according to fergie high pressure will be back and prob dominating by mid march he mentioned a few days ago. gav said JMA  shows hints, cant wait, and a nice new spring thread too 

lets hope it is orientated in an advantageous position to allow some decent temperatures and a little sunshine! Spring isn't far away now!

Just hope that the temperatures are what they should be for March and not what they should be in June! We had summer-like weather in March 2012 and the summer that followed was one of the worst ones ever in this country. That's always worth bearing in mind IMO.

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Possibly, but then you can say that about pretty much any weather type that far out. Remember it wasn't all that long ago that quite a few people were saying that it looked likely to be dry and high pressure dominated right out to the end of February....

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Too true , a dry Feb looked a cert

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and showery NW flow will give way to a ridge of high pressure crossing East over the UK tonight followed by active Atlantic frontal systems moving into the UK from the West tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and very windy weather seems likely  with strong winds and heavy rain or wintry showers before Southern areas in particular become possibly drier and more settled later

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows much variability in both strength and positioning over the coming two weeks. The flow will dive South over the coming days to lie to the South of the UK before undulating back North at times later though remaining positioned less far North than yesterday morning's output, most likely crossing West to East across the UK in a strong surface Westerly flow.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a cold few days early next week in gale west then NW winds and wintry showers. Milder air then crosses East midweek with a spell of rain for all before colder showery conditions return by the end of the week, less pronounced in the South as pressure rises. then a mild SW flow develops across the UK next weekend which leads us into changeable conditions in Week 2 with westerly winds and rain at times always heaviest over the North with lengthy dry spells further South in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is also showing very changeable conditions throughout the fortnight with not too much influence from the Azores High other than to temper the cold NW flows behind troughs of Low pressure. As a result spells of rain will alternate with coder periods with showers, wintry at times before the next pulse of milder SW winds take hold.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a mixture of options ranging from High pressure close to Southern Britain with the UK in a mild westerly drift to Low pressure close to northern Scotland or to the NE with gales, heavy rain and showers most likely for all. The balance of at the moment is in favour of the former option or a version thereof being the most likely.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a changeable working week of weather next week bookended by cold, very windy and bright weather with NW winds and showers by a mild and windy period midweek as rain spreads East over all areas.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning remain in support of the main UKMO run with a cold and strong Westerly flow early in the week replaced by a couple of active warm fronts midweek bringing milder and wet conditions across the UK from Wednesday.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a very unsettled 10 days across the whole UK as Westerly winds, strong at times maintain the passage of active troughs of Low pressure each bringing their own version of heavy rain and showers, wintry at times in the North.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is also supportive of a Westerly flow of weather next week. As with the rest it shows very windy and cold conditions early in the week giving way to milder and rather wet conditions later, especially in the North, though not exclusively so.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows slow improvements taking place from the South starting later next week. In the interim period showers and gale force Westerly winds become replaced by cloudy, milder conditions midweek and thereafter too in the North. Further South pressure is shown to steadily rise and rain from ever weakening fronts should die out next weekend and beyond with dry and fairly mild conditions developing by Day 10.

 http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to paint a synoptic pattern that has been repeated several times this Winter in our unsettled spells in that there is likely to be an Icelandic Low pressure in 10 days with High pressure near the Azores with Westerly winds and rain at times predominating across the UK, especially in the North in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems a lot of variation in the extent of improvements from the South longer term with a mixture of maintained unsettledness and drier more settled weather between the output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.2. At 5 days ECM just continues to lead the field at 89.8 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 85.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.6 pts over GFS's 60.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.2 pts over GFS at 40.6.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main talking point between the output is all centred on what extent improvements in the weather develop on the anticipated build of pressure from the South or SW in the longer term. There is a lot of agreement in the way things should shape up over the coming week with the cold and very windy spell early in the week delivering some potent showers for many, wintry on quite modest hills even in the South for a time. then milder West or SW winds engulf the UK in rain before another push of colder air behind a cold front crosses SE late in the week, this time less potent in the South. It's from that point that models diverge between a continuation of very changeable conditions in a strong westerly feed and a Jet stream less far North than was shown a day or so ago for this period or a build of High pressure close enough to Southern Britain to dampen down the influence of the troughs still affecting the North at that time. What will likely be more guaranteed is that the temperatures will become closer to average with less cold polar maritime interventions, especially across the South and the possibility of some warm sunshine in any breaks in the cloud under any tropical air masses that pass across. Being mindful of the Met Office March predictions of the Azores High becoming a major player ridging towards the UK is of yet unclear within the output. Their predictions of fine sunny weather with the High near or over the UK look some way off yet with a slower build of that pressure to that sort of resolution shown today than was a day or so ago. Nevertheless, taking away the severe gales and isolated snowfall events of the next few days there looks like being nothing too dramatic to confront us in the weather over the following 10-14 days.  

