Well reading the current posts it looks like the following weekend of June 6-7 at the very earliest we may see an increase in temperatures and general improvement overall but as Gavin alluded, the jet stream is stronger than it should be for this time of year, so I wouldnt be surprised that this could prove to be a major fly in the ointment and consequently this changeable cool pattern may continue for a good time longer despite the Azores High trying its best to settle things down......

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 27TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move East across the UK later today and tonight before a cool and showery Westerly flow follows.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A spell of changeable weather in the first week followed by warmer and more settled weather in Week 2.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continue to blow West to East close to the UK over the coming days and again near the start of next week. Later in the run the flow weakens and becomes more ill defined as pressure builds for a time from the South.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a spell of breezy and for a time late in the weekend and start to next week a distinctly Autumnal feeling couple of days as a strong jet flow across the UK powers up a deep depression across the UK with rain, gales and squally cool conditions for many lasting until midweel when a slow improvement moves up from the SW, last to reach the North late in the week. Thereafter, things become much more benign as no pressure system takes overall control with warmer and drier conditions with sunshine at times for all and the risk of showers in the South and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a very similar output for the two weeks with the same inclement Low pressure affecting all of the UK in the first days of next week. Then this run shows a more full hearted attempt at bringing High pressure and subsequent warm conditions to much of the UK as High pressure builds across and to the NE later with warm continental air and just the risk of a thundery shower across the South late in the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today continue to project High pressure well in control of the UK weather in two weeks time with a large High pressure centred close by with fine and warm conditions as result. Just 5% of output shows the risk of a deep Atlantic Low with warm Southerly winds and some thundery rain in the far West.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows cool and unsettled weather at the start of next week with cool and strong West or NW winds and showers, heavy at times in association with Low pressure close to NE Britain by Tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show the UK governed by a Westerly Atlantic airflow carrying occasional troughs and depressions East just to the North of the UK with troughs carrying rain followed by blustery showers to all areas especially later.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM paints a similar picture in relation to the deep Low crossing England early next week, exiting only slowly away later in the period with better conditions under higher pressure trying desperately hard to move up from the South but never really reaching the far NW in the period and with the threat of some thundery rain in the SE as the cooler plar maritime air across Britain mixes with warm continental air on Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM has next weeks Low further North than most other output and follows on with a much more meaningful build of pressure across the UK by later next week. There would be a spell of rain then showers in blustery winds early next week before fine, sunny and warm conditions develop from midweek on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM unfortunately backs the majority of the run bringing the deep Lo across the UK early in the week. Improvements are painfully slow and somewhat delayed than on previous output taking until the 10th day of the run to see pressure build sufficiently enough to bring more guaranteed dry and fine weather with warm sunshine as pressure finally becomes High across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night does maintain strong support for good weather across the UK by Day 10 under a strong ridge with fine and warm conditions for nearly all away from the far NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather after a week or so remains but is shown by most output to be somewhat delayed in arriving this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.7 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.9 over UKMO's 82.6 pts with GFS at 82.2. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 52.3 over 45.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.7 pts to 26.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main message read from the models this morning is the uncertainty longer term of how well pressure recovers next week following the inclement conditions from the nasty little Low programmed to attack all of the UK early next week. There is currently a strong Jet stream for this time of year in the vicinity of the UK and over the next 4-5 days this winds up a powerful and unseasonal depression early next week, this following an already cool and unsettled period in the days leading up to this. After the spells of rain, strong winds and heavy showers from this we have to wait and see how the legacy of this influences pressure rises from the South and SW previously shown for the middle and latter days of next week. Most output do still show this rise of pressure still sufficiently strong enough to ensure a settled spell of weather for many with warm temperatures developing late next week but this is a delay in what was being shown only yesterday and synopses to the NW from some output doesn't always look too preventative of Low pressure attacking any rise of pressure from the NW at least in the NW longer term with High pressure resultantly nudged more towards the East, NE or SE. I think the main message is until the early weeks storm's transit is known and confirmed cross model support on the day to day events following it will be unclear and differing one to another but I think there is still enough cross model support for an improvement from the middle of next week with the emphasis gradually shifting away from cool and unsettled to drier and warmer conditions for most but whether this will result in a 'high summer' type event looks a little more fractious from the operational outputs at least this morning.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday May 28th 2015

Given that the Azores High so often blocks our chances of cold weather in winter, isn't it ironic that it may not be able to muster the strength to block the unsettled weather just when you want it to poke it's nose into our affairs

Yes you understand my thoughts totally.

"JULY DRY"  May yet happen...

Meanwhile down here in London it is already warm and sunny with the temperature looking to nudge 20C this afternoon. Hardly changeable and cool in your back yard, surely?

Similar here, Rob. It's been a really decent May despite what I keep being told. It's already warm and sunny and we have had far more dry, settled weather this month than unsettled. Temps have been around the seasonal average as well. 

