Summer 1997 was wetter than average, here at least, but was also warmer than average, especially August, which was warmer than August 2003 here. Spring 1997 was drier than normal. So it isn't always clear-cut, and it's possible to get a wet, warm summer, even if they're comparatively rare. 

1) We are halfway through Spring so there is no guarantee it will be dry

2) Spring tends to be a relatively dry season compared to summer on average

3) Dry Springs do not necessarily lead to Wet Summers any more than Dry Autumns lead to Wet Winters and so forth

Otherwise spot on

Rain due 25th April.. On Met Office 10 day weather for Radstock... As on BBC Site..

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Jamstec Summer update + Next 8-10 Days;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Turning unsettled for last week of April?

All these supposed temperature and rainfall links between seasons are very weak at best.

This is in large part down to the fact that a dry spring, for example, can be produced as a result of a variety of large-scale setups, so even if one or two of those tended to be followed by poorer summers (which I think there's a fair chance of, perhaps in large part via the way SSTs respond), we wouldn't see it in the rainfall data.

Same goes for temperatures.

So all you worried folk can relax and make the most of whatever fine weather comes your way, guilt free - unless your skiving of course .

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY APRIL 16TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will continue to build over Northern Britain with a strengthening Easterly flow over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST A period of generally weak Jet flow activity remains forecast with the flow steered well North of the UK due to High pressure near the North of the UK itself. Later in the run the trend for the flow to strengthen a bit and move South across the UK looks feasible as pressure falls.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure across or near to the North of the UK over the next week or so with fine and dry weather with sunny spells and although the positioning of this could mean somewhat cooler temperatures at times with something of a North or NE drift. Later on this run indicates a fall of pressure from the North or NW with gradually more unsettled conditions developing for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar to the operational in theme with a week of fine anticyclonic weather to come giving way to quite deeply unsettled conditions through Week 2 with strong winds and rain at times for all in temperatures none to warm at times.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters are still unclear where we will be synoptically two weeks from now but the majority swing the pendulum in favour of Low pressure becoming more influential across the UK with rain at times and strong winds with only a small percentage suggesting meaningful High pressure across the UK by then.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure across the UK towards the middle of next week but showing signs of receding away to the NW later in the week. However, for now fine and dry weather under reasonable temperatures by day seem likely for much if not all of the next working week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure in total domination over the 120 hour period with any troughs weak and dismissive in light winds from a Northerly source for much of the time, though a stronger Easterly in the South this weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure too across the UK next week with fine and settled weather for all. It too drifts High pressure off to the NW late in the run with pressure falling across the UK and cold air to the North indicating stronger cyclogenesis by the end of 10 days across the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows High pressure giving way later next week with Low pressure just to the West of the UK delivering a change to unsettled and breezy weather with rain at times by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today completes the theme shown by others that cold and unsettled weather caused by receding High pressure and cold air to the North engaging with falling pressure could give rise to an unseasonal cold Northerly with wintry showers and frost at night to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night is much more cyclonic than recently with strong support that Low pressure will be back in control across the UK with rain at times under a West or NW flow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning have shifted markedly towards a much more unsettled spell developing from later next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.1 pts over UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 86.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.5 pts over GFS's 61.1 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.7 pts over GFS at 43.9.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Changes are afoot in the weather this morning but not in the short term. All models support at least a week more of High pressure dominated conditions revolving around High pressure centred over Northern Britain. With the High in that position the weather could be warmer at times but after the cool East wind anticipated for the South now until Sunday it shouldn't feel too bad in the sunny spells that should prevail aplenty. What has changed today is the increased support for more unsettled conditions to develop from the North or NW later as our High recedes and allows the cold air bottled up to the North of the UK to move South and engage with the warmer air of latitudes to the South and there looks a strong chance this morning that will spin up a fairly potent depression somewhere within our vicinity late next week or weekend with rain and wind becoming more of talking features than they have for some time. While support for this theory is stronger today we are still a week or so away and that's plenty of time for our High pressure to be more resilient and stubborn to the above theme. So let's enjoy the week or so to come of dry and fine weather with some warm sunshine as it does look this morning that it may become rather colder and more windy and unsettled to end the month.

Next update from 08:00 Saturday April 18th 2015

So better make the most of any fine weather than before the change kicks in.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

April And May Look-Ahead With JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Also includes CFS and BCC too...

Thanks for the Video Gavin.  On the cool side for the beginning of May.  Lets hope the weather picks up a gear leading into summary months after the first couple of weeks.

