become drier and more settled later

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow strengthening across the Atlantic over the coming days towards and over the UK with always a tendency for the flow to dip South over NW Europe. Later in the period the flow trends back North of the UK as pressure rises from the South

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a period of strong West or NW winds to come over the next 3-4 days with a spell of rain and wintry showers following to all areas early next week. The trend thereafter is for the unsettled and changeable conditions to slowly retreat North to Northern areas as High pressure develops close to the South. Later still the whole of the UK is shown to become settled and dry as a large High pressure area sits to the East with daytime sunshine transferring to cold and clear conditions by night with frost and fog patches.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is more restrictive on its improvements through the second half of the run with all of the next working week windy, rather cold and changeable for all before the trend is for the North to continue with rain at times under a Westerly flow while the South sees longer dry spells with High pressure close by to the South. Conditions would turn less cold generally later.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show an 80% group who stand by High pressure either close to the South or SW with a strong influence near to Southern Britain with a westerly flow over the North and West with rain at times in average temperatures. The other 20% show a more chilly NW flow with showers.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a rather cold start and probably end to the next working week too with squally showers, heavy and wintry at times in the North and West. It will be very windy with Westerly gales and a more prolonged spell of rain in the middle of the week as a new Low and frontal set cross the UK from the West.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning mirror the raw output data from UKMO well with a strong and chilly West then NW flow next week with wintry showers preceded by wet and windy weather from active troughs crossing East on Sunday.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a changeable 10 days of weather to come with a spell of severe gales and wintry showers early in the week. thereafter the worst of the Westerly winds and unsettled conditions becomes more notable across the North while pressure rises over the South with less windy weather and longer dry spells between very occasional belts of rain here.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the next week as unsettled, rather cold and often very windy with spells of rain alternating with showers, wintry on hills in the North especially early in the week. Some drier interludes are expected later especially over the South.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning looks rather less keen on developing High pressure close enough to the South to prevent all areas continuing to see spells of rain and showers in a brisk westerly flow right out to the end of the run. The very worst conditions though will be early next week with gales and wintry showers, a process which could be repeated late in the week before less cold air moves across the UK with the heaviest rain then likely towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to paint a synoptic pattern that has been repeated several times this Winter in our unsettled spells in that there is likely to be an Icelandic Low pressure in 10 days with High pressure near the Azores with Westerly winds and rain at times predominating across the UK in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are maintaining the likelihood of High pressure building back North from the South as we move into the second week likely developing a more North/ South split in weather conditions across the UK later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.8 pts over UKMO at 88.5 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.6 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.5 pts over GFS at 39.6.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The trend towards a build of pressure again from the South or SW is still on course to take place within the models from about a week or so. In the meantime conditions look like being quite volatile and windy with gales, severe in places and a spell of rain on Sunday followed by squally wintry showers. Through the week it will slowly become less chilly as winds back Westerly again with more rain followed by showers, this time more focused on Northern and Western Britain though all areas will continue to see some rain. Through the second week more of a split between the output is shown all revolving around how much influence High pressure to the South and SW extends it's influence up across the British isles. The most supported option is for High pressure to locate either close to the SW or South with something of a westerly feed continuing across all areas with some rain at times in the North and west while all areas probably become less chilly with average temperatures and a lot of cloud across the UK. The GFS operational goes further with this rise in pressure and locates a centre over or to the East and this would result in settled weather for all with frosts and fog patches at night and bright, sunny days but it is in the minority at the moment. So after a period of volatility it looks like for Southern Britain at least the Azores High will again become dominant with benign weather returning with time and if not bringing us particularly Springlike conditions at least preventing any excursion into anything particularly wintry either.  

Issued at 08:30 Friday February 20th 2015

Quite clear 'winner' here.

Perhaps my last post here until November (if I'm still around!).

About as boring a climax to winter as I can remember in my 10 years on here.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

High Pressure Hint's For March With JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Very unsettled end to February, but spring might be on the way.