No Hadley update.

The figure from all  my usual's works out at 13.64c   Anomaly  -1.75c.    Just for the sake of it...

No Hadley but here are some others.

Metcheck                12.96c.     Anomaly    -1.19c.

Netweather             13.55c.     Anomaly    -0.55c.

Clevedon Weather   14.4c.       Anomaly    -2.7c.

Mount Sorrel           13.4c.       Anomaly    -0.7c.

My Mean                 14.0c.      Anomaly    -3.3c.

Average of above..   13.66c.   Anomaly    -1.68c.

Here are some others..

Metcheck                  12.85c.     Anomaly      -1.29c.

Netweather               13.51c.     Anomaly      -0.6c.

Clevedon Weather      14.4c       Anomaly      -2.7c.

Mount   Sorrel            13.2c.     Anomaly       -0.9c.

My    Mean                 14.1c.     Anomaly       -3.2c.

  Average of above      13.61c..   Anomaly     1.73c. 

Good to see Met Office Hadley with their 12.8c  Anomaly -0.9c  Back online....

Metcheck               12.91.  Anomaly  -1.24c.

Netweather            13.92c. Anomaly  -1.24c.

Clevedon Weather  14.5c.  Anomaly   -2.6c.

My   Mean              14.1c.  Anomaly   -3.2c. 

10.5C (-2.3C) here
One air frost and 8 ground frosts, only one day briefly above 20C

Bloody hell - We still haven't reached 13C.

My calculations are running 0.3C behind Hadley so I have a CET of just 12.5C up to yesterday. Today was a warm day and tomorrow will also be relatively mild. After that the CET is currently looking very close to average for the rest of the month. The warmer weather that looked on the cards a few days ago has disappeared at least for now.

Based on the current model output I can only see the CET getting as high as 13.65C by the end of the month. That would be just about in line with Tractor Boy's prediction (interestingly he made his prediction early on 22 May via PM because he was going away). Everyone else would be way too high for the second month in a row.

So the CET for this June is looking very similar to June 2013 and not far from 2011 and 2008 as well.

The last time we had a May and June which were both about 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean was in 2013 (both months very similar to this year). Before that you have to go back to 1987. 1996 also saw a cold May / June combination although May was very cold and June close to average.

It is interesting to note that when we have had a very cold May and June in recent years both July and August have gone on to be very cold as well. There are three years in which we see this pattern - 1972, 1977 and 1987 (the only three years since 1950 when all three summer months were more than 0.5C below average). In all three years the June CET ended up below 13C. This year we should not be as cold and as noted above will be more closely matched to 2013. In 2013 both July and August were well above average. So lets hope we follow that year rather than the others I mention above.

One concern is that all three of the years I mention above that saw all three summer months more than 0.5C below average were also El Nino years. 1972/3 and 1987/8 were strong El Nino years while 1977/8 saw a weak El Nino. We are currently in a weak El Nino period which may strengthen further in the next few months. At the same point in 2013 the ENSO was very slightly negative.

Also worthy of note is that in 1977 and 1987 solar activity was relatively weak. In 1972 and 2013 solar activity was medium. Currently we are around the medium level but declining.

On a more positive note there are some further examples of a cool or cold May / June combination followed by a warm July and August. In addition to 2013 we also have 1955 and 1991. In 1955 we had a La Nina event whereas in 1991 an El Nino was developing.

The key point to note is that in none of these years did we have an average July and August. So that leads me to think that we are either going to have a rather cool July and August this year or a rather warm July and August. At this point I would lean slightly towards the cooler scenario.

Thanks GW.

Would I be in line for a bonus for this early insightful guess, e.g. a wiping out of my five crap guesses for January to May?

Met Office Hadley    13.0c.    Anomaly   -0.8c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                13.21c.  Anomaly  -0.94c.

Netweather             13.69c.  Anomaly  -0.42c.

Clevedon Weather    14.7c.   Anomaly  -2.4c.

My   Mean                14.3c.  Anomaly  -3.0c.

Can we add another 2C to that by June 30th.

Met Office Hadley     13.2c.       Anomaly      -0.6c.    Provisional  to  17th.

Metcheck                 13.30c.     Anomaly      -0.85c.

Netweather              13.87c.     Anomaly      -0.23c.

Clevedon Weather     14.7c.      Anomaly      -2.4c.

Mount Sorrel             13.3c.      Anomaly      -0.8c.

My   Mean                 14.4c.     Anomaly       -2.9c.

Great to see that anomaly being chased down.  Just need to see some positivity now!

 It needs to rise by a full 2 degrees to be close to my guess. 

I'm off to Mexico for a couple of weeks for some warmth and sunshine so I won't be here to put my July guess in but I'll pm it to you GW.  I haven't a clue where I should be pitching at though.  What was last year's July CET?

17.72C which is about a degree above normal

Met office Hadley    13.2c.     Anomaly     -0.6c.   Provisional  to 18th.

Metcheck               13.92c.    Anomaly     -0.83c.

Netweather            13.91c.    Anomaly     -0.2c.

Clevedon Weather   14.8c.     Anomaly     -2.3c.

Mount   Sorrel         13.4c.     Anomaly     -0.8c.

My     Mean             14.6c.     Anomaly     -2.7c.     

No update form Hadley...    Probably around 13.3c.. Mark.

Metcheck               13.37c.   Anomaly  -0.77c.

Netweather            13.91c.   Anomaly  -0.2c.

Clevedon Weather  14.9c.    Anomaly   -2.2c.

Mount Sorrel          13.4c.    Anomaly  -0.7c.

My Mean                14.7c.    Anomaly  -2.6c.

My temperature stats for 2015 show that while the overall mean temperature has been close to average, there are significant differences between the maximum and minimum temperatures. Maximums have generally been above average which is why it felt fairly pleasant for much of the year by day but the mornings have been quite chilly at times. The figures below are deviations from the 1981-2010 mean.

January, April and June have seen the maximum CET with an anomaly significantly higher (in a positive direction) than the outcome for the minimum CET.

              Max        Min

Jan         +1.2C     -0.1C

Feb         -0.1C      -0.1C

Mar         +0.9C     +0.3C

Apr         +3.1C     +0.2C

May        +0.4C       0.0C

Jun         +0.7C      -1.2C

Overall    +1.0C      -0.2C

Locally, I have very similar conditions to report - the mean maximum has edged a little above the LTA of 19.5*C, but the mean minimum is about a degree below.

I'm finding it a very reasonable month despite the rather intermittent daytime warmth during the first week or so. For the past two weeks it's generally been pleasant by day and comfortable for sleeping by night, just a few exceptions such as the night going into Thursday 18th which was a clammy affair and never got below the mid-teens.

In fact, with next week now looking so pleasant, I can see this going down as a decent June for the far south at least. I know its not been anything like as good for a large number at the other end of the UK... it's crazy the differences we manage across such a small slice of the globe.

The one thing I have noticed is the lack of thunder this month.  We usually do well here but we've had very little this year at all.

11.1C here now, which is -1.7c
A lot of days have had temperatures more like November, and still only one day exceeded 20C
We may have seen the last of the frosts though.
After -0.1C on the 15th more cloud has kept minimums up.

About time they posted again...

With you. Clocked up about 10 storms by this stage last year; this year, just one so far

Taking into account downwards adjustment's I think the CET is actually around 13.1? Touch and go whether we'll go above 14c, IMO.

May come down, literally, to the final day of the month.

Looks like the one month where I was late getting my prediction in will be the one month where I'm pretty close! 

Well looks like I'm going to lose at least 1 full point.