thanks gibby, early spring sounds great,    it will soon be winter  

hopefully we'll have clear skies for the eclipse on the 20th

---

Very much looking forward to it as I will be at home in the morning.

Meanwhile I am very happy to see Spring on the way with low to mid teen temps so hopefully the winter is finally put to bed.  I know we will get some cold weather but hopefully much lesser now.  Car boot sales will be opening sometime this month too.  As long as we get warmer not to get temps too high like March 2012 which lead to a very poor summer.  Normally highest March temps are often around 17-18C which is very good enough to enjoy outside.  Save the 20's days from April onward.

 

The first 'heat' plume of 2015?

Obviously we're talking relative to average conditions here. Given that GFS, with it's slightly less impressive plume extending not quite so far north, still manages the mid-teens widely across England and Wales, the ECM chart for Sunday could be good for high teens in some spots if there was a good bit of sunshine.

Both models show the plume becoming trapped over the UK, decaying slowly in situ. This could allow temperatures to keep climbing into the mid-teens across England in particular for two to three days into the following week.

Amplification to the upstream pattern does then bring the risk of the high drifting far north enough to pull in some chillier air from the east across southern parts at least. A few years ago, you'd be brave to bet against that, with the NAO climbing sharply as the high then heads toward Greenland, but the past couple of years have tended to favour highs being held further south with the NAO staying more negative.

It is possible that the NAO does tend to favour certain states for months or even years on end as a result of conditions elsewhere in the globe (in particular, the temperatures across Indonesia), which would then go some way to explaining the loss of favourism for the pattern to amplify with LP digging south and heights rising at the higher latitudes.

 

So at this stage, I feel a UK high is about as far north as the ridge is likely to get... but that can still allow an easterly to affect the far south at times so I'll be making the most of the warm (relative to LTA) weekend if it verifies, just in case.

---

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and showery Westerly airflow will cover the UK through the period with minor troughs swinging East in the flow enhancing spells of rain or showers, wintry in places.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Steadily becoming more settled and bright with time but some rain still possible along with stronger winds at times in the NW.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow blowing strongly West to East just to the South of the UK for the next few days before it migrates North to a position between Scotland and Iceland on a NE course later this week and further on as a result of rising pressure from the South of the UK.

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows the cold westerly flow with wintry showers giving way to fine conditions in a NW wind on Wednesday as a ridge of High pressure moves in from the West. then a milder SW feed of winds accompanies a band of drizzly rain SE later in the week with pressure rising further for many with fine and settled weather affecting all areas for a time with very mild and bright conditions in the South next weekend. Through the remainder of the run High pressure remains close to the South keeping largely fine and bright and mild conditions here while the North and West see pulses of rain from troughs crossing East interrupting the drier periods at times.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is very similar in type through the period although specific day to day details differ from the operational. Nevertheless the theme is one of South being best in West or SW breezes, strong in the North at times but always mild with a lot of dry and sometimes bright weather in the South mixed with some rain at times in the North but with fine and dry spells here as well in between passing fronts.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters this morning almost without exception show High pressure close to the UK, likely just to the SE or East of the UK bathing the UK in mild SW'lies, light in the South and stronger in the NW where occasional rain looks likely.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a North/South split in the weather late this week as High pressure settles just to the South of the UK feeding mild and bright weather across the South while the North sees much windier weather with gales and spells of rain at times, especially in the far NW.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cold and showery start to the week with rising pressure from the South and a ridge of High pressure crossing East followed by milder SW winds and a weak trough making some progress South across the UK but pushed back North again leaving many Southern areas at least in mild and settled conditions in a SW flow.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a long fetch SW flow developing late this week and next weekend, strong in the North with fronts bringing rain at times while the South becomes dry and bright in more modest strength breezes. High pressure then bilds across the UK for a time before it drifts East and sets up another mild and generally still dry Southerly flow to end the run.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows pressure building close to the South of the UK with a mild SW flow across the UK, strongest in the North for a time before even here drier and less windy conditions develop later with some pleasant mild temperatures for all.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a slow build of High pressure across first Southern Britain late this week and then to all areas as a centre shifts from the UK to the east of the UK maintaining a strong ridge across the UK. Temperatures may be a little more uncertain from this evolution with certainly the risk of night frosts and daytime's which could be mild under any sunshine but rather lower if cloud prevails especially under any Continental drift of wind across the South.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows strong support for a High pressure to lie over the UK in 10 days time with fine and settled weather for all.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards drier and more anticyclonic weather later in the period is sustained within this morning's output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.5 pts over UKMO at 88.6 pts and GFS at 87.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.6 pts over GFS's 60.4 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.5 pts over GFS at 42.5.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There remains the strong likelihood of mild and drier conditions affecting the UK from late this week and more particularly next weekend on. The change may be slower to reach more Northern areas as most output suggests that the milder air will be accompanied by a strong SW feed delivering moist air and occasional rain to Northern and NW areas for some time. In the South the effects of this flow will be much weaker and sufficiently weak enough to allow some cloud breaks to develop in the lee of the hills and temperatures reaching their highest levels so far this year with 15-16C certainly possible. Western coasts though could be dull, drizzly and foggy at times. It also looks as though the North too could join in with High pressure conditions next week as the High pressure belt extends North cutting off the SW feed of moist air. Of course we have to be mindful that it is still just early March and there is every chance that mild conditions could become hampered by cloud amounts or a colder source of air from the East should the centre drift further North than currently anticipated. With the added caveat that quiet and clear skies could also allow frost at night here and there later. Nevertheless, having said all that the weather looks like becoming quite Springlike at times with some decent sunny spells in the South especially and only small if any amounts of rain reaching the South for some considerable time. In the North patience may have to be a virtue before you join in the fine conditions but there is certainly a chance of decent weather up here too at times later. In the far extremities of the output there is no clear signal about where we go as we approach mid March but it maybe that as our High drifts further East more unsettled conditions may begin to encroach down over the UK from the NW but this is far to distant to be given much credence as yet.  