The settled spell continues..hints of something a little more unsettled with possible polar incursions developing a week from now leading us into a potentially convective last week of the month. 

April 1974 - Very dry. HP dominated, many cool E/ NE winds...Summer 1974 - cool cloudy wet, maximum temperature recorded in UK was 27.4c

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY APRIL 18TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will lie across Northern Britain with a strong and cold Easterly flow across the extreme South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK at first before becoming much more unsettled with rain and showers at times later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The main Northern arm of the Jet Stream remains well North of the UK over the coming week before weakening and being replaced by a stronger Southern arm, the West to East axis of which will be moving North over the UK in week 2 strengthening as it does so.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure in control of the UK weather for the next week or so before declining towards next weekend as pressure falls from the West leading the UK into a more unsettled and eventually mobile Atlantic airstream with Low pressure to the North pushing troughs East across all areas at times delivering rain and showers and average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also shows a slow transition to more unsettled weather after the next week with more emphasis on colder and stronger North winds for a time with showers or rain with the unsettled and often rather chilly weather for all areas under predominantly NW winds continuing then until the end of the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show a predominance of Low pressure in control of the weather over the UK in two weeks with just a 10% group indicating High pressure near or over the UK. The rest show winds largely from between West and North with varying degrees of unsettled weatehr and from some members rather cold Northerly winds.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure gradually dissolving away to leave a slack pressure gradient across the UK later next week. It will stay largely dry through the period with some sunshine and the fresh and chilly wind across the South of the UK is shown to gradually die away.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show High pressure in control over the UK all the way out to 120hrs positioned in a far from ideal place though up to the North and NW. A resultant cold and chilly feed from the North Sea will continue to mask otherwise warm and sunny weather with chilly breezes from the North or NE with more cloud cover at times especially across the South and East.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure too across the UK next week with fine and settled weather for all. It then shows a steady transition to cloudy and windier weather with falling pressure and rain at times under Westerly winds towards the start of the second week, this affecting all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too feeds Low pressure slowly in from the West next weekend with rain spreaading slowly East across the UK with temperatures close to average levels for late April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today continues to predict a change in the weather in a week's time as it too develops Low pressure around or near the UK with cyclonic winds delivering rain or showers at times in sometimes strong and blustery winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night maintains the cyclonic feel with a likelihood of Low pressure to the North of the UK with a cyclonic Westerly flow likely in 10 days with rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning remain focused towards a much more unsettled spell developing from later next week with Low pressure much more influential for all.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 89.0 pts over UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 86.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 65.4 pts over GFS's 59.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.1 pts over GFS at 43.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The models remain focused on fine weather across the UK for another week with High pressure close to the North, strong early in the week but declining later on allowing the chilly NE or East feed across the South to eventually die out and make things feel rather warmer than currently here. Cold air will be bottled well North of the UK early in the week but as High pressure declines and builds over Greenland some of this cold air will be pushed South into the Atlantic ot even towards the North of the UK. As this then engages with the more seasonal air across the UK and Europe developing cyclogenesis will occur with the parent Low from this predicted to lie somewhere either just to the West, over or just to the North of the UK. This will bring much windier and changeable conditions across the UK, probably over next weekend and then lasting through week 2 as the pattern sets into a more traditional High to the South and Low to the North pattern with rain or showers at times in blustery Westerly winds. Positioning of individual Low pressure features could alter of course over model outputs in the coming days which could bear influence of extent and depth of the change expected but with a couple of days now of models highlighting this change it has a fairly good chance of verifying. So in a nutshell if you can get out of the cold wind across the South and the cloudy and showery blip for some Eastern parts tomorrow let's enjoy what remains of the fine and dry weather in the coming week because it maybe that next week this time things will look far more disturbed across the UK.

Next update from 08:00 Sunday April 19th 2015

April 1984 was also very dry. But unlike 1974, it was followed by a predominantly dry and very warm summer.