Oddly, I agree that it's not been a bad May - despite general comments I've seen.

We were at Centre Parcs in the Lakes over the BH weekend and on the Saturday were swimming in the outdoor bit of the pool in the sunshine, followed by sitting out well into the late evening for a BBQ.

There's been some really heavy rain through the month, and temps have never got high, but overall a decent month in terms of useable weather.

 June for your location . Once it gradually improves next week the first half of June will be fine with warm sunny spells. Mid June onwards expect more warmth but with some heavy thundery type rain with thunderstorms. As said it is a lovely day today , enjoy it.

You were very lucky Saint, last Saturday was the only day in May I recorded temperatures above normal! It was also by far the sunniest day this month as well.

Every other day has been below average apart from one other that was average, most days have been cloudy as well.

You will have noticed that Sunday was a very different day.

andy

Sunday was different, yes, a few degrees cooler - but dry and a few sunny spells; same as Monday. But we still swam outside

PS - never realised before just how nice Penrith is. Been to the lakes countless times, and as often as not came off at j40, but always assumed Penrith wouldn't be nearly as nice as it is.

PPS - drove to Askham one evening, and the route from the A6 past Lowther Castle is just.... WOW!! Can heartily recommend the food at the Punchbowl Inn at Askham, too - excellent grub at sensible prices

So, after a soggy old Sunday-Tuesday, how's the much-advertised rise in pressure shaping up?

The answer is, it depends who you turn to!

The GFS 12z op run has decided that the early-week low will in fact be a classic sliding system (see below-left) that drops into Europe and sets up an easterly, drawing across a large plume of warm air and so setting up a decent run of days hitting the low to mid 20's.

ECM's 12z op run (below-right) continues to have the low exiting to the northeast with a ridge of high pressure arriving here in it's wake. This proves to be a less stable outcome for the northwest, as an area of low pressure is able to track between Iceland and the UK, close enough to threaten cloudier skies at the very least.

Both models show signs of a trough setting up near the Azores by next weekend, which can help to sustain a ridge across us for a good run of days - but also carries the risk of allowing the high pressure to retrogress to Greenland and bring about a northerly. GFS threatens that late in it's 12z op run, but the ridge starts toppling back east by day 16, the northerly narrowly missing our shores.

These potential sliding lows often take until 3-4 days range to sort out, so by the end of the working week, we should have a clearer picture which route we're going to be using as a guide. If not, feel free to hurl expletives at the models, provided you do so privately 

So nothing has really cleared things up yet.

I'll have a bit of that! 

ECM is still slow to improve the weather greatly in Northern areas, indeed it's +240 before real high pressure arrives in Scotland, until then it could still be rather cloudy with near average temperatures.

The midlands south wards now look assured of some fine weather from mid week onwards.

It's all really just a case of timing but hopefully this dreadful May will soon be at an end, this morning it's windy, raining and the temperature is just 6c. Pathetic!

Andy

Nice words about Penrith Saint, it's not a bad place really, the Council has done a great job on redeveloping the centre recently and it all looks a lot better than 10 or 15 years ago, Penrith doesn't have the charm of Keswick or Ambleside but doesn't have the crowds, the rain or high prices either!

Had many a good meal in the Punchbowl, pleased you liked it.

Off topic all this but hey the thread isn't busy!

