New thread to take us into the heart of summer- it's all yours folks!

A good week or more of lovely weather down here. A blip coming up before it warms again. Luuuuurvely

ECM is very good for here too 

Excellent output from GFS this morning again. This could end up being one of the best June's here for a long time. 

Here too Matty its been sunny up here every day in June. It was cold and windy however for the first week but the last 4 days have seen temperatures at 20-23 C and more today

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 12TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A thundery trough of Low pressure is moving up into southern Britain today before stalling and weakening over Central areas tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a brief showery period settled and possibly warm weather should return next week, especially in the South and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow much weaker than of late with the flow generally to the NW of the UK. Through the run today the flow remains quite weak and difficult to pin down in terms of positioning and orientation

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today continues to show High pressure largely in control of the UK weather, positioned close to or over the UK in the coming weeks. While not necessarily over hot from it's positioning this morning plenty of fine and dry weather is likely for all with the sunniest and warmest conditions developing across the South and West while the North and East may see more in the way of cloud and slightly lower temperatures at times especially for a time later next week and more generally right at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is largely quite similar to the operational with the SW as best for temperatures and fine weather as High pressure lies close to the SW or west for much of the time. The run also shows the same more changeable weather as the operational shown right at the end of the period for a time.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show fine weather well in control of the weather largely from a ridge lying to the SW or by some members over the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today is slightly less encouraging than yesterday in that it takes the warmer and High pressure based air developing early next week away to the South later as a strengthening WNW flow drags troughs in cooler air with occasional rain down across many parts of the UK soon after midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well with the removal of the complex thundery trough structure on Sunday as High pressure builds across the UK and then troughs queue up out to the NW by the middle of the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM looks much like UKMO this morning in it's first 6 day period with a push of cooler Atlantic driven air spoiling the improvements of early next week with cloud and some rain later in the week. It is just a temporary spoiler though as High pressure rebuilds across the UK by the end of the run with fine and in places warm weather returning next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure early next week with some sunshine and warm temperatures. However, it too later in the week shows winds veering to a cooler Northerly though away from the far North and East a lot of dry and sometimes bright weather may ensue.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM looks more encouraging than some of the rest through the middle section of next week as High pressure remains closer in towards western Britain restricting any influence of cooler Atlantic Westerly or NW'ly winds to the far north and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night remains encouraging as a ridge from the Azores anticyclone remains led across the UK from the SW on Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend of the models today have introduced more of a hiatus in the High pressure based outlook towards the middle and end to next week as West or NW winds bring cooler and cloudier conditions South and East across the UK not previously shown as extensive.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.8 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.9 pts with UKMO at 82.9 pts and GFS at 81.9 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.9 over 42.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.8 pts to 21.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS While I remain optimistic about the overall pattern of the weather across the UK over the coming weeks as usual some caveats have developed in the last 24 hours which may limit the improvements I predicted yesterday at least for a time, The thundery trough of the weekend is still predicted to be out of the way by Monday with some dry and bright conditions developing for several days with warming days but chilly nights again for a time. By midweek winds will blow from the West across the UK and an incursion of a trough up to the NW looks like it could bring a cloudier and damper phase to the North and generally weaken good conditions in the South too. It does look a short lived down turn though as High pressure is then shown by most models to regain control across the UK with fine and warm conditions developing for all by and over next weekend and into week 2. The main difference between yesterdays and todays output is an underlying problem we have had for ages now in that we cannot seem to get High pressure in exactly the right place with the centre always wanting to position just to the West and SW rather than over the UK. These small synoptical differences can and do have radical surface differences in conditions across the British Isles which on this occasion look like reserving the very best of conditions across the South and West of the UK. Nevertheless there remains a lot of reason for optimism and all areas should enjoy some fine and warm conditions still across the next few weeks though we may be chasing areas of cloud in a West or NW breeze at times across the North and East.

Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 13th 2015

It might back away the unwanted cool conditions which had been very frequent here this month and a very poor month in temps wise but great month for seeing lot of sunshine.  It just need a boost on temperatures to reach 27-32C which is very normal for June's hot spells without interruptions like today so called 27C forecast which is already overcast here.  It seem a modern summer nowadays with dull and rain interfering every time the temps forecasted to be high.

Good to see the most stupid cold 15-18C maxes and near freezing overnight temps in Paris early next week had been watered down and bring back to realistic low 20's which is average for them. I am going to wear full summer clothing non-stop there so I can travel light and not to bring jumper or jacket since I put it away in early May.

Pretty good output this morning GFS and ECM the best. It's looking average to warm. very dry in these parts as well even tonight's storms look to be missing to the west of here. We could be looking at grassland and heathland fires in a couple of weeks as its already bone dry here already.

Completely agree Jerry, this last week has been a stunning week for early June, warm, dry, light winds...perfect

The ECM Mean is stunning for warm sunny weather . Best of the summer so far! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1442.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

That's more like it. :-)

Definitely and the GFS ensembles are just as good all the way out to day 16. 

I can confirm London Fire Brigade have seen a significant number of smaller grass fires this week.... Including an outbreak in Eastbrook Country Park in Dagenham on Wednesday which required the attendance of 30 Firefighters on 6 appliances. This is the largest so far this year for LFB following an increased number or incidents during April's warm spell which were curtailed by the wetter conditions in May. 

If you mean will it be wrong, then possibly. When you say "repeat", well we have had cracking weather here for pretty much the last 10 days (today aside, although even then it's nothing like as bad as forecast)

That's despite me reading every day about downgrades and so called "cold weather". Not here and was never likely either. Not by a long chalk. Makes me laugh on here at times. 

Agreed.  The weather has been fine mostly and we've just had 2 cracking summer days.  Its looking HP dominated within the reliable (to 144)

Not cold in absolute terms and not cool at all for the majority in the last few days, however the month so far has been one to three degrees colder than the seasonal norm so far. For most locations in the UK (North and South). Pretty dry but certainly cooler than average albeit quite pleasant at times. Also of interest, albeit a little off topic is the forecast for snow down to 600m up here on Sunday. Not unheard of but rather chilly for June.

On a more positive note the outlook, next couple of days excepted, is generally settled and indeed warm at times for many. After a few "usable" days in the last week I would welcome that. The ECM 12z looks generally rather nice and summery for the majority of the run. 

Yeah, there will almost always be areas that don't do as well, or a damn sight worse. I just get tired of reading the same ridiculous sweeping statements by the odd few about what an awful summer we are having, when in reality we absolutely are not. Not here anyway, and for most there have been far worse starts to a summer in recent years. Just for balance of course....

its all about that word 'perception' again Matty. IMO 'cracking' is a bit too strong a word to describe the last 10 days weather in our little patch. Both cold winds and cold nights have featured too much of late, ask any gardener that and while yesterday offered some real warmth it was the very fact that it felt so warm compared to conditions on the days before that made it stand out so much by many. 10 days of yesterday's weather are what quantifies the word 'cracking' to me but that of course is just my perception.

mind you that's not to say that I think the last 10 days weather have been bad 'cause they definately haven't.

As it happens I thought tonight's ECM was a very decent run for many out to day 8