The models are even more unhelpful than usual this time around. What if the BBC's call turns out to be right for next weekend and it's a scorcher? UKMO gets close to that but the other models are generally not interested.
The long range signals suggest we should see at least a few more plume opportunities through the rest of the month, but there's no telling how well they will do as far as the UK is concerned.
Overall, the indications are that the UK will tend to be on a knife edge between a hot NW Europe and an unusually cool region to the NW and W. It's a CET prediction nightmare!
In a bid to force the hand of fate to play a heatwave in order to scupper my efforts, I'm going to use the past few model runs - since the plume started getting swept aside - to produce a very average (unless you use the 1971-2000 LTA) prediction of
14.5*C
...though with my gut instinct leaning toward something maybe half a degree higher thanks to getting lucky (or unlucky depending on your point of view) at least once with the plumes.
Edited by user
31 May 2015 20:59:20
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Reason: amendment (21:59)
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