Well the models appear to have had a shocker this month. On top of the usual shortfalls, I think that the refusal of the atmosphere to readily respond to an El Nino SST (and thermocline) setup in the Pacific has further undone their projections for May 2015.

In fact it makes it hard to take any projections for the following month or two seriously, let alone further ahead than that.

In light of this, I dread to think how large the accumulated CET error may be by the end of this year 

To be fair, even my lower 'gut instinct' figure looks likely to be a degree too high this month - I just never imagined that the Atlantic trough/Euro High combination would end up being so short-lived. This reversion to a mid-Atlantic high is more like I recall seeing during years with a developing La Nina 

May well have a 11.5c. figure for the end of month. With the expected warmth the last few days.

I went for a CET of 11C for May and I didn't realise that at the time I wasn't paying enough attention - courtesy of a little too much wine :-)

Having seen how this month has turned out and how the rest of this month is looking - I won't be far off the mark :-O

Luck cares not for inebriation Gavin 

Maybe we should have drunken computer models, at least that would be entertaining 

Just thinking about this month compared to last, there's a real contrast IMBY, with the CET being held up by relatively mild nights (a touch above average) but the average maximum about a degree below the LTA. In fact the value (15.6*C) is currently lower than what I had for April (15.8*C)!

By the end of the weekend, May's likely to have restored order for the time being at least. Then it will come down to how close to our east the jet dives south again. Today's trend has not been encouraging in that regard 

Those stellar (Stella?) 18z GFS runs in Jan aren't called 'Pub Runs' for nothing!

Met Office Hadley    10.8c.      Anomaly   0.1c.   provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                10.66c.    Anomaly -0.74c.

Netweather             11.37c.    Anomaly  0.08c.

Mount Sorrel           11.0c.     Anomaly   0.3c.

Clevedon Weather   12.0c.     Anomaly    1.0c.

My  Mean                11.7c.    Anomaly    1.6c.

My  Annual               7.5c.     Anomaly    1.8c.

Met Office Hadley    10.7c.    Anomaly    0.0c.

Metcheck                10.64c.  Anomaly  -0.76c

Netweather             11.24c.  Anomaly  -0.07c.

Clevedon Weather    11.9c.   Anomaly   1.5c.

Mount Sorrel            10.9c.   Anomaly  -0.4c.

My   Mean               11.5c.   Anomaly    1.4c. 

Met Office Hadley      10.6c.      Anomaly     0.1c.   Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                  10.59c.    Anomaly    -0.82c.

Netweather               11.16c.   Anomaly     -0.15c.

Clevedon Weather      12.0c.    Anomaly     -1.4c.

Mount    Sorrel           10.8c.   Anomaly      -0.5c.

My    Mean                 11.8c.   Anomaly       1.4c.

Met Office Hadley        10.7c.      Anomaly   -0.1c.  Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                    10.74c.    Anomaly   -0.67c.

Netweather                 11.22c.    Anomaly   -0.09c.

Clevedon Weather        12.0c.     Anomaly   -1.4c.

Mount   Sorrel              11.0c.     Anomaly   -0.3c.

My    Mean                   11.6c.    Anomaly     1.3c.

Currently still looking likely that the CET for May will finish very close to 11C

:-)

Met Office Hadley      10.8c.     Anomaly     0.0c.    Provisional  to  22nd.

Metcheck                  10.87c.   Anomaly    -0.54c.

Netweather               11.35c.   Anomaly     0.05c.

Clevedon Weather      12.1c.    Anomaly    -0.3c.

Mount   Sorrel            11.2c     Anomaly    -0.3c.

My     Mean                11.7c.    Anomaly     1.6c.

Met Office Hadley         10.9c.      Anomaly     0.1c.   Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                     10.24c.    Anomaly    -0.47c.

Netweather                  11.42c.    Anomaly     0.13c.

Clevedon Weather         12.2c.     Anomaly    -1.2c.

Mount   Sorrel               11.3c.     Anomaly     0.0c.

My       Mean                 11.9c.    Anomaly      1.8c

My     Annual      7.6c  Anomaly   1.9c.             

Not looking anything like my 12.34c guess.  That's me off the top table!  Never mind, I've just had a lovely week sunbathing in Corfu. 

Late today. Was at Kimersdon Fete.

Met Office Hadley        11.0c.       Anomaly   0.1c.   provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                    10.97c.     Anomaly  -0.43c.

Netweather                 11.49c.     Anomaly   0.2c.

Clevedon Weather       12.3c        Anomaly   1.1

Mount    Sorrel            11.4c.       Anomaly   0.1c

My   Mean                   12.0c.       Anomaly   1.9c.

The CET table is going to see a huge shake up this month. We will certainly have a new leader, the question is who? Will it be NeilM or Hungry Tiger? At the moment I favour the latter.

The way each opportunity to get a few warm days in has been pushed back and watered down... just typical really.

It's a dire time for the long range models, with their experimental nature really being caught in the spotlight right now.

I know that they are painting a warm picture for June this year, but it seems that this can only really be taken as a good chance of fine, warm weather turning up for at least a time in the first half of the month, with the second half anyone's guess.

Even the shorter range models ended up quite a way wide of the mark beyond about a week's range.

It seems April's good result was a fluke - as the saying goes, a broken clock is right twice a day.

For me it's disappointing as I was hoping to see science make some headway against 'guesstimates' as I have sometimes seen them called.

Now of course I can't go around crying 'pot luck' at all of you who are doing well this year, for all I know you have some well tested methods to hand, in which case I congratulate you on outwitting the computer models!

For my part, I can't claim to have ever had much of a clue what will unfold beyond about 10 days range, two weeks as a stretch, but then I've always relied on either gut instinct (2009-2010) or a combination of model output and knowledge of some common errors such as GFS being too progressive (2011-2014). 

There is of course a positive side to the severe limitations of long range forecasting in the UK - the weather keeps us on our toes, with plenty of room for discussion as the models struggle to resolve how the favoured intersection zone of four major airmasses will play out for our tiny slice of the Northern Hemisphere 

GW, I'm sure it's sheer luck and anyone who watches the weather will know that forecasts beyond five days or so can't be trusted.  LRF's always make me laugh, especially when they claim success on the rare event they get it right because as you say, even a broken clock is right twice a day. 

My gut instinct has been very near the mark for the first four months of this year, but it's way off this month.  

Can I put in an early entry for the June competition here, as I'll be away for the rest of the month?

If so I'd like 14.7 C  please.

I'm way out as well. But, in my part of sheltered SE Devon it's really not been too bad a month - plenty of sun recently too. I hope I was just a month out because I think the a warm month, esp with the extra push of a EN, can't be far off.

Met Office Hadley     11.0c.      Anomaly       0.0c.   Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                 10.99c.    Anomaly      -0.42c.

Netweather             11.51c.     Anomaly       0.21c.

Clevedon Weather    12.3c.      Anomaly      -1.1c.      

Mount   Sorrel         11.3c.       Anomaly       0.0c.

My     Mean             12.0c.      Anomaly        1.9c.

I'm hoping it goes up at least a bit more.  Wishful thinking again! 

Hold that figure please :-)

UP today!!!!!

Met Office Hadley       11.1c     Anomaly       0.1c.    Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                   10.99c.   Anomaly      -0.41c.

Netweather                11.55c.   Anomaly       0.26c.

Clevedon  Weather     12.4c.     Anomaly       -1.0c.

Mount  Sorrel             11.4c.     Anomaly        0.1c

My    Mean                 12.1c.     Anomaly        2.0c.