Its not been that bad Ian.  The mildish winter prevented a 2013 fog fest.  Today has been beautiful, and the forecast doesn't look too shabby with high pressure dominating in the S.

Damn warm here in Evesham today, and looking rather warm in the Highlands tomorrow afternoon.  Should be more pleasant for hillwalking up there (where I will be) from Sunday though.

Not much has changed since yesterday as far as the ECM and GFS weekend predictions are concerned.

We still have ECM steering the cooler air further east for Monday, keeping the southwest under the warmer conditions of the previous two days, so perhaps still making it up to the high teens for parts of that region, and not far off for many central parts. 

GFS hasn't budged either, that cool air affecting nearly all of us, producing unseasonably low temperatures with a lot of cloud to contend with, the only exceptions being in the far south and southwest.

Then, both models have the Azores High nosing back in for Tuesday through Thursday, max temps soon back into the high teens for much of England and Wales.

It's after this that a few changes are seen, with GFS back in line with ECM with regard to sending a low to our NE rather than NW on Friday, after which a new theme has emerged today. This features a new area of low pressure, newly picked up on this morning for day 7 (Thursday), which tracks further south in the Atlantic than the one ahead of it, and looks likely to 'mature' while to the NW of the UK rather than NE.

I think of a mature low pressure system as one that has disengaged with the jet stream, losing it's forward momentum and tending to either stall out as a gradually decaying feature or get drawn into newly developing systems upstream.

The first case can be seen on the GFS 12z op run (below left), the second on the ECM 12z op run (right):

The GFS version places the trough too close for comfort, but being to our NW, it does allow the far south to hang on to warmer conditions for a day or so longer.

The ECM version is less progressive and less vigorous with the LP system - no surprises there. The Azores high then displaces into Europe, which I've not seen in the output for some time!

As it happens, GFS tries something similar a few days later, with tasty results:

That would be a fitting start to the meteorological summer 

Good morning folks. Got a busy weekend ahead of me workwise so this will be my last report until Tuesday morning. Lets hope for a more sustained and better positioned High pressure predicted to be up and coming for the UK by then.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY MAY 22ND 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A moist Westerly flow will cover Britain today clearing from the North tonight and tomorrow as a cold front moves South reaching Southern England tomorrow morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter especially towards the SW but still rather cool with a little rain at times towards the North and NE.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream is currently undulating close to Northern Scotland. Over the coming days though erratic the flow sinks South across the UK and eventually settles across or to the South of the UK under a trough before becoming less defined again late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows the same theme of High pressure out to the SW of the UK throwing a ridge across the UK again this morning. However later next week Low pressure is shown to gain control from the North with showers or rain at times for all for 4-5 days before signs of High pressure building from the South again at the end of the run promises a return to some fine and warm weather again in two weeks time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very similar through the first week with High pressure from the SW maintaining generally fair conditions. Then Low pressure is also shown here to gain some control from the North though less defined than that shown by the operational with an eventual rise of pressure to the NE and Low to the SE bringing in a different air pattern late in the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today still show some High pressure influence mostly close to the South in two weeks time though a 20% cluster go for High pressure to lie to the NW. Some weak troughing is also indicted to possible affect the North and East later.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a ridge of High pressure affecting much of the UK from the SW over Bank Holiday Monday and Tuesday with set fair conditions for most in a West or NW flow. By midweek indications are that Low pressure will be migrating down from the North or NW with more unsettled weather soon.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts are quite uninspiring this morning with a lot of weak but complex troughing threatening the UK from the NW at times through the period with the SW looking at threat from one such system on Tuesday and most areas for a time on Sunday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning is a little different from the rest of the output in it's latter stages as it makes less of the Low pressure from the North later next week with very little influence reaching the South while the North does indeed become more unsettled for a while with rain at times with the end of the run reflecting a NW/SE split with some fine and warm conditions across the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the ridge from the SW holding some influence across the UK through the Holiday weekend and start to next week before it too shows more domination from Low pressure closing in from the NW late next week with some rain at times gradually extending South and East across the UK for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today looks a lot like UKMO in it's latter stages with the early week ridge gradually collapsing in the wake of Low pressure moving SE down the North Sea later next week. Set fair conditions early in the week would be replaced by cool and showery weather for a time before winds settle Westerly late in the period still with the risk of showers as troughing is still indicated then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night still shows High pressure to the SW with a ridge close to Southern Britain while the North could be a little more changeable in a Westerly flow in occasional rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS No definitive trend changes are evident within the models this morning with the caveat that there is a little more agreement that a more unsettled interlude at least looks likely for a time late next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.7 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.4 over UKMO's 83.2pts with GFS at 82.0. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 52.7 over 50.7. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 32.6pts to 31.7pts