Andy

ECM and GFS are decent and warm by mid next week for the South 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 28TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A Westerly flow across the UK will persist with a trough of Low pressure crossing Central and Southern parts of the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by a brisk NW flow later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable, windy and cool at first then drier, warmer and sunnier for all later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows an unusually strong Jet flow crossing East over the Atlantic and the UK and this is shown to persist for another 5-7 day if anything strengthening somewhat early next week. The trend thereafter is for the flow to ease North across Scotland and weaken too eventually breaking up and becoming ill defined as pressure rises.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows an improving period of weather developing across the UK from the moddle of next week. In the interim period the weater will be far from pleasant and quite inclement at times as Low pressure just to the North sweeps active troughs East across all areas at times with wind rain and showers affecting all areas at times. Then High pressure eases up from the South with fine and dry conditions developing along with more seasonably warm temperatureslate next week and in Week 2 with High pressure likely to lie over or close to the North with the best conditions here and the risk of a few showers at times in the extreme South or SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run looks broadly similar to the operational this morning  with the theme between the two showing rather less potency across the South of the UK early next week of the Low pressure shown further North than recently. The Control run then shows High pressure in control over or near the UK thereafter with fine and warm conditions developing for all.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today are quite confusing at first sight with a lot of slack pressure gradients shown across the Atlantic and Europe in general. All this made up from different options of position of High pressure in relation to the UK but still with the fundamental message that fine and dry conditions are likely to prevail over the UK in two weeks time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning continues to show Low pressure further South than GFS taking a centre across the UK early next week and maintaining cool and unsettled weather across all areas up to the middle of next week before hints of a rise of pressure from the SW are shown on the day 6 frame shown below.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a plethora of troughs affecting the UK between now and the middle of next week driven by Low pressure areas moving across the UK or just to the North periodically from the West in cool Atlantic winds.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows Low pressure sinking into the UK early next week from the NW with showers or longer spells of rain affecting all areas at times over the weekend and start to next week. Thereafter pressure slowly recovers, on this run from the SE allowing a humid Southerly flow to develop in association with Low pressure over the Atlantic and drawing the risk of heavy, thundery rain to feed North across the UK before things finally looking like settling down more widely by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the Low early next week digging deep into the UK as it transfers East by midweek bringing cool weather with wind, rain and showers across the UK ahead of a marked improvement in both temperatures and better weather in genral as High pressure builds from the South later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM also shows the Low across the UK early in the week with rain and showers foremost in the weather in cool and windy conditions. Then a tentative build of pressure develops midweek affecting the South first and then all areas later as High pressure from the Azores eventually is shown to ridge all the way across Scotland to Scandinvia later with a NE flow across the South with dry, fine weather for all but temperatures likely to be somewhat lower than elsewhere in the SE on this run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night still looks favourable for dry and reasonably fine conditions to look likely to be the favoured option for the UK in 10 days as High pressure from the Azores ridging across the UK is maintained.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather a week from now remains with pressure expected to rise from the South.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.6 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.8 over UKMO's 82.4 pts with GFS at 82.2. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 52.2 over 45.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.1 pts to 25.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main focus of the models this morning is the vast change from the synoptics across the UK early next week to those expected just 1 week later as the message remains that after a period of inclement and unseasonably windy and unsettled weather early next week the pendulum swings to more settled and warm weather with sunny spells under synoptics that generally mean that once established they can tend to last for some considerable time. So after a generally somewhat cool May with some areas having a wetter month than usual too June looks no better to start with as cool Atlantic winds, rain and showers occur everywhere early in the month. However, after a few days High pressure building from the South shown by all output brings a change to fine and settled weather with some warm sunshine for all. The most popular consensus is for High pressure to generally end positioned to the North of the UK  with an Easterly flow towards the South. If this sets up as some output shows warm air over the continent should feed West across the UK but as this crosses a cool North Sea we will have to watch for the threat of sea haar and fret to affect Eastern coasts making for cool dull conditions here while in addition thundery showers could ease up from the South of Europe later as lower pressure looks likely there but all in all it looks like an improvement is still very much on the cards between the models this morning with just the fine detail on the final positioning of High pressure being likely to be instrumental in determining day to day degrees of warmth and sunshine in any one place across the UK.

Next update from 08:00 Friday May 29th 2015

Again with the disagreement... ECM (above-left) tracks the Mon-Tue LP further south than GFS and this leads to a slower exit to the NE when comparing the two. GFS has abandoned it's idea of a slider into Europe and is now as keen as ever on taking the LP away to the NE, in fact quickly enough to allow a strong Euro High to bring toasty conditions to the south of the UK as early as Thursday after a fine, warm Wednesday. 

Some promising charts then follow from both models, ECM (below-left) now keeping the Atlantic lows a little further away to the NW than it did yesterday, while GFS has them out of sight:

Notice how both models have a new ridge of high pressure arriving from the southwest and 'rolling over the top' of a heat low and associated plume - and what a plume it is - over Iberia. GFS has this new ridge travelling to our NE but sticking around close enough to maintain fine and warm conditions to around day 14, after which another ridge from the southwest resets the clock and we're high and dry for even longer.

As far as I can see, ECM's headed in the same sort of direction, though with a little more of that fresh Atlantic air getting into the mix days 9-10.

What would really make things interesting would be low pressure getting to the west of Iberia - but that's also an unstable option and could in fact bring some health issues as well due to the intensity of that heat plume. So in some ways it's more of a threat. I feel for those in Spain who look to be enduring another spell of exceptionally high temperatures, this one perhaps prolonged in nature.

Just thinking about that plume a bit more - this plot shows the anomaly in 850hPa temps compared to the LTA, at a time when the plume is centered more over Portugal than Spain. What we see is some pretty massive anomalies - that +12*C anomaly over NW Spain is equivalent to London seeing 17*C 850's in early June, which doesn't happen very often. 

Interestingly, following the evolution of this plume, it seems to be a consequence of anomalously high SSTs over the area if Ocean to the W and SW of Iberia than events over North Africa. The western Med. is probably playing a part too, but in recent times I think I've overstated it's importance given how small an area that is.

Based on this origin of the plume, I expect it's a humid affair with a lot of moisture available for any thundery downpours. If you're taking a holiday down there next week, you have been warned...