It wouldn't surprise me to see GFS in the next few runs somewhat reduce the intensity of the low in the atlantic next weekend. The way it suddenly ramps up the strength of the said low from 144hrs to 168hrs on it's 12z run looks more than somewhat odd to my eyes. UKMO at 144hrs couldn't be more different with HP strengthening from the east if anything.

ECM out to 96 and appears closer to the UKMO run

Or maybe not. The ECM 120 is virtually a carbon copy of the GFS for the same time. 

Ah, meteociel! Need to add that to my bookmarks. That's a great chart for t144. In line with the UKMO.

edit: Thanks Matty. I agree I prefer the wetterzentrale look.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Meteociel seem to be quickest, although I hate the look of their charts compared to wetterenzalerlzzalleterazzalenezzrer 

Agreed looks much better on Wetterzentrale . Nice chart maybe mid 30s in the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

Remember we've had several days of heat beforehand though so a reduction in 850t's might not equal a cooldown? 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

You're quite right - that's just me nitpicking. They get warmer on Saturday anyway - so all in all an excellent run. Hopefully the GFS will back down and move in line with the Euros soon.

Hot run for the East mid 30s again with 20c 850s.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

Looks like the Azores high is in control for now.

crikey you sound like somebody else on here with quotes like that. 😂

looks hot humid and potentially increasingly thundery to me.

Azores high moves in cooler but still mid 20s for the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

Personally, I'm treating all output for beyond Friday with a pinch of salt at the moment. ECM 12z seems to be backing up GFS wrt a breakdown of sorts from the west next weekend, but I'll only become more convinced of this happening if the models remain consistent with this over the coming few days.

It's worth remembering that up until 2-3 days ago, most model runs were indicating that this plume during the week ahead would only briefly affect the SE of the UK, while areas further to the north and west remained under the influence of the atlantic. The HP to the east now looks as though it will have more of a say in things than appeared to be the case a few days back. I think that sometimes they have a tendency to underestimate the strength of areas of HP while at the same time overcooking lows coming in from the west.

Indeed anything past 144h is very much FI. For what it's worth ECM breaks the weather down by day 10 but still pretty warm for the South with mid 20s.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Bear in mind that we reached 25C today with 850s of just 7-8C!

It does not really matter about this breakdown David but it does about the general trend of pressure rises after these breakdowns from the south or s/west which at the moment looks a very good trend for summer 2015 as per IF which Matty posted earlier.

That's the key point and one very good trend to have right now for summer 2015

With ECM mean this warm at day 10 an extended heatwave is still very much an option.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

A quick question based on the various model outputs to those much more expert than me...

What are the chances of this July being the hottest in the cet record and could we see a July cet above 20c??