I'm beginning to get a sense of deja-vu here, every time things appear 'nailed on' the picture falls off the wall!

Hopefully this time it really will be just a 'blip'.

First half of June better than the second half

High pressure brings about the best of the weather during the first half of June.
Turning more unsettled for the second half of the month with rain or showers at times.
After a brief spell of milder weather it is likely to be turning cooler again later.

*6/6/15 - 12/6/15*
Higher pressure is expected to be building close to the UK and Ireland this week. This will be bringing dry and warmer weather to all parts, although it may be breezy in the south at times. A risk of thundery showers in the south later.

*13/6/15 - 19/6/15*
A change in conditions as high pressure gives way to lower pressure as the week progresses. This will be bringing some periods of rain, heavy at times in the south, and an easterly wind. Drier in the north.

*20/6/15 - 26/6/15*
Indications are that the weather is likely to continue to be mixed through this week. This brings showers, some of them heavy. It is likely to be cooler too.

*27/6/15 - 3/7/15
Confidence is low in the forecast for the end of June and early July. However, the weather is expected to be remaining mixed with rain or showers at times, although there could be an odd drier day too.

What a load of crap!

If that were to verify, Matty would be cutting himself

As it is, these LRF's are gash and the reliability of modelling at longer range, as indicated by Martin, is pitiful

The general theme of dry weather being interrupted from the south later in the week and leading to a cool northerly remains

Beyond that, who knows

That is one mighty cold GFS run for June. The 0c isotherm lies partly or entirely over the UK for the entire run excluding next Wednesday and Thursday.  Thankfully with so much chopping and changing currently, at the very least I think we will see a moderation of that outcome as time goes on. That or this year's summer beach trips can be replaced with ski trips in the highlands. 

I suppose the nice this is that on the whole it wouldn't take much tweaking for the heat to head our way and we do still have time on our side. Plus for the most part the runs are more settled than not in the reliable time frame. 

In my part of the country at least its not been grey dank and wet.

Preston is in the south, what you jibbering about?  (thank God it's summer) 😀 😀 

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Two Scottish places on the healthy side??? Daily fail living up to its name up here! 

 LLTNP 105m asl 

You may mock but look at the snow 

 LLTNP 105m asl 

 When you say "a load of crap" and the LRF,s are gash , well maybe but some one is only trying to make a genuine informed prediction so as long as it is not as a taken word for word forecast that,s fine. 

Fans of fine summer weather should refrain from viewing the 0z GFS output.

As someone likes to say, it is a "horror show" from day 4 onwards

I hope it is barking up very much the wrong tree.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JUNE 7TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure is developing across the SW half of the UK with the cool NW flow across the North decreasing and veering north tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Quite settled for a time with sunny spells and warm conditions by day locally before more unstable conditions develop late in the week and next weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the same pattern as previous with the flow relocating to the NW of the UK over the coming days before a trough developing across or near the Uk soon after midweek dips it back South again albeit in much weaker and ill defined form by next weekend and beyond.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a ridge of High pressure lying across the UK over the next 3-4 days before it is squeezed back to the West both from the South and North by falling pressure which then develops a Low pressure complex around or eventually over the UK for the rest of the run with cool and at least showery conditions for all areas from later next week on for the remainder of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run differs greatly in the second half of it's run with High pressure ridging back across the UK after an unsettled period and establishing a fine and warm spell for all areas through Week 2.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a strong bias towards the likelihood that High pressure will lie out to the SW of the UK two weeks from now with a ridge towards Britain ensuring a good deal of dry and bright weather. A minority do still show more influence from the Atlantic with some rain at times especially for the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure taking a back seat later next week as showery Low pressure moves up from the South soon after midweek and encompasses much of the UK by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate falling pressure later in the coming week after several days of High pressure across the UK in the first half of the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows an unusually cool and showery period following the High pressure of the first few days of this coming week. Then towards the end of the run a ridge of High pressure topples East over Britain cutting off the flow and bringing warmer weather to all and more settled weather too in the SE while the North and West continue to see occasional rain from Atlantic fronts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows showery and rather cool conditions developing across the UK well before next weekend as Low pressure in a light Northerly flow becomes established across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows showery conditions too developing especially across the South later in the week though on this run at least an attempt to hold a weak High pressure area close to the North is shown which gradually develops a link to the Azores High and restricts showers to the South later and possibly eliminating them altogether by Day 10 as High pressure re-establishes NE across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows slightly better hopes than recent versions as the emphasis appears to be for a greater influence across the UK from the ridge of High pressure from the Azores High towards the South

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to ebb and flow  towards a more unsettled and showery interlude at least to develop across the UK late next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS with 85.5 over GFS's's 81.5 pts with UKMO at 81.3. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.4 over 43.2. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.1 pts to 23.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Things seem no clearer this morning between the output as all models show various outcomes between each other and also differences in what they were showing last evening indicating unusually low confidence should be given credibility to any one slution at this time. The ensembles too give very little indication of longer term prospects as the members all show some influence from High pressure out to the SW but how much is very speculative and disagreed upon. So as a result we are left to the part of the period where things are more certain and that is that the next 3-4 days which will see a lot of fine and dry weather though never overly warm and with some unseasonably cold nights for this stage of the year. A few showers in the East tomorrow could enhance the cool feel and then a more coherent deterioration in conditions look like arriving from the South or SE from Thursday as thundery showers begin to affect the SE before likely spreading to other areas in the days thereafter. From then on no clear signal is given with a lot of output showing cool and showery weather persisting under Low pressure while other output recovers pressure later to return dry weather to many. This theory does currently hold the balance of power but a good few more runs are needed yet through the early days of this week before the final outcome for the second week is likely to become resolved. So while some pleasant weather is likely over the coming few weeks some interruptions from cool showers, heavy at times are likely and while the weather could be described as 'could be a lot worse' I feel it could be a good deal better too at times from some output given the time of year.

Next update from 08:00 Monday June 8th 2015

The ECM is completely different from the GFS it has no northerly at all. And by day 8 high pressure is back in control. I imagine the GFS is doing its usual thing and over doing the change in the weather and just repeating that change over and over again. It has to be said though the ECM has been all over the place recently. I think a half way house is the most likely scenario. I've never seen them so different.

As noted, the ECM is more than decent 

"crap" referred to the assessment should it verify.

My views on LRF's are pretty well known and it probably doesn't matter who creates them, educated or not, the point remains the same.

Yes there's no reason why people shouldn't produce them, but I would suggest that despite advances in computing power and interpretation, it can be a real struggle beyond 5 days as has been discussed at length on my FB page by people far more meteorologically savvy than me.

The current output continues to toy with the idea of pushing a continental low northwards towards SE England as the week progresses but this appears to simply open the door for a reinforced northerly and cool conditions.

High summer remaining on hold

I think we could be looking at good back ended summer with this month possibly being the worst of the three. My new forecasting method of random guesswork helped me come to such a conclusion, I await the verification stats later in the year too see if I'm onto something.

Altogether too well matched with the wet and cool forecast shown here, especially for the south.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

The Met/o run looking very convective.

I've seen a lot worse charts than all of this evening's big three