Issued at 08:30 Saturday February 21st 2015

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MetO updated their snow warning for Northern Britain Sunday to Tuesday, could be some big snowfall totals Cumbria northwards above 1,000 feet and many areas above 300 feet could see lying snow over the next few days.

As always in these cases difficult to judge extent of snow but with sea surface temperatures at their lowest now opportunities are plenty for low level snow over northern UK during the next few days.

Again, Glasgow seems in the firing line.

Andy

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Yes I would agree with that Andy. Unlikely to see anything more wintry than sleet but the warnings suggest somewhere could get quite a bit (especially on higher ground)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/ 

First for tomorrow:

"Rain, sleet and snow is expected to spread east on Sunday. Rain is expected at lower levels across northern England and the southern half of Scotland, but further north snow falling to lower levels at times especially the far north and northeast of Scotland. Accumulations of 2 to 5 cm are expected in places above 150 m, with 10 cm or more over high ground above 300 m. Winds will gust to over 50 mph on coasts and hills, leading to drifting and blizzard conditions on high level routes.

The public should be aware of difficult driving conditions and the risk of disruption to transport.

This is an update to the alert issued on Friday morning."

Then for Monday and Tuesday:

"Frequent hail, sleet and snow showers are expected on Monday and persisting through much of Tuesday. Accumulations of 5 to 10 cm are possible to low levels across Scotland and Northern Ireland, whilst up to 20 cm of snow can be expected over higher ground here. Across northern England accumulations to low levels are likely to be transient, whilst on hills 10 cm or more of snow is possible. Icy patches are possible at times on untreated, and mainly sheltered, surfaces, especially on Monday night. Winds will be generally strong, with gusts of 60 mph or more likely at times, especially on coasts and hills.

This warning is an update of the alert issued on Friday, with the same warning area, but extending the warning period into Tuesday, including a warning of ice, and updating the warning text. "

Apologies if these belong elsewhere but I didn't think it would be noticed/appreciated if they were posted to a new thread.

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Thank goodness it looks like lowland England and Wales will miss most of the snow and wintry mix- it feels fantastic in the sun out there today and it's towards Spring I am looking now.

I know this is all FI and I won't take any notice of this chart but I am curious as to why this N. Easterly is so mild?? - Scandi Highs are much colder if I recall!?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

 

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I'm not so sure Jacko, Monday looks as though a few places ( you ) could see quite a few passing wintry showers in a strong cold NWly

You have been looking towards Spring since October

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deep Low pressure area will move East to the NW of Scotland and send active fronts quickly East today and tonight followed by a very strong and cold showery Westerly flow tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy with rain at times and hill snow across the North at first. Milder generally later and maybe drier in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows a strong West to East flow across the Atlantic through this week and down across the UK ahead of fronts and retreating back North in their wake. Longer term the flow appears to weaken and becomes more diffuse as multiple options are shown.

