My advice would be to listen to the likes of James and Gibby, and not take runs in isolation. Also worth bearing in mind we are still in spring. 

I've just done a post on the ensemble mean and spreads in my Chart Interpretation thread.

In short, it appears the GFS 06z op run is off one one based on both the ECM and GEFS mean and spread charts, these favouring a weak Iberia/France low that doesn't get up to much, hanging out to the south of the UK as a ridge extends from the Atlantic to Scandinavia via the UK.

The ECM 00z has the closest operational run to this guidance that I've seen today, and even then it's wandering away days 9-10.

In light of all this, the UKMO 00z continues to puzzle me. It seems to be lacking a trough extension toward the Azores which on the other models helps the Euro Ridge to develop and push NE. It would actually be a more stable way forward if the main Atlantic trough wasn't so progressive days 5-6.

Speaking of that trough, there's little run-to-run or inter-model consistency regarding where it's located in 5-6 days time. The vast majority of solutions do build the Euro Ridge one way or another, which is encouraging for some warmth, but the extent to which it gains control over the UK and how rapidly is up in the air to be honest, with 3rd June potentially relegated from a fine, warm day to a 'slowly improving' sort of day with mediocre temps. Unnerving? A little, but at the moment Thursday is looking comfortable so not too alarmed for the time being 

But aren't the charts and outlooks being discussed within the time frame of Summer?

haha! Indeed, it's the constant bemoaning and horror some express over every poor chart whilst inside spring, yet very little opposite expression when the good ones appear. 

Its normal in winter, but usually summer brings about a bit more perspective. 

Summer begins on Monday the 1st of June;

However the Met/o says yes to summer by Thursday.

For the majority of us anyway.

True. I think people are just getting fed up of this constant chill that has been in the air since the end of April (not that April was overly warm either) 

Roll on some thundery heat.

Im sure it has been for some areas, but for many, May has been a very decent month indeed. 

Agreed as it was mostly usable despite cooler temps and so far no cancellations on car boot sales including 2 BH ones.  Well done weather! Not going this Sunday though so don't care if stay open or cancelled, likely the latter one due to rain.   I hope this weekend dartboard LP is the last time to appear until October.   

April must have been a rather different month where you are to my area. Here it was almost continuously warm, that is aside from a cool few days just before Easter and then the start of the much cooler spell in the last few days of the month. Other than that it was almost worthy of being described as summery for much of the time.

Don't get me wrong, we had some nice, dry anticyclonic weather too, but even on warmer days, temps were often offset by brisk winds and dew points hovering around zero (sometimes below) during the most fair afternoons. Would not describe that as summery, but more mid-springlike.  We even had some snow flurries after the fickle warmth dissipated late in the month. 

 Fingers crossed 

Oh yes! 

Still a long way out though. We've already seen recently how predictions for a couple of weeks out can be horrendously wrong, even at a week out this is still well into FI given the lack of uniformity in model evolution. 

Truly stunning ECM tonight we'd be looking at 32c + by next weekend IF it verified . Can it become reality that's the big question.

This is one incredible thermal gradient at 850Hpa ! 

This plume is starting to look exceptional for early June. GFS (above left) is as usual more aggressive with pushing Atlantic air in from the west, but the overall theme is very similar. What's really made the difference this evening is the orientation of the ridge across Europe changing toward more of a South-North alignment over East-West.

We then see a new ridge arriving from the southwest (see day 10 GFS (left) and ECM (right) charts below), building to the north of the low over Iberia, which has been the theme with a number of recent ECM runs. That model manages to keep the hot air in play across the south, while GFS has it slowly but surely building back from Europe through days 9-14.

...and I have to hand it to GFS for the most epic chart of the day:

That is just insane.

Tonight's ECM and GFS output both look capable of setting us on the path to the hottest June on record. The question now is, have we hit the peak as far as the modelling is concerned? Surely the outlook can't get any hotter and the usual downgrades will kick in by tomorrow?!

If not, we'll have to start considering emergency plans for the vulnerable.

Can't see that coming off - What sort of temperatures would those charts deliver. I'm old enough to remember 1976 and I can't see any of that lot breaking those records.

Certainly some high temps could be on the cards , be nice to see the hint of some