Watching those shortwave lows develop and rotate around within the broad scale trough in the middle of the North Atlantic for days 5-16 of the GFS 12z op run puts me in mind of the pattern that dominated the spring-summer period last year, with the exception of August (no thanks to ex-Bertha!).

One could argue that it's maybe 1000 miles further west this time around, which gets me thinking, because much of the winter just gone was like taking last winter's pattern and shifting it 1000 miles or so west.

Could it be that having substantial cold air outbreaks reaching a long way south over the U.S. tends to encourage a mid-North Atlantic trough/Euro High type pattern to evolve through the spring, thanks to the enhanced thermal gradient in the western North Atlantic coupled with the typical west-east length of the trough/ridge combination shortening?

If we do see such a pattern verify for a good part of March, it will be a very interesting development in my books  though perhaps nothing special at the surface temperature wise (at best a degree Celsius above average from GFS).

ECM is essentially in support of that broad theme unfolding, though surface conditions are chillier due to the orientation of the high in the 6-10 day range; cold air spilling down the eastern flank of the strong high pressure cell is drawn all the way west to the UK due to there being sufficient low pressure south of the high (over or near the Mediterranean).

Both offer a lot of dry weather for the SE in particular, which shouldn't prove too troublesome for the most part thanks to those high ground water levels after such a soggy couple of years.

Some colder looking charts in FI from next weekend, plus interesting longer term options. Typical!

Martin

Unable to post my report this morning as maximum word limit per post is exceeded so viewers can read it here.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

The ECM 00z brings in cold easterlies with a chance of some wintry showers quite possible later next week.

GFS does this to but not as cold but looking very interesting in FI with all eyes to the N/NE.

Duane all eyes may be NE but it really takes something exceptional from mid-March to get snow to low levels and in a season of benign unexceptionality I can't see a ENE flow now being of any use whatsoever, only to make everyone miserable and delay the arrival of welcome warm spring sunshine (like today).

Still, I will keep half an eyelash on it though

snow is  fairly common in march. In terms of snow falling, low-ground Scotland can expect ~5 days, Nothern England ~3 days, Midlands ~2 days and Southern England 1 day.

For lying snow we would expect at least 1 day for Northern England, Scotland and N Ireland every year. For the Midlands probably once every 2 or 3 years.  

Really then it is only lying snow that is hard to get, to get falling snow, the criteria are really not that different from in winter, and the airmasses not substantially harder to get. I don't think what we have on offer has any chance of producing though, the Scandi high is caused by WAA from the south and lies south of the jet stream, consequently the only way of advecting proper cold air (enough to support snow) to the UK is to reposition the high further north or west. Some of the ensembles do actually show this, but most don't, so unfortunately all that is on offer is annoyingly chilly conditions.

But perhaps things will change.

Another failed easterly? I'm still in hibernation, but with half an eyelid open

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015030712/gens-15-1-384.png

P15 on 12Z GFS is worth a glance even if it is unsupported and at the wrong end of the run 

Hmm, I think we should ask ourselves "is late really better than never?"

Oh and no power in the 'verse will stop my snow risk maps except Summer.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY MARCH 8TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front is moving SE over England and Wales, clearing the SE later and followed by a transient ridge and a new set of fronts crossing the UK from the West tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain. Temperatures will be close to average overall.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow across the North of the UK through the upcoming days before moving the axis further to the NW to Iceland next weekend. The flow then becomes much less defined as it remains well South over the Atlantic and linking to a weaker Southern arm for a time in Week 2 before edging back North over the UK..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a rather changeable week to come as High pressure moves close to the South at times but with a series of troughs in the SW flow crossing too at times with occasional rain for many. Then High pressure builds strongly to the NE of the UK switching winds to a fresh to strong ESE flow developing with unsettled weather affecting the West of the UK in particular later before winds slowly veer back towards a more unsettled SW flow towards the end of the run with rain at times for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run makes rather less of the High pressure influence to the East in Week 2  though the set-up to get is to that point in the synoptics is the same as the operational. As a result of the lesser influence of the High pressure to the East and as a result Low pressure invades from the West long before the end of the period with rain at times and rather chilly conditions at times too.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The story from the GFS clusters this morning is a mixed one with a lot of members suggesting a West or NW flow around High pressure to the SW and low to the North or NE with rain at times while a somewhat lesser group suggest High pressure more influential close to the UK with resultant drier and fine weather.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a changeable week of weather to come with some rain for all especially later as a depression moves across the UK late in the working week clearing up from the South over next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex synoptic pattern through the week with High pressure never far away from the South but marred by the inception of quite active troughs moving East across the UK on occasion with rain at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a changeable pattern through the coming week with rain at times as successive troughs cross the UK from the West. High pressure strengthens to the East of the UK from next weekend with a ridge back towards Southern Britain leading to more settled conditions then with any rain then restricted to the NW in a SW flow still here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure developing over the UK at the end of the coming week with the changeable theme of earlier in the week replaced by fine conditions by next weekend. thereafter the High is shown to move East with a weakening ridge West to the UK maintaining fine conditions for many before fronts approach the West and NW at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a similar pattern to the majority of output in it's changeable them over the coming working week. We then see pressure build strongly to the NE of the UK with winds switching Easterly over the weekend and start to the new week. These East winds could bring a lot of cloud and suppressed temperatures with a little rain in places as some instability in the flow is shown.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart supports the evolution of the operational well with High pressure over Europe extending a strong ridge back across the UK with the Jet stream blowing harmlessly away well to the North of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a continuing trend to rise pressure to the NE of the UK over the second half of the output this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.7 pts over UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 87.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.5 pts over GFS's 60.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.1 pts over GFS at 43.4.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The pattern of weather over the next few weeks remains fairly benign meteorologically with High pressure in a couple of different guises remaining influential across the UK. Despite this it doesn't mean that the weather will be dry or sunny with troughs of Low pressure over this coming week still a thorn in the side for the UK as they cross East delivering occasional rain at times and maintaining a lot of cloud and holding temperatures to normal values for mid March. Then after this week High pressure transfers from a position close to the South to a position NE of the UK probably extending a ridge back West over at least the South of the UK and possibly further North as well. This will have the effect of bringing a lot of dry if rather cloudy skies across from the East and a chill in the air too for many. Also as this pattern develops pressure will be encouraged to fall over the Atlantic with the ever increasing risk that Atlantic troughs will brush up against the blocking ridge and High pressure and threaten some rain towards the West later possibly extending further east with tome as the block weakens. However, all this remains speculative at best at such a range and it could be that High pressure holds on for longer with dry or fairly dry conditions persisting for most. There is little sign of anything particularly noteworthy weather wise in this morning's output with dry weather outweighing the short wetter spells of this week and again late in the period. It looks unlikely that it will get particularly mild or cold though it will feel chilly under any persistent cloud and any breeze from the East.  

Issued at 09:00 Sunday March 8th 2015

Amazing how easy it is to get those easterly winds going.... When it's not winter! 

It won't be the first time it's happened though, assuming that what is shown on the current model output verifies as shown.

Although we saw cold spells in January & February 2013, the cold that developed at the start of March that then persisted for the rest of that month and into April was more potent than what we saw in Jan & Feb. I'm fairly sure as well that March 2013 returned a lower CET than any of the three preceding meteorological winter months did.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MARCH 9TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A small but vigorous depression will move NE across the far NW of Britain today with troughs sweeping east over the UK followed by a ridge of High pressure tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain. Temperatures will be close to average overall.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow across the North of the UK through the upcoming days before moving the axis further to the NW to Iceland next weekend. The flow then becomes much less defined later as it becomes deflected by High pressure across Europe.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a rather changeable week to come as High pressure moves close to the South at times but with a series of troughs in the SW flow crossing too at times with occasional rain for many. Then High pressure builds across Europe and keeping a ridge back towards the Southern portion of the UK. then as this High declines a new one to the North follows a short unsettled spell as Low pressure affects the UK moving slowly SE. The run ends with High pressure to the west with a ridge across the Uk with a lot of fine weather around.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run makes rather less of the High pressure influence in Week 2 as the High over Europe declines and allows lower pressure to become established, substantially later with stronger West winds and rain at times for all in two weeks time.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The story from the GFS clusters this morning is still a mixed one with a variety of options involving the proximity of High pressure to the South and whether or not Low pressure to the north influences all of the UK or just the North while 15% show an Atlantic High and a cold Northerly flow.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a changeable week of weather to come with some rain for all especially later as fronts moves across the UK through the working week clearing up from the South over next weekend as a ridge from a large European High extends back across the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex synoptic pattern through the week with High pressure never far away from the South but marred by the inception of quite active troughs moving East across the UK with rain at times before Day 5 shows a halting of the frontal passages just to the East of the UK as High pressure builds across the South of the UK.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM Following the passage of Low pressure troughs across the UK this week High pressure to the NE or North over the second half of the run brings drier and more settled conditions across the UK later in a slack east or SE flow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows more settled conditions developing late in the week and next weekend as the High over Europe extends a ridge west to the South of the UK. Troughs do threaten the extreme west and NW at the start to next week though.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure too building from the East next week as winds switch towards the East rather than the SW. As a result dry weather will prevail for a time although unstable air aloft could bring some showers West across the South of the UK later perhaps extending to other areas too late in the period as temperatures struggle to reach average levels at times.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart remains largely unchanged with a large Continental High pressure extending back through the British Isles to the Azores with fine and dry weather for all

