Here's the week ahead forecast video;

www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the written Thought;

gavsweathervids.com/written.html

A VERY tricky one from as early as Wednesday this week.

I've got the NAO Forecast for Winter 15/16 based on May's Atlantic sea surface temperatures coming up tomorrow, so look out for that.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the mods for making it happen.

Cheers as always. Good sunny spells and a fresh breeze over the next few days . . . I'll take that.

Just to make the point about uncertainty, Nina Ridge last night presented an extended forecast with both NW and SE airflows on the same map; and then said that both would probably happen!

THANKS GAVIN.      Dodgy Days due,  but will turn out alright by the end of the month.   

^^^^^

Thanks all!

Here's the NAO Forecast for Winter 2015/16 based on May's sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Remember this is really just the starting point when we begin the regular winter updates in September.

#enjoy

Hi SC,

As I explained in the video, I couldn't find a year where the North Atlantic was as cold as it is now, going back to the 1980's....

I suspect if we had the charts, 1991 and 1992 would have shown a very cold Atlantic, but those years are discounted from the archive to volcanic contamination.

As for what's going on, personally, I think we're just getting the first signal that the AMO is going to change from warm to cold over the next five to ten years... I'm expecting one final pretty big warm up in the Atlantic in the next few years so I don't think these cold SST's will be sustained long term.

The reason I asked this is I think there could be a correlation ( a very weak one ) with the declining solar output and maybe we'll see an earlier return to a - AMO cycle. The SST profile didn't look like your average +NAO signal, well not from any of the analogues I've seen it doesn't, maybe this will flip with the strong nino event expected down the line.

Hi all,

The Winter 15/16 NAO forecast now has it's own specific page with a written summary if you can't watch/hear the video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2015-16-forecast-uk.php

Thanks Gavin.. Will come back to it in the colder months...

Cheers Gav

So who fancies unusually cold westerlies this coming winter... Scotland getting pasted while England is stuck with cold rain 

I've watched the Atlantic anomaly pattern slowly emerge over the past 12 months or so. The cold area seemed to creep east from Canada, as can be seen when looking at last year's May pattern in the NAO video and comparing it with what we have had this year.

There are some ties with what would be expected from a weakened Gulf Stream but the lack of relevant apocalyptic media articles suggests there isn't much other evidence to support that coming to the surface... it could indeed be more to do with the AMO as Gavin puts across 

What may put an interesting twist on things this coming winter is a possible 'winding down El-Nino' situation combined with reduced solar activity. No guarantees that either of those will be in place though.