http://www.netweathe...ction=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a very changeable week ahead with spell of wind and rain later today and again midweek book ended with cold and showery weather with gales in the North. The cold period late in the week will be much less pronounced over the South and replaced quite quickly everywhere with mild SW winds with occasional rain almost anywhere at times but chiefly towards the North and West. High pressure develops near the UK late in the run migrating NE and threatening the quiet weather with bright days and frosty night with a cold East wind over the South to end the period with the threat of wintry showers in the SE.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run differs only in as much as it keeps the UK windier and more unsettled for longer into the second week as the strong Westerly flow persists. It's not until late in the run that High pressure becomes most influential just to the South with temperatures throughout the run gradually returning to average values after the variability of those in the first week.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters support a 60/40 split in favour of Atlantic westerly winds driving the weather across the UK in two weeks time. The 60% show High pressure to the SW with Low pressure to the North driving rain bearing fronts east across the UK periodically. The 40% show a mix of high pressure just to the SE or North-West with fine weather for many with frosts by night.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning looks distinctly changeable under Westerly or NW winds. There will be spells of rain alternating with showers all week with temperatures fluctuating between mild on Wednesday and Saturday and rather cold on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning support the operational well with an active Westerly flow across the Atlantic maintaining changeable conditions across the UK alternating between wet and windy weather and sunshine and showers, wintry on hills especially in the North all in association with active troughs crossing West to east across the UK all week.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a very changeable pattern too with a lot of rather cold and showery weather between occasional bands of milder SW winds with rain. It's not until the last few frames of the run that High pressure noses more meaningfully towards the West of the UK in the wake of a cold Northerly.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a breezy and changeable week with some sunshine but occasional rain at times in the form of showers in cold West or NW winds and a band of wet and windy weather midweek in a brief milder interlude. Then late in the week a milder SW flow takes hold more substantially with rain at times especially in the North and West.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows  a much more unsettled period throughout the duration of the run today with a strong west to east flow over the Atlantic maintained and delivering the UK spells of wet and windy weather in somewhat milder weather and colder more showery spells especially over the North where snow could fall at times particularly over the coming week. The run ends with a small but vigorous Low near to NW Ireland with rain and gales for all.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows a familiar pattern of High to the South and Low to the North in a broad Westerly flow. With less of a cyclonic NW direction to the flow and more of a SW to West then the incidence of tropical maritime air influences across the UK especially the South is likely to be greater than of late.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are still mixed messages from the output today of how much and what impact High pressure has across the UK in Week 2 with a variety of options shown not all for fine weather.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM just continues to lead the field at 90.0 pts over UKMO at 88.0 pts and GFS at 85.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.7 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.6 pts over GFS at 40.6.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Improvements in the current changeable, unsettled pattern of weather across the UK look quite slow again from this morning's output. Both UKMO and ECM continue to paint a very changeable pattern as we move into March but probably less of polar maritime rather cold weather than of late but still with wind and rain prominent at times. There are variations on a changeable theme from GEM longer term and NAVGEM looks broadly similar.. The main culprit of the slow build of pressure lies with a Jet flow which refuses to lie down and repeatedly flattens any ridging from the Azores High. As this High extends more influence towards Iberia and the Med later winds will back off somewhat towards the SW or West which should see temperatures recover somewhat across the UK with less influence of any cold pools behind cold fronts to the NW. Nevertheless if it's sustained fine and sunny Spring weather your looking for as we enter March you may have to wait a little longer yet. GFS is worth a mention as it shows a cold High to the North and NE and the threat of something cold from the East late in the operational's run but it is poorly supported and will likely be removed in the upcoming 6Z and 12z runs. So in Summary typical early March weather seems likely over the next few weeks with a Westerly flow most likely delivering some rain for all, especially across the North and West with some brighter and chillier phases when patchy frost is likely by night otherwise temperatures look broadly close to average for much of the time after this coming week.  

Issued at 08:30 Sunday February 22nd 2015

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A bit late now to offer this lol

A huge outlier of course

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Trend of HP setting up to the East perhaps ??

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Good, I'm hoping for a sunny, settled period so I can put my solar powered lights out for the first time this year..

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Me too, but I just hope that should we get one, the temperatures don't go unseasonably high. I'm still mindful of March 2012 and all that came after that.

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Well said David - And remember April 2007. Hardly beasr worth thinking about.

 

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I've been watching the Friday-Monday period as I have a long weekend off... seems to be yet another case of the Atlantic jet being projected too far north by the models in the 8-10 day range, adjusting south as the period moves into the 6-7 day range and extra shortwaves are picked up on, these associated with originally overlooked peaks in jet stream intensity.

To be fair, ECM hasn't been nearly as guilty of this as GFS, with the weekend looking a close call even on the most promising runs.

It reflects the usual GFS bias at play - powering the jet NE too readily, which makes a big difference in terms of the UK's weather when the broad scale trough is to our W and/or NW.

 

It actually looks like it could rain on both days of the weekend itself as a rapid succession of shortwaves rattles through. In fact there could be three frontal boundaries in 48 hours on that ECM 12z op run.

Details up for grabs but might be one for getting those odd jobs done in the shed or whatever.

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Easterly again on offer........too late

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A little bit of support for it

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and strong Westerly flow will blow across the UK today slowly veering NW tomorrow as a depression moves slowly east to the north of the UK.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy with rain at times and hill snow across the North especially at first. Possibly milder more generally later and maybe drier in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows a strong West to East flow across the Atlantic through this week before it weakens somewhat as it moves back more to the North of the UK later in the period.

