June has been another month of somewhat below average temperatures although that is set to change as we transition into July. The question is will the brief heatwave this week translate into a warm month overall? 

Please post your July CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Tuesday evening (30th). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 July.

July historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

The last two years have seen a decent July with 17.7C in 2014 and 18.3C in 2013. Prior to that we had two cold years in 2011 and 2012 with 15.2C and 15.5C respectively. Highest July CET on record was 19.7C in 2006 and the coldest was 13.4C in 1816.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 16.5C
1981-2010: 16.7C
1995-2014: 16.8C

Here is a chart of the July CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Current model output

The current model output suggests the whole of the first half of July could be a above average albeit not as hot as the first few days.

GEFS
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
Looking above average throughout

Met Office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
Generally fairly warm with the best of the weather in the south and East

ECM - De Bilt
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
Looking very warm indeed for the first two weeks of the month

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

Pattern matching (just for fun)

The chart below shows the July CET for years since 1950 when the May / June CET combination has been very similar to the current year. What this shows is that many years saw a very cold July. A few saw an average month. However, there are a small number in more recent years where July turned out very warm. Given the current model output it seems that this is perhaps where we are heading in 2015. Interestingly July 1983 is in the list and this is currently the second warmest July on record. We will do well to get anywhere near that but I think there is a very good chance we might see the CET getting to 18C or more.

July CET tracker

Here are the current prediction charts for the first part of July. Looking very warm indeed to start but temperatures quickly falling back to average by the end of the first week.

Going for ...  16.14 ...  for me please....

Here are some predictions already received prior to the thread being opened

Caz 16.5C

lanky 16.0C

Stormchaser 18.2C

Grandad 19.1C

This will be a tough one.

Its going to be a hot start.  But will the heat persist/return?   Can we have a 3rd hot July in a row?

Hmmm. 

I think so.

I am going for 17.6c 

Thanks GW...

Should be some very entertaining guesses this month!

A mean of 17.6c is NOT hot, warm(ish) and above average but not hot!!

Im going for HOT 19.5c

17.64 please

:)

18.2 please GW 

17.8c please.

17.9 C please.

17.97c please

Might as well make a go for it now.

I'll go for.

18.0C

Hmmm

One of those months where a guess for hot seems safe but there'a few hints of us ending up on the cooler side of things later on. Doubt this would mitigate what looks like a seriously hot first half of the month but you never know I 'spose.

Think I'll hedge a bit and go 17.7c

I'll go for 18.3C :)

Purly subjectively, I would say for July or August CET's:

20's - Amazing!

19's - Very hot

18's - Hot

17's - Very warm

16's - Warm (average)

15's - Cool

14's - Very cool

13/12's - Forget About It!

19.01c please.

Well the Met Office contingency planners forecast suggests the temperature probabilities for July are basically in line with the long run average

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/h/m/A3_plots-temp-JAS.pdf

16.9C for me.

The initial heatwave will flatter to deceive. Chances of another one in July are low in my view. Not to say we won't see some very pleasant weather at times but overall a fairly average month.

Hot start, but I'm guessing more or less average after that.

I'll go for:

17.6C

18.12C