What exactly is going chaps - Seems like more confusion than ever. :-)

from what I gather it's a warm humid thundery end to the week, yet more unseasonably cool weather to start the following week. From mid week next it should start to warm again with more dry weather, but still a bit grim towards northwest... after all this it's just guess work as it's all very volatile.

Basically we're going to warm up (briefly) on Friday, then cool down quite a lot again into the weekend and early next week.

As long as high pressure remains centered just to the west/south-west of the country we're going to struggle to get sustained warmer than average conditions.

This pattern has been going on since early May... I can't see it lasting much longer, so I think July will probably see a pattern change, the question is whether it's an improvement or a deterioration...

Yes I did indeed mention the cool down on the exit of the depression next week. It's thereafter that my positively did and still remains.

Meanwhile down here in Southern Spain the Med provided some good fireworks at dawn today which never came ashore but provided a light show to remember as it fed across from North Africa. Great cloud displays. I was sorry it got light really.

No it's not you. It's fine after Monday and Tuesday at least in the South and much warmer too in the North as winds switch to the SW.

This trend is even sooner on tonight's UKMO.

Not been unseasonably cold here at all. Very summer-like for a week now. Appreciate its not like that everywhere, although I doubt many places have actually been "cold"

Should also add the outlook is pretty decent for many as well

Yes I agree. Up here the temperatures have not been too impressive, but there have been a good number of dry, mostly sunny days which have felt lovely even at 15/16C shade temperature, thanks to the strong sun. Only the windy days have been disappointing. 

The last two days for example, have been very nice despite the fact we haven't got near 20C.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Define 'cold' in terms of June temperatures. I had a min of 3.3°C last night. Considering that a fair few January nights don't even get that low, I'd definitely call that 'cold'. Max of 15.8°C day, in light winds with some sun it was pleasant enough, but it isn't summer.

I know the high is far from ideally placed for heat but even so it's practically on top of us and at this time of year given such synoptics I would expect around 20°C here and low 20s in more favoured spots. Yet it's considerably cooler. Perhaps I'm expecting too much but we're heading into mid-June now, the sun can hardly be much higher in sky, something just doesn't seem quite right.

Personally speaking, cold is cold no matter what time of the year it is. Just because it's June, 15c doesn't suddenly become cold. 4 or 5c during the day is cold to me. Cool nighttime temps in early June aren't that unusual. 

I understand your perspective, but as to your last line there, I have been debating this very point and I've concluded  its simply a matter of the high evolving over a few days in exactly the wrong place and drawing in some cold air which then collects and creates cloud to accompany the wind.

By Friday it will be too hot and humid for many...

I have an outdoor event over the weekend and from Saturday in Milton Keynes it is certainly not hot or humid with the NW winds racing in again and by Sunday back to the cool temperatures...

True, but I would say that the longish run of cool night temps would be.

This June is starting to remind me of June 1972.

Take a look at the CET of June 1972. !!!

I wonder if June is going to come in the second below average month on the trot?  Certainly quite cool so far even down here with only last Friday anything like what you would call Summer. True some pleasant days to be fair as well like Matty mentioned, but if the CFS is right (in Gavin P's video)  the pattern change to the May / June recurring pattern isn't what most people are looking for.  What a time for Northern blocking to reappear, if that comes off we could have a run of perhaps 3 cool months which being summer months is even more impressive. 

Still, ECM showing some pleasant enough weather in the short term tonight and GFS seems off on one at the end of the run. Interesting to see if any models start to pick anything up on the last week of June though which is when CFS sees things changing, like all LRFs though it might not actually turn out like that. So far the CFS month ahead through Spring has been not bad at all accuracy wise it has to be said - it was way off for February I seem to remember as was the JMA for that matter so could be off here too.

Fair comment. I meant in isolation, but point taken. 

The airmass we have today circulated around the high having tracked across the northern half of the N. Atlantic. This means it traversed an unusually large area of colder than average waters, which has been developing over the past few months:

So you'd expect it to bring unusually low temperatures whenever we import an airmass from the west or northwest, which unfortunately tends to be quite often for the UK. We're in line for another shot this weekend, slowly pushing south, affecting all areas by Monday, slowly mixing out during Tuesday provided that ridge does push east as currently projected by the vast majority of model output.

If we happen to see air from the southwest in the near future (our supposed predominant wind direction...), that looks capable of bringing near normal temperatures, depending on cloud amounts and rain of course. 

There still remains an excess of heat in the Mediterranean that could give any Spanish Plumes a boost, as I said when undertaking similar analysis last month - but the evidence of recent times points towards this anomalous heat leading to a lot of in-situ instability that tends to interfere with the transport of the hot air northward, so it may take a well organised low to the west of Portugal to achieve much this summer.

We'll be seeing a rather lazy looking plume extend across southern parts on Thursday and affecting much of England and Wales on Friday. The initial push could bring a few imported storms for the far south Thursday evening, though they look to be classic 'Channel Crossers' in the sense that they struggle to hold together, leaving us looking for anything that develops along the South Coast as the southerly drift meets the land and drives some extra uplift.

Provided the residual cloud from such storms breaks down enough by the following morning, Friday could see a more unstable environment over the UK, with strong homegrown activity. With light winds, some locally very high rain totals are possible (or hail...). What I'm really keeping an eye on is possible seeds for organisation (areas of spin... vort. maxes) being offered by the shallow low drifting across England and Wales. That could lead to a serious deluge for some parts, depending on the available moisture - which at this stage looks pretty high.

I concur