Yes 25th April seems to be the day of change, Not too warm either.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY APRIL 19TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will lie across Northern Britain with a weak trough moving West later today across Central Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK at first before becoming much more unsettled with rain and showers at times later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The main Northern arm of the Jet Stream remains well North of the UK over the coming week before the two arms North and South of Britain move closer togenther across the UK later under a much more mobile undulating pattern through week 2.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure in control of the UK weather for the next 4-5 days as it's centre remains over the North of the UK bringing much fine and dry weather with the chill wind in the South decreasing. Pressure falls late in the week and a much more changeable, windy and often cool pattern develops thereafter with rain at times and temperatures on the cool side of average. things are shown to dry up a little from the SW late in the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also shows a slow transition to more unsettled weather after the working week and though day to day differences are prominent synoptically between this run and the operational the message is the same. So after another 5 days or so of dry weather much more unsettled and changeable weather with strong and cool winds and rain at times look the order of the Week 2 period for all areas.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters continue to indicate a strong chance of an Atlantic mobile flow in two weeks time with High pressure well away to the SW with varying degrees of Low pressure affecting the UK under predominently Westerly winds. Only 10% of the group show High pressure beung maintained over the UK at the two week point.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure gradually dissolving away to leave a much more unsettled look to the weather across Britain by next weekend with Low pressure gradually taking control from the West

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show High pressure in control over the UK all the way out to 120hrs weakening somewhat later but not quick enough for much in the way of rainfall to affect any parts of the UK within the 120hr time span.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure too across the UK this week with fine and settled weather for all. It then shows a steady transition to cloudy and windier weather with falling pressure and rain at times under Westerly winds towards the start of the second week, this affecting all areas but not to a great degree across the South as High pressure clings on to the South..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows Low pressure deepening as it moves NE from a position to the SW of the British Isles to a point North of Scotland with troughs swinging East and SW or West winds strengthening towards next weekend with some rain for all by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows a similar pattern to the West as cloud, wind and rain replace the dry weather of the coming working week. As low pressure develops it eventually is shown to lie East of the Uk to bring all areas cold and windy and showery conditions with the threat of wintry showers over Northern hills in particular..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows cyclonic conditions with Low pressure up to the north or NE of Britain with fresh and cold winds bringing rain and showers to all at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning remain focused towards a much more unsettled spell developing from later next week with Low pressure much more influential for all.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.2. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 89.5 pts over UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 86.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 64.0 pts over GFS's 59.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 45.5 pts over GFS at 42.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There seems firm agreement now from all models that a change is on the way to all areas of the UK by next weekend as High pressure across northern Britain for much of this week is planned to decline and become replace by Low pressure and stronger winds. We still have another 4-5 days after today of reasonable and sometimes very pleasant weather to come if you an keep out of a chill wind across the South and variable often large amounts of cloud near the East coast at times. Some warm sunshine will affect all parts at times through the week. Then it looks like Friday or Saturday could be a transition day towards cloudier weather with rain filtering in from the West, developing further as Low pressure develops over or to the North of the UK with stronger winds as a result. It then looks like this change could last some time with the threat that cold North or NW winds could deliver some unseasonably cold air down over Britain ala ECM and bring wintry showers to some parts. Whatever the outcome things will feel very different to what we have become accustomed to of late with sunshine amounts much lower and rainfall amounts rescuing an almost bone dry April for some parts. The period of change is just coming into the reliable timeframe so expect models to start firming up on the details that the unsettled spell will bring the UK over the coming days and continue to enjoy the fine and dry working week to come before any change takes place.