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for a period of High pressure based weather from a centre over Europe reamins today.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.7 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.5. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.9 pts over UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 87.5. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 68.2 pts over GFS's 61.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.0 pts over GFS at 44.1.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There remains little overall change in the synoptic weather pattern for the next few weeks from what was shown yesterday with High pressure over Europe dominating the weather across many parts of the UK next week following this weeks very changeable conditions with occasional wind and rain. The dominance of this High looks like being in the shape of a ridge West towards Suthern England with light winds but not necessarily sunny skies. In fact it looks like a lot of cloud could be dragged across in the flow with temperatures suppressed as a result. It is likely that the West would see the best of any cloud breaks. Then we have to look to the models that indicate the demise of this High in preference to more unsettled conditions towards the end of the period and that honour goes to the GFS operational and control as well it's ensemble data who indicate more of a Westerly flow returning by 14 days time. ECM has some instability shown within it's later stages as the Easterly flow from a ridge further North than other models show give rise to showery rain later moving West from Europe. All these though are nuances in a rather themed High pressure pattern and in general after this weeks occasional wind and rain events next week looks rather better and if we can get the sunshine to pop out between the rather cloudy skies then it could feel very Springlike in places but any drift of wind from the East such as the ECM operational shows could make things rather cold and raw. It's a case of wait and see how the High to the East transpires late this week before we can give a more affirmed prediction of how surface events in any one place pan out next week.   

Issued at 09:00 Monday March 9th 2015

Thank you Martin.. Should play havoc with CET figures going up and down.

That's correct David. March 2013 with a CET of 2.7C was colder than the 3 preceding winter months of February, January and the December. I think that has only happened a handful of times as well.

It was a great March, that.

Agreed, although no doubt a lot of people out there would have preferred it to have come during any one of the three preceding months.

We had a decently snowy January, too

But I know what you mean. The problem with January was that cold was too fleeting and not particularly deep, so snow cover didn't last more than a couple of days. If we'd had the March set-up in the January, it would indeed have been a better cold spell.

It is, Easterly winds are normally so difficult to get going let alone set up yet here we have it with ECM leading the way and now quite good agreement across the other models regarding next week's easterly spell.  Perhaps of interest is how cold the air will be, the most likely outcome is a nagging breeze with drizzle in the wind and temperatures 6-8c,maybe a shade colder than that but either way not a pleasant direction mid March at any rate. ECM may still be overdoing it a bit but even so, far milder than March 2013 at any rate - will be interesting to see if the JMA / CFS have it right and this HP cell migrates out to the western side of the Atlantic by the end of the month. Still the odd hint of retrogression to Greenland in the odd run so needs watching ( as per Gavin's video).

Let's hope the other rare thing of late (northern blocking) does not decide to appear in Summer- would be about right! 

Yes and no :)

It was meteorologically fascinating of course but January and February had already been quite cold and to see winter just dragging on like that, remember it lasted well into April, well it was getting rather desperate. The freezing winds and the dried, dessicated landscape. The yellow grass at first glance could be mistaken for a hot, dry summer!