Issued at 09:00 Monday March 2nd 2015

---

Thanks Gibby. I'm especially hoping next weekend is nice and mild/warm here. Many places could be looking at their best weekend since September.

---

I'd prefer the high to be centred about 500 miles further north...

---

Why? Won't that produce cold easterlies bringing murk and haar in from the North Sea? It could deliver in terms of snow and proper cold in January, but at this time of the year it's would be a bit rubbish, especially since the near continent had long since lost the deep cold anyway. Still, it would help to keep the Atlantic Storm Machine at arm's length I suppose.

Mind you, usually the western side of the UK would do well with the best of the sunny breaks . . . aaaaaah, I see what you mean with your location.

The pessimist in me is suggesting that if we end up with too much of a long-fetch south westerly airflow due to the high being too far to the south of us, we may end up with more in the way of low cloud and mist rather than wall-to-wall sunshine over the weekend. But, if it does stay bright for long enough then it would get to feel positively blowtorch mild for it, especially over the Southern half of the UK. I guess that what was your thinking as well.

---

A thousand miles to the NW would be better if you wont true cold Artic air to flood down.

---

Good the jet stream is buggering off to Iceland. Any chance it can stay there until summer is over? (Unlikely unfortunately).

---

Nice one Briggsy, make it so.

---

Fine by me

---

It's starting to look like one of those situations where a longwave pattern (in this case broad mid-Atlantic trough, broad UK/Euro ridge) becomes locked into place for an extended period of time.

In recent years the U.S. has seen such patterns lock in for weeks on end. Whether we experience such a thing will depend in large part on how amplified the jet is - so how far south the it dives in the middle of the North Atlantic and how far north it then soars by the time it reaches as far east as the UK.

Persistent highs in the vicinity of the UK have featured in a number of recent springs... hinting at an interesting response by the climate to increased energy levels (with bigger, warmer plumes of warm air heading poleward in response to seasonal changes) during a time of year that typically favours more amplified jet stream patterns. I'll stop there to avoid wandering too far off topic.

I look upon the upcoming potential for a persistent high in the right place for temperatures some 4-5*C above average by day (but near average by night) with keen eyes, as the winter has been often on the chilly side but with limited reward for enduring the conditions.