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The weather remains in quite a static and benign pattern at the moment with a large High pressure area down to the SW of the UK throwing at least some influence across the UK at times. However, weak troughs coming down from the NW across it's axis are bringing a little rain at times as well as a lot of cloud with today and Sunday a point in hand. Both Saturday and Monday looks like seeing the best of the Holiday weekends weather with some warm sunshine for many though it will be fresher on Monday. Changes thereafter are rather slow but there is a clear pattern that suggests a period of rather more Low pressure controlled weather is likely to move down from the NW later next week with a period of rain and showers possible for all with conditions thereafter being very much up in the air at the moment, ranging from fine and settled conditions returning as High pressure rebuilds close to the South or alternatively High pressure building to the North or NE and the best weather setting up in the North. Neither of the options have very high confidence and it is likely that a good few runs yet will be needed to see if either of these or any other option longer term is any more likely. In the broad scale of things though things could be very much worse and a lot of dry weather should be shared by all in the two weeks  and though there is no definitive sign of a heatwave occurring anytime soon the average or slightly above average temperatures in any sutained sunshine should give some satisfaction for many.

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday May 26th 2015

Thanks Martin. That'll do me for now 

Quite changeable with some dry weather in between from time to time.

More unsettled weather arriving by Thursday however.

Average British weather you could say.

Thank you Martin...  Glad Bank Holiday Monday is dry for our area.   May your FETE be profitable...

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Encouraging Sign's For June From JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Some warmer and drier weather on the way?

Thanks. Glad it is not looking to bad as I'm in a gazebo. So glad to see winds aren't going to be strong.

looking dry from time to time but still with coolish temperatures? Rain forecast for Sunday and showers Monday in the south...15-18 at best?

Might as well not bother with Summer and just skip straight onto Autumn. Okay, at 234 hours, it is a long way off in forecasting terms but I don't think it will instil that much confidence in terms of hoping for extended warm and sunny weather.



At least I wouldn't have to worry about chilly north east winds coming in from the North Sea.

Locally Ian, that is a very decent set up for you but not so much for 90% of the population.

That to me looks a bit like the "weather bomb" we had in the second week of last December.

I wouldn't worry too much about that tbh, unless the GFS gets any support from the other models. If there is one thing GFS seems to be an expert at, it is going from the sublime to the ridiculous.

Summer lasts for three months, and with our variable climate, three weeks is a very long time in weather forecasting, let alone three months. It's impossible to say either way at the moment, unless anyone happens to have a crystal ball!

I'm leaning toward ECM's less progressive Atlantic which allows for a ridge from the southwest for next Saturday:

We then see height rises to the NE but things get complicated with slack lows across parts of Europe:

We always see the models having trouble when high pressure starts thinking about setting up shop over Scandinavia. June and July last year saw an unusually large number of these problems to be solved, as the 'Sceuro High' was a dominant theme.

In theory this setup should be capable of bringing largely warm but sometimes unstable conditions to our shores again this year, but only if the jet stream doesn't try to undercut the Scandi High as it is trying to do in the above chart.

Either way, it appears that those unusually intense heat plumes could start cropping up in the southern half of Europe again soon, starting as early as next Friday for the far-western Med. and a large part of Spain.

These 'super plumes' seem to be a consequence of anomalous heating having occured both in the western Med. and over NW Africa. I wonder, did NW Africa see unusually low rainfall in the recent past...?

Whatever the cause, we have seen a few occurences now of the 'small breakaway ridge' sequence occuring from the Azores High to Europe. Initially, the Azores High extends east toward Europe, and a northerly flow prevents N. African heat from being released across Europe for a time, which with Africa is like putting a lid over a frying pan - the heat just keeps on building. Spain is also capable of acting in this way to a lesser extent. The combined effect is then to cause a lowering of surface pressure (hot air is less dense so weighs less per unit volume, meaning less pressure on the surface), which drives a break in the Azores High, the separated high then heading east. Now we have an area of south to north motion, which takes the plume of heat across at least a part of NW and/or Central Europe.

Most 'Spanish Plumes' evolve in this sort of way, but these sluggish types, driven almost entirely by what can be called 'heat lows', rarely make it to the UK.

Instead, we tend to rely on a different kind, driven by what's usually a well-defined area of low pressure to the west of Iberia. These tend to have a more distinct boundary between the plume and cooler Atlantic air, which is why so many of our plumes break down quite quickly with only short-lived or relatively weak levels of instability, as opposed to a gradual deterioration in the form of severe thunderstorms embedded in hot, unstable air.

With all this in mind, the latest signals are indicating to me a pattern evolving that has a low risk of hot weather, but an almost equal risk of very hot weather. In other words, it looks like a lot of work for a plume of hot air to reach us, but if it does, it could be particularly intense and long-lived.

Aside from that, a tendency toward warmer than average weather will be welcomed by many, but it could be a stuttering process with cooler days still cropping up from time to time within the next fortnight, and it looks like at least some of these will accompanied by spells of rain  - bearable, I suppose.

Looks like a North South split on the ECM. Doesn't look to bad down here maybe even above average temp wise. Up north though could be quite wet.

If the bbc weather site is to be believed there is no sun forecast whatsoever up to next weekend just constant cloud and average to below average temperatures. Has there been a downgrade? I refer to the London area 

definitely got the temps wrong.

We where forecasted a high of 20C today when in fact it's rose to 22C... so far ;)