May has seen temperature return to a slightly below average position in the CET area. As we move into summer will we start to see a warm up?
Please post your June CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Sunday evening (31st). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 June.
Jun historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
We have not had a really cold June since 1991 (12.1C) although several years have been slightly below average. 8 years since 2000 have seen a CET of 15C or more including last year at 15.1C. Warmest was 2003 with 16.1C.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 14.1C
1981-2010: 14.5C
1995-2014: 14.6C
Here is a chart of the June CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average
Current model output
The current model output suggests a cool start to the month but with temperatures reverting to somewhat above average conditions fairly quickly by the end of the first week.
The Met Office contingency planners forecast suggests temperatures in June will be very close to average when taking an average of multiple data points. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/8/6/A3_plots-temp-JJA.pdf A very slight bias towards above average.
Pattern matching (just for fun)
I repeat here a post I made earlier in May slightly modified to reflect the May CET now being ever lower than previously expected.
Looking ahead to June the pattern matching suggests a fairly good chance of a warmish month.
If we look at years since 1950 with an April CET of around 8.2C-9.5C and a May CET between 10.3C and 11.5C we have the following matches with their June CET figures and July/Aug CET means
Year June CET Jul/Aug CET
1957 15.2C 15.9C
1963 14.9C 14.8C
1972 11.8C 15.4C
1980 13.8C 15.3C
1985 12.7C 15.4C
1993 15.0C 14.9C
1997 14.1C 17.8C
2005 15.5C 16.6C
2010 15.2C 16.2C
71-00 14.1C 16.3C
So maybe a fairly warm June although there are two years in that list with very cold June's. July and August could be disappointing on these figures with only two years above average and many well below average.
There are three years in the above list that were in a similar phase of the ONI index (i.e. moving towards a significant El Nino event).
In 1993 there was a moderate El Nino and we were also in a very similar phase of the solar cycle as we are now - i.e. heading down towards a solar minimum.
Both 1972 and 1997 saw strong El Nino events develop. In 1972 we were also heading towards a solar minimum in a similar position to the current solar cycle whereas in 1997 we were just moving out of a solar minimum.
The temperature profile of the first 5 months of 1972 was very similar to 2015. The period May to November 1972 saw the CET mean average 1.1C below the 1971-2000 mean. So a very cold period indeed. In 1993 we did see a decent June but then had 5 cold months from July to November. In both years milder conditions returned in December. So worth keeping an eye on these analogue years as they do provide a close match to 2015 and suggest we could be in for a period of really quite cool weather albeit we might see something a bit milder for a time in June.
June CET tracker
Here are the current prediction charts for the first part of June. Well below average to start the month but recovering towards average by the 11th. There is a possibility of something very warm by mid month but that is a long way off still.
Edited by moderator
16 July 2015 13:53:48
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Reason: Not specified