Next update from 08:00 Monday April 20th 2015

Thank You Martin for the output.  One week dry then the rain comes Friday onwards.. That will keep the frost away for our area.. The rain will be welcome.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY APRIL 20TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will lie across Northern Britain with slack winds across all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK at first before becoming much more unsettled with rain and showers at times later especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow remains weak and locataed well to the North of the UK. The flow rejuvenates later this week with the main arm developing to the South and then over the UK through next week gradually turning NW to SE across Britain later in Week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure in control of the UK weather for the next few days before it declines by Friday as Low pressure moves up from the SW deepening to the North of the UK by the start of next week. The resultant windier and more changeable conditions will be well established by the end of the weekend leaving next week changeable for all with further rain or showers but some drier conditions too at times especially in the South. Late in the run a cold and unsettled Northerly or NW flow maintains the unpleasant conditions for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also shows unsettled and cooler weather arriving in time for the weekend with rain and showers at times. The largely unsettled spell then looks like being maintained for the rest of the period though with some drier spells in the South for a time mid run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show a 50% split this morning between options of High pressure over the UK in 14 days time and Low pressure delivering unsettled and at times wet conditions. Due to this choice of options being so evenly spread no confidence can be given to any clustering this morning.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure declining away by Friday with a daisy chain of Low pressure stretching from the SW approaches to the North of Scotland next weekend delivering showery rain for many. The final frame shows the trough clearing to the East with slowly improving conditions to SW Britain by the end of the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show High pressure in control over the UK through much of this week before a complex trough system moves slowly NE across the UK from Friday with showery rain at times by then.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure in control across Britain until Friday when pressure falls from both the SW and North arriving as a complex Low pressure system close to the North and later East of Britain through the latter stages of next weekend and next week. Pressure is also shown to ridge strongly North across the Atlantic at that time. The net result will be cool and sometimes windy weather under a NW airflow with rain or showers, wintry on Northern hills next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a shift to cool and showery weather through the weekend and beginning of next week as winds settle to blow from between NW and North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows falling pressure too from the SW and NW by the weekend with a weekend of showery rain at times for many. A drier interlude is then likely across Southern Britain early next week as High pressure builds towards Northern France but maintained unsettled weather in Westerly winds across the North are then shown to extend to all areas later next week with rain and showers in blustery West winds for all in avearge temperatures by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night looks likely to bring the UK largely cyclonic conditions later next week with Low pressure to the North affecting all areas in Westerly winds with rain at times and near to average temperatures for the time of year.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning remain focused towards a much more unsettled spell developing from later next week with Low pressure much more influential for all.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 96.9 pts and GFS at 96.2. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 89.0 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 86.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.9 pts over GFS's 57.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.4 pts over GFS at 41.9.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The trend towards a more unsettled and possibly cool period is still very much alive this morning probably commencing from later on Thursday. The change will be a complex and unstructured affair with some places likely to see very little rain while others see rather more as much of the rain falls in showers which by nature are always hit and miss. Whichever way I look at it this morning there seems to be good agreement for Low pressure to lie up to the North of the UK early next week with cool and showery West or NW winds across Britain bringing further rain and showers. However, some Southern areas may remain largely fine for a time early next week as pressure to the South rises temporarily before we all settle down to a spell of Westerly winds with rain and showers with as ususal the heaviest rain and strongest breezes likely over the North and West. There are a few cold Northerly incursions in the mix too for later next week though this hasn't got universal support least of all from ECM who maintain milder Westerly winds across Britain. So enjoy the fine weather of the next few days as the downhill slide in conditions commences from late Thursday. Having said all that the weather looks far from a washout and looks nothing other than a traditional mid Spring unsettled spell when some welcome rainfall is coupled with drier and brighter days with some sunshine in strong Westerly winds at times.

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday April 21st 2015

Thank you Martin. Precious rain due... Fed up with using hose already.  Roll on Friday onwards.... 

Unsettled if not very unsettled looking runs tonight with showers or longer spells of rain and a risk of snow over high ground in the north with something even wintry to low levels quite possible to.

It looks like the initial arrival of the Atlantic may be fairly low-key as far as frontal rain is concerned for most, with a warm front advancing northeast fairly quickly while the more active cold front is held to the northwest of most parts of the UK until it has become heavily occluded (the boundary mixes out and precipitation becomes less intense). That feature looks to make the crossing during Sunday, having perhaps plagued the far northwest during Friday and Saturday, it will probably have fragmented into little more than a band of showers by that time.

That leads me nicely onto the fact that for the weekend, perhaps into the following week as well, showers are likely to be the main player as far as significant amounts of precipitation are concerned. With cold uppers comes the potential for some decent instability giving rise to the possibility of hail, lightning and thunder, probably the best chances we've seen so far this season 

After that comes the chance of some more reliably heavy and persistent rain, as new areas of low pressure arrive from the Atlantic and engage with the pool of cold air hanging out around the UK. As the cold air is mixed out, the wettest spell of weather in nearly two months looks achievable across southern parts.

Such wet conditions won't be such a distant memory for areas further north, but after all, that's what you'd expect  

With the blocking high to the northwest not looking like going anywhere fast - either waning then recycling or simply persisting without pause - there's little signal for an end to this new regime in the current model output, even two weeks from now.

GFS has been unusually consistent from run to run even in far-FI of late, which implies that the pattern is unlikely to be undone by the usual fluctuations in weather that occur; a bigger event will be needed to drive any major shift, for example a strong MJO event, a large typhoon or perhaps a spike in solar activity.

In light of this, it's not unreasonable to conclude that we're better off being in such a position to kick off May than to kick off June. If it wasn't for the fact that it can take anything from a week to more than two months to break out of a stable broad-scale pattern, there probably would be some notable correlations between the weather in one month and the weather in next.

