I reckon that for that to happen, virtually the whole month would have to be exceptionally warm. July 2006 gave us not only the hottest July day on record but it also turned out to be the hottest CET month on record, coming in at (I think) 19.7 and narrowly beating the previous hottest month of July 1983 which recorded a CET of 19.5.

August 2003 was a contender to be the hottest ever up until just after the peak of the record-breaking heatwave on the 10th, but IIRC the second half of the month was quite a bit cooler then the first couple of weeks, although still predominantly settled.

Imo, desperately unlikely. We don't just need a prolonged heatwave to achieve that,  but a prolonged and almost consistently much above average spell that fits perfectly within a calendar month. I'm fairly confident we won't break 19c for July overall, let alone a record breaking 20c+.

Further downgrades and corrections East from models so far this morning so any extreme heat looking increasingly unlikely.

GFS similar to last night in terms of temps. UKMO not as good. 

What it looks like is we are going to get a brief spell of hotter temps, mainly in the east, but it will stay fairly warm for many if unsettled. 

What it no longer looks like is we are going to get anything extreme or prolonged hot temps. 

A run of the mill, nothing to get worked up about summer spell? But still very much appreciated. 

Look the same to me and mid 30s still on schedule as uppers of 20-21c will reach most of southern areas and not just Kent on Wed and Sat as they upgraded the heat on sat with temps expected to match of Benelux maxes up which always end up same results on my local maxes here as they always undercooked maxes here by up to 3-4c range.  Was 27c yesterday despite lower uppers which the browning landscape help to contributed higher temps. No correction east as this one is not a few hours heat type.  Be happy to see widespread 15c uppers for other areas.  

Very good output this morning . 35c still possible next week in the East.

Ecm hot again. To have 20c 850s 3 days out of 4 is incredibly rare.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm722.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

Thomas Shafenaker just now saying a very long period of very warm weather coming up.

very warm/hot ensembles from GFS this morning looking good for a long spell of above average temps. In years past people would hve been overjoyed by these. Not sure why so much pessimism this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ECM has mid to high 20s in the SE day 8 and 9 and settled . A very good run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

For my part there seems to be around 4 or 5 days of higher 850s before they drop back to current levels we are experiencing. Also looks very unsettled as Kevin has mentioned above. This isn't going to be a sunny and hot spell of weather for quite a few. 

Still happy to accept it though. 

Fair enough The Manchester ensembles are quite wet but still very warm. The East though looks much dryer.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Astonished to see any talk of a "downgrade" this morning with this ensemble. It really couldn't be much better.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Raw output still gives 34, 30, 32, 33 for Wednesday to Saturday for London. If four days above 30C is a downgrade than let's have more of them. Remember, just five days ago there was no sign of any real heat at all!

With 850s so high over 20c I really think 35c is possible next week. 

.. and an upgrade for me. Yesterday MetO for Wednesday showing 25c, today 29c. Swings and roundabouts.

????

Latest forecast from T Schaghljfv;ekwfnvenvker showing 33c for Wednesday ...................V Hot IMO

Chance of thunder with that humidity

If ECM & GFS have it right, it looks unlikely that this hot spell will continue anywhere beyond next Saturday, withe the whole country eventually being returned to fresher atlantic air.

It sure doesn't look like a July 2013 type hot spell, which had HP positioned firmly over the UK for a couple of weeks and allowed virtually the whole country to benefit from the excellent weather during that time.

Although a "cool down" seem's increasingly probable by Sunday, it looks like much of Europe will be staying very hot... Won't take much to build a ridge back and pump the hot air northwards again...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.gif

As long as that upper ridge is through central Europe, further plume's can be expected, IMO...

Cool is relative as well - some forecasts show London reaching 31C again by the 9th and then mid twenties for the remainder of the period. Looks like low twenties here aster Saturday.

Either way, should still be pleasantly average at the very least with the potential for further plumes later in July.