---

You just know the price to pay for a warm, dry March will be a miserable summer. I suppose I've been spoilt the last two winters, but most other normal people will want a decent summer too. 

---

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and showery Westerly airflow will veer NW tonight as a ridge of High pressure moves over from the West later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and reasonably mild weather with some sunshine in the South and East but occasional rain possible towards the far NW.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow moving North from a position South of the UK to one between Scotland and Iceland in a NE direction from the end of this week. It remains here for the remainder of the period troughing deeply down over the Atlantic very late in the run.

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows milder Atlantic SW'lies taking control from the end of the week with fronts still affecting the North for a time with rain at times but dry and quiet weather across the South with much milder air here as High pressure lies just to the South. This is then to extend North by next week with some fine and dry weather for all with temperatures on the plus side of average. There are occasional interventions of troughs shown through Week 2 interrupting the fine weather but always short-lived as High pressure rebuilds behind any troughs from a point near the South of the UK with continuing mild air on a Southerly feed.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run supports the operational well this morning drawing High pressure to all areas by early next week along with some pleasantly mild days but with a risk of slight night frosts. High pressure then remains close by warding off all attacks from Atlantic Low pressure until the very final days of the run some two weeks from now.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters this morning offer numerous options with all receiving credible support of evolving. All members focus on the positioning of High pressure either to the East, South or SW of the UK with influence from them extending to most parts of the UK for much of the time though some Low pressure troughs would inevitably affect the NW at times.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a High pressure area close to the South and SE this weekend with a SW flow over the UK, strong in the North with occasional rain while the South sees increasingly very mild air sucked up across these areas from the SW. The High then extends North to all areas at the start of next week with light winds for all and fine Springlike weather likely.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a similar evolution to that shown by the raw data with a change to mild SW winds soon and extending into all areas by the end of the period as High pressure to the South then builds North further across the UK.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM too shows the UK drifting to a more settled period of weather first over the South as High pressure builds here with some fine and warm early Spring sunshine over the weekend. A mild SW flow, strong for a time could continue to bring occasional rain before all areas eventually join in with the fine weather although the North is still shown at risk from occasional rain from weak troughs brushing East to the North of the UK.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows pressure building close to the South of the UK with a mild SW flow across the UK, strongest in the North for a time before even here drier and less windy conditions develop later with some pleasant mild temperatures for all but always the threat of a lot of cloud marring the otherwise sunny and very mild conditions over the South.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure building across the UK next week with a spell of mild and dry weather with some warm sunshine at the weekend slow to affect the North in a stronger SW flow, cloud and occasional rain. High pressure then affects all areas at times though a few annoying small Low pressure areas could deliver a couple of occasions of rain especially in the North and West later next week and again at the end of the run with temperatures falling back to average as a result.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows very Springlike synoptics with High pressure stretching from Southern Scandinavia, the UK and towards the Azores with the Jet Stream harmlessly well away to the NW with plenty of fine and possible very mild weather continuing across all of the UK 10 days from now.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards drier and more anticyclonic weather later in the period is sustained within this morning's output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.5 pts over UKMO at 88.5 pts and GFS at 87.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.0 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.1 pts over GFS at 43.3.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The theme of High pressure becoming the dominating feature controlling the weather across the UK remains within this morning's output. There is over riding support for it to become centred close to the South of the UK innitially affecting Southern areas with some Springlike weather this weekend before extending further North early next week replacing the mild and damp SW flow across Northern areas up to this point. Thereafter it's a place of High pressure shuffling it's positions around in the vicinity of the UK that could make fundamental changes on the effects this High has at the surface. While no cold weather looks likely to develop under this feature amounts of cloud could be rather large at times and put a dent in the otherwise mild temperatures which equally transpires into whether frost develops at night or not. The one constant is that there looks to be little sign of any significant rainfall within the time period this morning with even the rain at first in the North not amounting to much away from the mountains. If we then look at the extremities of the GFS Ensembles and far out data elsewhere it looks like the High might show a desire to shift slowly away to the East or SE allowing some ingress of Atlantic troughs but this is subject to revision many times over up and coming runs and is only mentioned because it's hinted at in these 00z outputs but may well be superseded in the next few runs. So all in all it looks like we need to settle back and enjoy a rest from chasing showers and snowflakes in chilly air to something that could kick start Spring into action in fine and settled weather with the chance of some warm sunshine and a lot of dry weather overall. For gardeners there is of course still the risk of frost by night should night skies clear but daytime's should see temperatures recover well, especially in any sunshine though having said that I think the anticipated high temperatures towards the South and SE this weekend could trend back more towards average values as we move through the period.  

