Still staying rather on the cool side which looks to be the trend for June

Yes, it's difficult to forget the earlier potential for heat, but perhaps some of us (myself included!) get wrapped up in the occasional 'dream run' only to see a backtrack to more moderate, average conditions. 

Next weeks settled and average conditions, coupled with the strong June sun, will feel just fine 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Some in the south-east won't agree!

The behaviour of the low at the end of the week is key longer term.

CET will continue to struggle given cold nights.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 8TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will lie across the UK with a weak trough of Low pressure affecting the far North tomorrow and an increasing NE flow across Southern England tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Quite settled for a time with sunny spells and warm conditions by day locally before more showery conditions develop late in the week and next weekend before probably more settled conditions return again.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast looks a little confusing this morning as it oscillates North and South across the UK in a broken fashion over the coming couple of weeks.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today looks quite High pressure based with an interruption in this towards the end of the week and over the weekend as a thundery Low edges up from the South and then slowly away East over Europe with a build of pressure behind leading to another fine and warm spell for many next week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very similar to the operational today with a brief spell of showery weather at the end of the week and the weekend leading into a largely fine weather based second week as a large High develops over the UK.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show quite a promising outlook this morning as High pressure looks like playing a major part in the UK weather two weeks from now with a centre over or to the West of the UK and just a 10% group suggesting anything meaningfully unsettled.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO too shows a thundery Low moving slowly North into Southern Britain at the end of the week and the weekend before signs of it moving away to the East by the start of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts indicate falling pressure later in the week as a thundery Low draws warm and humid air up into Southern Britain towards the end of the week and the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows showery weather from the end of the week lasting rather longer than some of the other output as a second incursion of Low pressure from the North delays the rise of pressure until later next week on this run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pressure rising from the SW after a showery period at the end of the week and start to the weekend as a thundery Low pressure edges away towards the East at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows showery conditions too developing especially across the South later in the week as thundery Low pressure dges up from the South. A brief improvement is then shown across the North for a time early next week as higher pressure develops before more showery Low pressure moves down across the UK late in the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a ridge from the SW towards Southern Britain maintaining a lot of fine and bright weather with any rain restricted to weak fronts close to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has shifted towards Low pressure at the weekend moving slowly away to the East next week in the wake of more High pressure.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS and UKMO with 85.6 over GFS's's 81.4 pts respectively. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.9 over 41.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.8 pts to 22.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Finally the models seem to be firming up on expected conditions from the weekend as the thundery Low moving up into Southern Britain at the end of the week and weekend seems to have reasonable cross model support to move away to the East by early next week as pressure builds strongly again from the SW. So the fine and bright weather looks like being replaced by thundery showers towards the end of the week especially in the South and this may extend to other areas for a time. However, of much more note this morning is the trend shown for High pressure to develop across the UK bringing fine and warm weather to many areas, at least to the Southern two thirds of the UK with any affects of weak troughs of Low pressure just affecting the far North of the UK. There are still a few exceptions to this general rule of thumb who want to keep unsettled conditions a little longer notably and worryingly the ECM operational but on the whole the models look better this morning longer term with less emphasis on coolness shown than of late as many runs indicate less of a Northerly influence. So all in all ECM aside a lot of dry and fine weather over the next few weeks with a sandwich of three or four days commencing late Thursday of more showery and potentially thundery weather before the fine weather returns for many next week.

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 9th 2015

12z ECM delivers a very reasonable early-mid June output, high pressure dominated except in the day 3-5 period.  Notably warmer in the day 3-5 and 8-10 range.

The incursion of low pressure from the south in these kinds of situations is always tricky to pin down for the models. Previously it was not progged to not make much of a northerly incursion, with the influence of cooler air to the north winning out. Now the models are developing this system to the south in a more pronounced fashion, with it tracking north through the whole of the UK, dragging in the warmer and more humid air. More chopping and changing to come, no doubt, so I wouldn't place a huge amount of confidence in model output for the end of the week at this stage.

The Met/ECM and the GFS show the potential for thunder by Friday and into the weekend especially, for the south.

Ah this all sounds good 😊⚡️

Thursday is only 3 days/ or less then 72 hours now... 😉

We've had 4 or 5 lovely summer days in a row now  Looks like lasting a while longer at least. As long as it doesn't rain we'll be happy. 

Hmmn Friday's shaping up to be an interesting day based on today's trends.

The GFS 18z op run has close to ideal positioning and timing for allowing a combination of homegrown and imported convection, but will the trends now take us to a slower and/or further west area of low pressure which proves less effective from that perspective?

We'll see. Obviously a trend west could mean even warmer conditions as a payoff. Though at the same time we don't want the low to linger on too long as this could hold back the ridge from the Azores attempting to extend across during the weekend. The GFS 18z op does this enough to bring a rather cool day to start next week - but with a quick recovery as the ridge builds east thereafter.

Some encouraging longer-term signals for classic 'extended Azores High' type summer weather for at least the southern half of the UK and hopefully areas further north as well. Generally warm, with fair weather cloud, sometimes quite humid depending on how far south the high pressure is circulating the air around from. Fingers crossed that this is not yet another red herring!

