Here's the week ahead forecast video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the Written version;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

Mostly dry start then unsettled...

I've got two updates coming up tomorrow @ GWV - Will have some summer analogues that are quite interesting + A big update Re. El Nino. Things are looking quite shocking there...

On Monday I'll have a historic vid looking at autumn/winter 2000/2001.

Keep checking back for all the updates.

Thanks for your support as always and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen!

Thank you Gavin.  Just need good weather for bank Holiday Monday, All day... 

Just read this but since it still stands, that isn't a bad outlook for me.

^^^^

Thanks guys. 

Here's the week ahead forecast video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the Written version;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

Mostly dry start then unsettled...

I've got two updates coming up tomorrow @ GWV - Will have some summer analogues that are quite interesting + A big update Re. El Nino. Things are looking quite shocking there...

On Monday I'll have a historic vid looking at autumn/winter 2000/2001.

Keep checking back for all the updates.

Thanks for your support as always and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen!

A certain element of Groundhog Day about it all, so it seems.

It definitely isn't the most exciting time ever, LOL! 

Thanks Gavin

Here's today's first video update;

Summer 2015 Analogues;

www.gavsweathervids.com/summer-2015-forecast.php

Set's up next weeks Summer forecast nicely. 

I've got a new El Nino update coming up later so watch out for that one. 

Two for the price of one @ GWV today - Here's our second video;

Quite  A Shocking El Nino Update;

www.gavsweathervids.com/enso.html

Some pretty big changes since the last update in April.

Here's today's Bank Holiday historic video;

Autumn 2000 Floods & Winter 2000/2001;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/autumn-2000-floods.php

Hope it brings back some memories.

Enjoy.

Thanks Gavin. I was particularly interested in the El Nino update having heard rumours that it was being upgraded. Will be interesting to see what the effects are around the world if it does turn into a record breaker.

The impact on the UK weather from such an event is, as you say, based on past experience not typically a singularity so difficult to draw any conclusions.

If we look at the 8 strongest El Nino events since 1950 and consider what the CET did on average over a 7 month period covering the month when the rolling 3 month ENSO index peaked and the 3 months either side of this we get the following results.

This shows that more often than not the CET is a little below average over the 7 month period. However, the two events in the 1990's bucked that trend significantly. The position we are at in the solar cycle seems to have little impact.

So as expected difficult to draw any specific conclusions about what the potentially strengthening El Nino we are currently experiencing may have on UK temperatures in the second half of this year.

Very interesting stuff GW.

Interesting. What does the data look like for the individual chunks (ie. During the peak, the earliest three months, the latest 3)? I was wondering if the effect was more pronounced towards the front or back of the spell.

No real difference between any of them on average. In three years the temperature anomaly was more negative (or less positive) in the 3 months post the peak and in 5 years it was greater in the 3 months prior to the peak.

Good Video Gav