Issued at 09:00 Tuesday March 3rd 2015

---

Didn't think you were into pattern matching Matty?

In all seriousness though, I very much am into pattern matching and a dry and warm March and April would be a big concern in my summer expectations.

Not sure if Kevin (Mr Data) has any correlation data between warm, dry March and Aprils and the corresponding summers.

I'm sure he has though! Over to you Kev.

---

This "quickie at a glance" forecast for Folkestone doesn't really tell the full story and thus doesn't represent the medium range forecast as a whole - but, oh, it is lovely to look at nonetheless . . .

Bank! We've had more than enough rain to keep us going for months in any case.

---

I'm amazed how many people just ignore the fact that statistically, there is close to zero correlation between warm, dry springs and cool, wet summers.

 

Anyway, the GFS 00z op is about as warm as you're ever likely to see for the time of year, with above average temperatures from Saturday onward, climbing as high as 20*C in places on the 15th and 16th days of the run.

Raw data leaves the CET at somewhere around 8.7*C by 18th March which is more than 2*C above the LTA.

 

GEFS plots reveal it to be one of the warmest of the pack - not an outlier, but a high-end solution.

ECM's op is not as warm a run as GFS', as LP does not track quite so favourably days 7-8; GFS keeps it NW of the UK, keeping the UK in the warm sector the whole way, while ECM allows it to sit over Shetland on day 8, allowing some cooler air to influence the UK for a time before the flow turns back to the south as HP rebuilds just east of the UK. The day 10 set up looks good for building some more exceptional warmth much as GFS does.

 

Within the fairly reliable range for situations controlled by high pressure, it's looking ripe for many places to reach toward the mid-teens this weekend and at least a few days into next week, which is pretty good going for the first half of March 

 

---

March and April 2003 both saw an abundance of warm, dry and sunny weather, and I don't recall that summer being a poor one.

---

However, look at 2007, 2008 and 2011.

 

---

March and April 2008 were near average down here?

Obviously 2007 and 2011 stand out with their exceptional Aprils and poor summers. Both were driven by a tendency for blocking highs to set up and stick around for long periods of time. We got lucky with the placement in spring but not in summer.

It's possible that low Arctic sea ice extent encouraged the blocking to locate W and NW of the UK in the summers of 2007 and 2011 - tipping the balance in favour of a poor setup for fine weather.

 

I reckon that if there is dry, warm spring weather tending to be driven by strong ridging through Europe rather than blocking highs at the mid-latitudes, this should not be considered to be in the same light as what we saw in 2007 and 2011, as it reflects a setup that favours mobility in the Atlantic, preventing high latitude blocking from establishing.

Couple this with the fact that, on some occasions, the background setup will change between the spring and summer (which may have happened in 1976, allowing a dry spring full of blocking highs to be followed by a hot, dry summer), and it's easy to see why, over many decades, there is little correlation to be found between the temperatures or precipitation amounts in spring with those of the summer.

 

Here's hoping we see the output sticking closer to something like this for March:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00120030324.gif

 

---

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

A taste Of Spring For The Weekend And Next Week;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Temps up to 15c widely by Sunday.

I wouldn't worry too much about Summer implications at this stage. Just make the most of the first real burst of warmth since November.

#Enjoy

---

Perfect! Cheers Gav. 15 degrees in the sunshine will feel positively balmy. Bring it on. Can't wait.

---

Based on the output I would be inclined to see Saturday as the peak of the warmth (as opposed to Sunday). I think that things may become a bit cooler by Sunday. For many southern/eastern parts Saturday could be the most pleasant day of the year so far.

---

It will still be several weeks before we get comfortable outdoor temperatures here near the southeast coast but 9-12c most days will suffice. For me its the sheer dryness that I am looking forward to the most. 

---