http://www.netweathe...ction=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a very changeable week ahead with the cold and showery period until Wednesday giving way to a milder interlude midweek with some rain and a return to cold and windy weather with showers to end the week. thereafter the pattern becomes more confused with High pressure gradually taking control of the weather, first to the South and then to the NE which becomes more meaningful as it changes the milder complexion to one of colder weather with winds blowing across from Europe and pressure falling to the West.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run is broadly similar throughout it's run today with the same High pressure influence to the South moving over to the East later and suggesting a chance of a chilly ridge from the European High affecting at least parts of the UK at the end of the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters this morning look largely supportive of High pressure lying close to the UK with a spread of options ranging from a centre to the SE, SW or across Southern Britain with only Northern areas likely to be seeing rain of any note at that time.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning looks distinctly changeable under Westerly or NW winds. There will be spells of rain alternating with showers all week with temperatures fluctuating between mild on Wednesday and rather cold thereafter with showers, wintry in places.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show changeable conditions across the UK this week with various troughs bringing their own alternating pattern of milder and wetter conditions with colder showery periods in West or NW winds.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM  GEM this morning shows a sustained period of strong Westerly winds with fast moving troughs delivering spells of rain followed by showers, wintry at times. This pattern continues unabated right out to day 10 on this morning's run.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also maintains a Westerly flow across the UK through the next week with some milder weather at times but with colder interludes too with showers turning wintry over the hills at times.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the same basic pattern as yesterday with High pressure gradually creeping closer to the South with time gradually lessening the impacts of the otherwise persistent Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times and fluctuating temperatures..

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows a familiar pattern of High to the South and Low to the North in a broad Westerly flow. With less of a cyclonic NW direction to the flow and more of a SW to West then the incidence of tropical maritime air influences across the UK especially the South is likely to be greater than of late.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are still mixed messages from the output today of how much and what impact High pressure has across the UK in Week 2 with a variety of options shown not all for fine weather.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM just continues to lead the field at 89.9 pts over UKMO at 88.1 pts and GFS at 86.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 63.2 pts over GFS's 59.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.2 pts over GFS at 41.6.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There is little change in the output this morning than that shown yesterday in that all interest focuses on how much influence building High pressure has if any on the weather across the UK in a week or so. There are many certainties over this week in that changeable and sometimes rather cold weather will prevail with rain and showers at times in fluctuating temperatures as depressions continue to roll East to the North of the UK sending their associated troughs across the UK. We then look to the South and SW to see if High pressure develops close enough to our shores to restrict rain and showers to more Northern areas or not. Those that show this notbaly ECM will bring a slow cessataion of rain and wind from Southern areas later but probably not to the North. GFS takes us on a much closer excursion into High pressure with the clusters showing a variety of positions for this to lie while the operational and Control run takes High pressure to Eastern Europe and throwing a strong ridge back West to at least control part of the UK's weather in a colder continental drift. So all in all it's a pay your money and take your choice sort of option today between maintained unsettled and windy weather with rain and wintry showers, ala GEM and also UKMO as far as it goes to a slow build of High pressure to the South of the UK with more benign conditions and less cold air via ECM. As far as the GFS control and operational go I think I will rather take the route of the clusters in that High pressure will lie close to Southern Britain in 10-14 days rather than any feed from Europe though it is an interesting philosophy and not the first time it has been shown. So still another week of occasionally volatile weather to come and for some like me this morning a surprise snowfall is not out of the question almost anywhere in the chilly polar maritime incursions which look like dominating for a while yet.  

Issued at 08:30 Monday February 23rd 2015

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Thanks, Gibby, especially the verification analysis - not easy to find in a simple comparative format elsewhere

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As the wet bulb potential temperatures (reflecting how cold it could get with evaporative cooling) fall close to zero from around noon today, any showers heavy or prolonged enough could transition quite readily to snow.

Plenty of activity showing up to the west at the moment so it could be an interesting day to watch unfold. Accumulations unlikely to amount to much though, given significant (for the time of year) solar heating between the showers.

 

Tomorrow looks like it could turn out quite reasonable across the SE in particular as skies clear, despite a chilly wind. Wednesday could prove a usable day too depending on how far NE a decaying frontal boundary makes it, and how much rain is left on it following what looks like a soggy night for much of England and Wales.

Wave development is now being picked up on for Thursday's frontal system, this occurring close to Southern England with the potential to slow or stall the frontal boundary for a time, with enhanced precipitation rates threatening to bring another overnight soaker.

After all those signs of persistent high pressure in the output about a week back, February could end up coming in wetter than average IMBY.

 

Still at least a couple of frontal systems showing up for next weekend, with the potential for a bit of a wind event too depending on how well shortwave lows engage with a fairly active jet stream.

Then we once again see strong HP showing up for the UK in the 9-10 day range. Will this one survive as the date draws nearer?

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Using my observations over the past 11 years, a correlation of spring mean temperature with summer mean temperature produces an R-square value of just 0.0529 at best, which means there's about as little correlation as you can have.

Similar results were obtained correlating spring rainfall with summer temperature.

But get this... a correlation of spring sunshine with summer temperature gives an R-square of 0.572, which while far from strong, is a surprisingly high value (out of a possible 1.0 for a perfect correlation)... but with the low data count, hardly significant on its own.

 

I'll see if I can locate historic data for total sunshine and mean temperature by month.

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