theweatheroutlook

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picturesareme
29 June 2015 08:22:42

Okay a day or so early but as there is a risk of storms from as early early as the morning hours of July 1st I figured why not.


I have a confession and that is when when the term 'tropical downpour' is used so casually to describe a downpour on here... 


This is is a tropical downpour..


http://youtu.be/6l9LxISrDtc 


I have seen this kind of rain in the UK, but it's far rarer then one might think if they read forums like these during rainy days lol.


So here's hoping for some overnight Flash Bangs over the coming week ⚡️⚡️😊☀️☀️

Charmhills
29 June 2015 08:33:31

Late Wednesday and into early Thursdays for Central areas at the moment looks most at risk IMO.


Then there's late Friday and Saturday and possibly even Sunday depending on which model you look at.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
picturesareme
29 June 2015 08:38:58


Late Wednesday and into early Thursdays for Central areas at the moment looks most at risk IMO.


Then there's late Friday and Saturday and possibly even Sunday depending on which model you look at.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


If the met computerised updates are to be believed then showers over Hampshire as early as sunrise on Wednesday morning.

nsrobins
30 June 2015 06:02:14
High res ppn places an axis of convection on a line Oxford to IOW from Weds am moving NNW. Highest temps likely east of this.
Could be interesting for folks stuck under thundery outbreaks until after lunch wondering where the hot sun has got to.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
30 June 2015 06:47:00
I would be surprised not to see some thunderstorms later today in parts of the north.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Charmhills
30 June 2015 09:39:27

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1435705200


A watch out for severe thunderstorms for Northern England.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Arcus
30 June 2015 10:10:28


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1435705200


A watch out for severe thunderstorms for Northern England.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Quite a strongly worded watch that one, but location liable to change, and storms likely to be isolated. Supercell development a possibility - reminds me of this set-up:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050619.gif

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Arcus
30 June 2015 11:50:26
As I mentioned last night, some orographic forcing may initiate some convection this afternoon. Some limited signs of this over N. Wales and the Pennines now.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
GIBBY
30 June 2015 14:56:05

Some lightning returns now from a pocket of instability around Brest.

Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset


Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Rich mt
30 June 2015 16:32:12

Some tantalizing very faint and distant convection seen south over the channel from Poole.

Poole, Dorset
Arcus
30 June 2015 16:59:09
Some quite heavy returns showing up in the showers over western Scotland, with a couple of sferics thrown in as well.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Arcus
30 June 2015 17:33:20
Timing key to the risk areas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Looks like the cold front is not as quick on it's eastward push tomorrow, so I suspect the warning area given by the MetO to be refined westward to cover Pennine areas, NW England, and central/E of Scotland.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2015 17:38:00


Some lightning returns now from a pocket of instability around Brest.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 


And in the past hour the blue skies in this part of South Dorset have gone to be replaced by some Altocumulus castellanus.


What seems to be some (fast?)developing activity near the Channel Islands too and a blob near Portland on the Rain Today site


Nick

Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
WanderingLonelyAsACumulonimbusIncus
30 June 2015 17:52:14

Timing key to the risk areas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Looks like the cold front is not as quick on it's eastward push tomorrow, so I suspect the warning area given by the MetO to be refined westward to cover Pennine areas, NW England, and central/E of Scotland.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


I wonder if that gives central and eastern areas a better shot at 35C?

Malcolm UserPostedImage
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE
Rich mt
30 June 2015 17:56:09

Alto cumulus flocus overhead for last half hour now.
Poole, Dorset
picturesareme
30 June 2015 18:29:14
Some alto & casta here too .
picturesareme
30 June 2015 18:31:45
Looking south can see some cb towers out over sea.
picturesareme
30 June 2015 18:59:12
Boom boom, what things of beauty ...

UserPostedImage 
Rich mt
30 June 2015 19:27:36

Very nice picturesareme! It's a cracking evening, beautiful cloud scapes.
Poole, Dorset
Arcus
30 June 2015 19:31:38
That Channel activity is walking the strait of desolation that has so long been a convective graveyard. Interesting to see what happens as it makes landfall.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
yorkshirelad89
30 June 2015 19:55:50

Some impressive CB clouds just passing to my east, must be around the Portsmouth area. Not exactly in the forecast, I think, shows storms may pop up anywhere.


edit: havn't updated my location but I'm in Southampton now :)

Hull
eddied
30 June 2015 19:57:06
Interestingly its currently trying to build rather than decay, but as you say, few cells manage the treacherous crossing and with sun heading ever lower the energy source is basically gone now.

Meh. If it waters my allotment for me overnight I'll be happy.
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
picturesareme
30 June 2015 20:05:21

Interestingly its currently trying to build rather than decay, but as you say, few cells manage the treacherous crossing and with sun heading ever lower the energy source is basically gone now.

Meh. If it waters my allotment for me overnight I'll be happy.

Originally Posted by: eddied 


There is enough heat and humidity still... 

picturesareme
30 June 2015 20:14:07
There is a lot of visible virga with this lot... Probably explains the radar picking up all the rain but with very little on the ground.
Arcus
30 June 2015 20:16:07

There is a lot of visible virga with this lot... Probably explains the radar picking up all the rain but with very little on the ground.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


High-based storms PaM - quite possible to see lightning with no rainfall.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

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