As it is, I believe we're always doomed to flail hopefully when attempting to envision the path the weather will take more than half a month or so ahead. At least that'll keep us on our toes 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 21ST 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will continue to be slow moving over the North of the UK with light winds for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and rather cold with bright spells and showers, heavy and wintry on hills. Local night frosts still likely.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Northern arm of the jet will weaken over the coming days as it moves slowly South towards the British Isles. The Southern arm will become the more dominant feature located over Spain before moving North to join the Northern arm over the UK later in the period where it remains in situ with it's orientation shifting to more NW to SE axis.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure declining over the coming days with Low pressure edging up from the SW and deepening to the North of Scotland over the weekend and start to next week with rain and showers for all. A changeable pattern is then shown for the remainder of the period though with High pressure never far away from the South or West of Britain some Southern and Western areas may not see too much rain after the innitial period. Winds look like settling NW or even North at times so it will probably feel rather cool at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run though similar for much of the run shows small differences but still has the underlying message that with High pressure close to the South and SW at times the most changeable conditions remain towards northern Britain with longer drier spells in the South. This run too shows rather cool conditions under NW winds at times.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters continue to show a variety of options in condiions by the end of the two week period ranging from a greater bias supporting the operational and control runs of High pressure most likely to the West and SW with West or NW winds and occasional rain the order of the days. The lesser options show Low pressure to the East and well out into the NW Atlantic with a contrasting North flow or milder SW flow so take your pick.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure declining and being replaced by cyclonic conditions at the weekend with outbreaks of rain or heavy showers for all in cooler conditions overall as Low pressure settles to the North and NE of Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mimic the operational run of UKMO today with a decline in conditions from the SW on Friday setting up the weekend with a trough across the UK continung the risk of rain or heavy showers at times in progressively cooler conditions.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning is one of the coldest and most showery of the outputs this morning with Low pressure developing and becoming anchored to the NE of the UK with a cold and showery North to NW airflow lasting much of next week delivering heavy and wintry showers at times across the UK with some night frost later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also brings cold NW and Northerly winds down across the UK in association with Low pressure anchoring across NW Europe and the North Sea at the weekend and start to next week with rain and showers in cool conditions and no doubt some wintry showers at times over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too challenges GEM for the coldest mantle this morning as it's run produces Low pressure sluggishly centred on the North Sea and Scandinavia next week feeding cold air down over the UK from the Arctic with plenty of convective and heavy showers all days across the UK with snow on the hills and patchy night frosts where skies clear.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night supports the operational well so I expect little change from this chart to the one produced later this morning with a cold and showery NW or North flow looking likely over the UK in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning remain focused towards a much more unsettled spell developing from later this week though there are a few scenarios drifting towards higher pressure possibly developing closer in to the South and West at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.9 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 89.1 pts over UKMO at 88.4 pts and GFS at 86.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.7 pts over GFS's 57.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.4 pts over GFS at 41.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The last days of fine warm conditions are underway this morning and it looks increasingly like we better make the most of them because from Friday onward it may be some while before temperatures return to the levels currently being experienced across the UK. All models have now underlined the change from Friday as our old friend High pressure declines away and is replaced by deepening Low pressure moving up from the SW towards a point North of Scotland by the end of the weekend. While the weekend itself may still feel pleasant enough in any sunshine between the showers it's as winds swing NW or even North early next week that cold air floods South and sets up what looks like being quite a long period when days will be characterized by bright periods and highly convective conditions with heavy showers delivering a cocktail of rain, hail sleet, snow and thunder coupled with frosts at night as skies stay clear. I would even go as far as to say that anywhere could see a surprise snowfall next week in the heaviest showers and before anyone says that it's too late in the season for that I can say with experience it has happened this late before and could happen again under some of the models synoptics this morning. However, despite the talk of this on the flip side of the coin strong late April sunshine between the showers could feel very pleasant still but frosts at night in this setup look inevitable for some and will prove very unwelcome if some of this morning's charts verify. So a real shock to the system looks likely across the UK this weekend and next week as summer clothes can be put back in the drawer for a time with warm coats and umbrellas becoming much more an accessory when out and about soon.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday April 22nd 2015

Good to see the trend of long duration of the unsettled weather had been cut shorter and shorter on each run so after next week noticeable cold northerly blast followed by another LP before the BH weekend then HP build in time for a latter half of BH weekend then a good week ahead which is good for my week off.  It too far ahead but at least it in the right direction by having some short lived rainfall that farmers need it before it settled down again.   Not a good day for London Marathon with some rain around and car boot likely to be cancelled.  I am not bother about it as I focus for the BH Monday one.