Do your calculations use multiple model runs? Just wondering as I get 11.2*C as an estimate to 14th May using the 12z GFS op run while an average of the last 7 runs is nearer 11.7*C.

It does make me wonder if I'm estimating the CET correctly.

Whatever the case, it's the signal for an exceptionally warm second half of May that will be critical from the looks of things. So much time for things to go wrong 

As it is, I've just realised I was looking at old JMA output... the latest forecast shifts the pattern again late in the month which actually brings cooler than average 850hPa temperatures back to our shores.

In light of which I've adjusted by CET prediction down slightly, though it does remain well above the LTA at 12.8*C.

I promise I'll leave it alone now 

The first time I've ever forgotten 

11.5C please

I'm late as well, 11.7 for me please.

I'll lose a shed load of points if a very warm May comes off.

But a warm May would be very nice.

Just for interest - the warmest May on record was 1833 with a phenomenal CET of 15.1C

That in turn made May the second warmest month of the year. June and also August were cooler.

Amazing.

Cue a much cooler ECM 12z op run... the Euro High is lost in favour of a Euro Low with that ridge locating in the mid-Atlantic!

Honestly, if that turns out to be the true path with the models barking up the wrong tree these past 4-5 days, all faith will be lost in them and I will bring an early closure to the experiment, the conclusion being that the models are 9 times out of 10 hopeless beyond about 5 or 6 days range 

For what it's worth, my personal reckoning is that ECM has a point with the more amplified pattern threatening to hold back the ridge more to the west, but see more of a halfway house between that model and GFS as the safest bet, the warm conditions delayed but not prevented, temperatures doing okay but not getting that much above average during the first 10-14 days - in light of which I'd call a final CET of around 12.2*C.

I should have thought of this earlier - putting my own reckoning up against the model based predictions 

Though this could prove a tad confusing for GW what with everything else going on - apologies if that turns out to be the case!

Saturday morning edit: interesting to see what I post when I've had a few 

It's a surprisingly focused post considering. Anyway, ECM's looking more like I imagined this morning but GFS has headed the other way with the Atlantic jet more active, high pressure tending to be relegated to the S and SE of the UK, conditions often on the warm side overall but with a fair bit of rain about at times.

I never believe anything the ECM shows beyond day 3. 

Good morning watchers.   First run of figures for the month .. The average between the figures posted Is 7.5c.

Met Office Hadley        7.3c.     Anomaly     - 2.1c.   Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                    6.07c.   Anomaly    -5.34c.

N-W                           7.92c.   Anomaly    -3.39c.

Mount Sorrel               5.7c.    Anomaly    -5.6c.

Clevedon Weather       9.3c.   Anomaly     -4.2c.

My  Mean                    8.6c.   Anomaly     -1.5c.

My annual       6.9c   Anomaly   1.2c.

Oh, and I hope your head is OK this morning!   

Met Office Hadley      7.6c.    Anomaly     -1.8c.   Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                  7.46c.  Anomaly     -3.95c.

N-W                         8.05c.   Anomaly     -3.26c.

Mount Sorrel             7.7c.    Anomaly      -3.6c.

Clevedon  Weather    9.4c.    Anomaly      -4.0c

My Mean                  8.9c.    Anomaly      -1.9c.  

Here are the predictions for May. A very narrow range for the most part with the majority of predictions between 11.7C and 12.7C

Thanks for the chart and your work...

It was fine Caz, I can handle a few beers 

...and thanks, good luck to you as well! 

The way ahead is so unclear right now. The ECM 00z op looked great for boosting the CET. The GFS 06z op looked like holding it way down and the 12z op would keep it fairly low as well. Yet the UKMO 12z looks more inclined to follow a path similar to that ECM 00z.

As far as I can see, a final CET anywhere between 10.5*C and 13.5*C lies within the 'quite possible' range, while the 'probable' range has had to go AWOL due to a lack of certainty 

As for handling a few beers, I don't know where I go wrong.  I had four glasses of wine at a relatives birthday dinner on Friday and felt fine but then I almost missed Saturday.  Maybe I don't drink enough! 

Met Office Hadley     9.1c.   Anomaly    -0.4c.  Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                 9.09c.  Anomaly    -2.32c.

N-W                        9.67c.    Anomaly   -1.64c.

Mount Sorrel            10.7c.   Anomaly   -0.4c.

Clevedon Weather    11.1c.   Anomaly   -2.3c.

My  Mean                10.13c.  Anomaly    0.2c.      

Met Office Hadley        9.9c.      Anomaly      0.3c. Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                    9.96c.    Anomaly     -1.45c.

N-W                          10.49c.    Anomaly     -0.82c.

Mount Sorrel               9.85c.    Anomaly     -1.45c.

Clevedon Weather      11.06c.   Anomaly     -1.8c.

My Mean                    10.9c.    Anomaly       0.8c.

My Annual          7.4c. Anomaly   1.7c.    

Met Office  Hadley      10.4c.     Anomaly       0.6c.   Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                   10.4c.     Anomaly      -1.37c

Netweather                10.9c.     Anomaly      -0.41c.

Clevedon Weather     11.5c.     Anomaly      -2.3c.

My      Mean               11.1c.    Anomaly        1.0c.  

Met office Hadley      No Update so far.  

Metcheck                  9.97c.        Anomaly       -1.43c.

Netweather             10.8c.          Anomaly       -0.51c.

Clevedon Weather    11.5c.         Anomaly        -2.5c.

My     Mean              10.9c.        Anomaly         0.8c.