Thanks James. Let's hope that keeps trending west. Warmer without the convention sound spot on. Liking the longer term prognosis as well, especially given the misplaced doom and gloom in here at times. Summer continues in many southern areas. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 9TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will lie across the UK with a weak trough of Low pressure affecting the far North today and a NE flow developing over the South tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Quite settled for a time with sunny spells and warm conditions by day locally before more showery conditions develop late in the week and next weekend before probably more settled conditions return again.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm of the flow well North of the UK currently. It weakens and breaks up over the coming week with a new arm developing over Southern Spain and North Africa moving NE. Meanwhile the ill defined nortehrn arm lying further North under a UK trough moves North again later to blow stronger in a NE direction well to the NW of the UK by the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a run of two halves with Week 1 taking us up to the middle of next week showing thundery showers likely almost anywhere eventually with some warm and humid air across the South as shallow Low pressure moves North from Europe later this week. Then from the middle of next week to the end of the run a largely dry, fine and very warm period looks likely over the South at least as High pressure builds across the South of the UK for much of the time with an Atlantic SW feed across the North perhaps delivering occasional rain at times there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is not too different to the operational run today with a shift of emhasis away from thundery showers later next week especially across the South as High pressure builds across from the SW or West restricting any remaining unsettledness to Northernmost parts under a Westerly breeze.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today again show High pressue likely to lie out to the West and SW in two weeks time though with somewhat less vigour than yesterday showing more of a NW flow for many with a few showers possible especially across the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows thundery conditions at he end of the week and beginning to the weekend as thundery Low pressure edges up into the Uk from Europe. It then shows signs of moving away to the East very early next week as a High pressure ridge from the Atlantic slips slowly SE across the UK from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure declining later this week as the UK is invaded from the South by thundery troughs of Low pressure and then remains the breeding ground for plenty of showers over the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows unsettled and showery Low pressure becoming established later this week and over the weekend with the South seeing the worst of these before a North/South divide develops later in the run with High pressure building close to the South with a more changeable westerly flow likely across the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks much like UKMO this morning building High pressure back across the UK from the NW early next week following showery Low pressure late in this week and the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too shows showery thundery Low pressure edging into Southern Brtain at the end of the week lasting through the weekend before High pressure builds down from the NW to start next week and settles across the South delivering some very warm and sunny weather here while the North may turn more cloudy with a little rain in the far NW as fronts brush by to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a strong ridge from the Azores High lying across the Uk with fine and warm weather likely as a result.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has shifted towards Low pressure at the weekend moving slowly away to the East next week in the wake of more High pressure especially across the South.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.9 pts with UKMO at 82.0 pts and GFS at 81.3 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.3 over 41.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.1 pts to 21.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The models seem to be maintaining their general theme of a period of thundery weather later this week and the weekend lasting into the start of next week in the East and South before a pressure build from the West or SW takes control. While the humid, thundery period could be followed by a short cooler period early next week as the thundery Low exits East it looks like it will be warming up especially in the South as the winds move in from a warm West or SW source later. In the North there may be sufficient influence from troughs to the North to bring cloud and a little rain though even here some fair and warm weather is possible. There looks every reason to be optimistic once we get through the upcoming period of thundery weather over the next 5-7 days. It looks likely that the South will eventually see the highest temperatures so far this summer if the High pressure builds across the South as shown and with some high humidity levels it could feel a little muggy at times. The far North may see more cloud and perhaps a little rain under a fresher Westerly but even here in the shelter of the mountains some warm and humid conditions could develop at times. I would say the models are slowly shaping up into a more traditional Summer setup next week with a traditional North/South divide between best in the South and not quite so good in the North with the nationally cool nights than we seem to have experienced for an age finally and hopefully departing our shores for a few months from later next week.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 10th 2015

Thank you Martin. A change  to decent weather at last.. Not good  for the coldies....  

Still on course for a warm/humid and thundery end to the week by Friday especially for the south but spreading northwards by Saturday.

thanx Gibby

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn844.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn8417.gif

Thundery outbreaks look quite possible

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Deteriorating Pattern For Late June?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Video also has a look at Friday's warmth and thunderstorm risk.

Really quite remarkable, I've never seen the -5 isotherm reach the UK at this time of year before.

Seems like this is pretty much the latest it can possibly do so.

This here is 2nd June 1975, the latest widespread snow event ever* 

*That can be definitely verified to be true

 The 850hpa profile is actually similar to the image above:

This has to be the worst late spring and summer I can remember for model volatility. It actually goes to prove that all LRFs are off limits and I now accept they are futile productions.

i have NEVER seen models swing so wildly from run to run.

Hours?

This is Monday's 0Z run, it looks very similar to me.

In fact quite frankly the models have predicted this with remarkable consistency! I can go all the way back to Saturday!

And even here the -5C line is basically in the same place. This was at 216 hours, well into FI and nearly into low res. If anything the complete opposite is true momin.

erm hang on a minute... Gibby did mention the cool weather.

"While the humid, thundery period could be followed by a short cooler period early next week as the thundery Low exits East"