So it looks like we have a fourth consecutive month close to the 1971-2000 mean in terms of temperature. As we move towards April there is little sign of any significant warm in the immediate future. But April has seen some very warm temperatures in recent years. Last year was the fourth time in eight years that the CET exceeded 10C in April.
Please post your April CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Tuesday evening (31st). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 April.
April historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
As noted above the April CET has exceeded 10C four times in the last eight years including last year. The warmest April on record was 11.8C in 2011. We did have 2 consecutive cold Aprils in 2012 and 2013 with 7.2C and 7.5C respectively.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 8.1C
1981-2010: 8.5C
1995-2014: 9.0C
Here is a chart of the April CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average
Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.
GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
850s are at times below average to start the month but then a little above average for the rest of the run. T2m temperatures follow a similar pattern.
ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
De Bilt ECM data looks somewhat below average
Met office
Contingency planners forecast not yet available.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
Looks to be close to average overall
Pattern matching (just for fun)
If we look at years since 1950 with a CET for the first three months similar to this year there are 15 matches. Only 4 of these saw a CET significantly above average. 7 years are close to average and 4 are well above average. So no real trend there. If we look at years where the CET was close to average in each of the first three months of the year (as per 2015) then we have 2 years close to average and 1 year well below average.
So overall there is no real clear pattern emerging this month from looking at prior years.
Edited by moderator
14 May 2015 10:34:53
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Reason: Not specified