HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY APRIL 10TH 2015
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will move East across the UK tonight and tomorrow with a colder Westerly airflow following to all.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more changeable over the North with rain at times next week while the South and East stays largely dry and bright and possibly quite warm at times.Possibly rather colder for all later with frost at night.
THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow settling across the UK on a NE track over the next few days. It then moves back North towards a position to the NW of Scotland where it remains for the rest of next week and weekend. then there are signs of it dicing SE across the UK as pressure builds across the Atlantic.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure largely in control of the UK weather over the next week to 10 days as it shiffles around largely to the SE of the UK at first and then over the UK later. Then through Week 2 pressure rises over the Atlantic which threatens the introduction of colder NW or North winds across the UK with some showers, wintry on hills.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run has the same theme with the South seeing the biggest benefits of High pressure to the SE or over the UK next week before week 2 also features a change to cold and unsettled conditions thereafter as Low pressure establishes to the NE and High pressure to the SW or West.
THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters have firmed up on the shift towards colder and more unsettled weather at the two week point with Low pressure likely to be near Scotland and a chilly West or NW flow with rain at times likely across the UK. There is very little support for any meaningful High pressure affecting the UK at that point from this morning's pack.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
UKMO UKMO shows High pressure building for a time early next week positioned close to the SE with warm and bright conditions likely for the South and East for a time. It is not shown to last though as a cold front moves across the UK from the West or NW by Day 6 with fresh and bright weather returning.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts reflect the rise of pressure early next week replacing the troughs that meander about across the UK from tonight and again over Sunday.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.
GEM GEM today also shows High pressure largely controlling conditions across the UK but increasingly in the wrong place to maintain the warm and fine weather currently. Splicing the spells of High pressure controlled weather will be occasional troughs moving SE across the UK each bringing a little rain and lowering temperatures with winds eventually settling more from a colder North or NW point.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure to the SE brnging fine and warm conditions early next week gradually becoming replaced by colder air from the North as the pressure gradient is reversed to High pressure to the NW later although on this run dry weatehr is largely maintained.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.
ECM ECM today is showing quite complex synoptics as we move through the run, largely under High pressure though with complications. The centre of the High is shown to the South early next week with some warm air wafting across the UK. It then looks like High pressure across the Atlantic ridges East across the UK with some fresher air which then leads us into a quiet and benign period of light winds, variable cloud, the odd shower in the SW and temperatures respectable enough but best in the South.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows very flat conditions across the UK in 10 days with mostly High pressure dominated weather with plenty of sunshine and pleasantly warm conditions.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning are continuing to show an increased risk of rather cold air moving down from the North after the next week although ECM in particular looks less keen on this scenario with fine and bright conditions under High pressure close by.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 90.6 pts over UKMO at 89.4 pts and GFS at 86.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 65.5 pts over GFS's 61.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.8 pts over GFS at 42.4.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
MY THOUGHTS Although the theme of the next two weeks weather largely remains one of High pressure there is a difference of opinion on how it affects conditions across the UK through the second week in partcicular. The current warmth will be interrupted over the weekend with more changeable conditions for a time before High pressure is shown to rebuild early next week returning warmth and dry weather especially over the South. Then as we move towards the end of next week divergences in the models occur ranging from a cool down from the North or NW as High pressure transfers to the Atlantic whereas ECM shows a more benign air pattern across the UK towards the end of it's run with a lot of dry weather but with quite a bit of cloud and the odd shower. GFS is more extreme with it's theme of colder conditions in Week 2 with sufficient depth to the cold air from the North to allow wintry showers and frosty nights. So a lot of fluidity in the predictions from later next week but I don't think High pressure is ever likely to be far away from the UK at any time but the one certainty from this morning's output is that the positioning of High pressure is very instrumental in what type of High pressure based weather we enjoy, be it warm and sunny or cooler and more cloudy. Time will tell over subsequent runs as hopefully models firm up on these longer term details in what looks a fairly benign spell of weather.
NOTICE
There will be no report from me tomorrow here or on the forums but the next report will be bright and early on Sunday morning..
Issued at 08:00 Friday April 10th 2015
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset