Here's Terry Scholey's mid May to mid June forecast;

gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Chilly start but signs of heat (and thunderstorms?) in June?

I've got "Gavin's Thoughts coming up tomorrow, which I'll post in this thread so keep check on what's happening.

Thanks as ever for your support.

Onwards!

Edit 1: Here's the week ahead forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the traditional Written Thoughts: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

Edit 2: Here's the CFS Six Month look-Ahead (JFF) http://www.gavsweathervids.com/catchup.html

Sounds about right, though with any luck some more widespread warmer conditions might manage to sneak their way in for Wed-Fri next week.

With a lot of positive SST anomalies in the Western Med. and to the west of Iberia, some of several degrees Celsius in the former region, and many models and forecasters talking about clashes of hot and cool air taking place in June, it's starting to look like a lively month could be on the cards.

Amazing to think that a few days ago these temperatures were occurring across large parts of Spain:

...with a new May record of 42.9*C further south in the Canary Islands.

Zooming in, I'm astounded to see a sizable area of 36*C or so in northwestern Minorca; I know the place well and it's uncommon to get much above 30*C even in the height of summer.

What really rings alarm bells is some signs of low pressure tending to hang out to the west of Iberia next month. The exact nature varies between models but many show the potential for that sort of setup turning up for at least a time. If it does, we could see an exceptional plume of hot air advancing north through NW Europe. In which case, the question for us will be to what extent the UK gets involved.

With a trip to Minorca planned for late June, I'm wondering what I might face if SSTs around the Balearic Isles continue to be several degrees above the LTA... could be approaching tropical standards!

Thank you Gavin... Hope it becomes warmer...

Cheers Gav

Thunderstorms are welcome

^^^^^^

Thanks all.

SC, that heat across Spain earlier in the week was incredible! 

Here's the week ahead forecast video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the written Thoughts;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

A cool and unsettled week coming up with showers and spells of rain. A little better later, perhaps?

Bank Holiday update on the Events page this evening.

Hi all,

Here's the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead for May;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/catchup.html

This one takes us from June to November, but Just For Fun!

Thanks Gavin