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WanderingLonelyAsACumulonimbusIncus
03 July 2015 17:06:59


 


I wouldn't rule yourself out in the SE, although storms that do form likely to be isolated, but intense. The problem further west is that we may end up with a flabby un-electrified convective mess. The sweet spot will probably be to the east of this rain, which looks like it might be... Lincolnshire of course!


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Yeah I'm thinking of heading to Lincolnshire tonight, somewhere like Grantham or Newark-on-Trent is easily accessible from my location tonight. There is the "thundery rain" scenario for western, northern and some central areas in particular tonight I think. 

Malcolm UserPostedImage
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE
picturesareme
03 July 2015 17:07:47
Clouds are now beging to form with some Alto cumulus & castellanus.

picturesareme
03 July 2015 17:36:27
Now have towers.

I reckon showers/ storms will be breaking out within the next 1-2 hours, clouds are drifting towards the N/NE.
Rich mt
03 July 2015 18:27:23

Looking and feeling very thundery.
Poole, Dorset
picturesareme
03 July 2015 18:29:17
As suspected I see showers have begun to brake out to my north over the South Downs.
Arcus
03 July 2015 18:50:55

As suspected I see showers have begun to brake out to my north over the South Downs.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Those returns have been coming and going for a while now. Just anaprop atm.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2015 18:51:49

As suspected I see showers have begun to brake out to my north over the South Downs.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



I think the returns maybe anaprops. as they have been showing on and off for sometime now.  Not expecting too much, if anything, until much later.

Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
Arcus
03 July 2015 19:02:23

nSome showers breaking out over Devon/Cornwall and S. Wales. Not much sign of electrification just yet.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
picturesareme
03 July 2015 19:07:40
Not anaprop, can see defined development with cores on the netweather radar. They're short lived and light, but the seem to be moving in the direction the clouds are. Traveling over the South Downs, south of Salisbury & Winchester. From Portsmouth you can see clearly some deep cumulus clouds along the northern horrizon.

There is definetly Anoprop showing just off the coast by the IOW.
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2015 19:07:43

Our good friend Anna Proppe is out and about tonight!


 


has anyone else noticed there is often a line of that French lady in the channel which looks very much like it is caused by the Spinaker? 

https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
Arcus
03 July 2015 19:16:14




I think the returns maybe anaprops. as they have been showing on and off for sometime now.  Not expecting too much, if anything, until much later.


Originally Posted by: POD 


Yes, definitely anaprop. Nothing really on vis-sat either.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Polar Low
03 July 2015 19:25:59

interesting that cloud development to our far s/west


a few sparks on that front line


http://de.sat24.com/de


 


 


 

bledur
03 July 2015 19:26:02


 


Yes, definitely anaprop. Nothing really on vis-sat either.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Just looked that up as i did not know what you meant. Anomalous propogation . Can be caused by high humidity apparently so that is quite likely in this case perhaps.

Arcus
03 July 2015 19:38:40
All looks a bit quiet on the south western front doesn't it? I'm just looking at current DPs and wondering if they are somewhat under performing against expectations.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
LeedsLad123
03 July 2015 19:54:21
You think so Arcus? I was looking at the WRF-NMM model and it wasn't suggesting much in the way of anything by this time. Think we'll have to wait a bit later for anything substantial to get going. For this part of the world, probably not until the early hours of tomorrow - I'm thinking 4am or so.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Charmhills
03 July 2015 19:57:25

Showers are breaking out on Net radar though very well scattered but a few locally heavy already.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2015 19:58:17

Starting to show development parts of SW England but more so in Wales.

Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
Arcus
03 July 2015 20:09:40

You think so Arcus? I was looking at the WRF-NMM model and it wasn't suggesting much in the way of anything by this time. Think we'll have to wait a bit later for anything substantial to get going. For this part of the world, probably not until the early hours of tomorrow - I'm thinking 4am or so.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


I've no doubt that things will get going, but I have a nagging suspicion that there's a) not the forecast instability/moisture present, and b) forcing will deliver a convective mess to most.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Stormchaser
03 July 2015 20:42:45

Just waiting for the cooler air at the high levels to race over the warmer air at the mid-levels and trigger a mass of explosive convection. Or at least something thundery!


It will be interesting to see how well it organises into a banded feature this time around when compared to the event in mid-July last year (17th was it?)

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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Keep Calm and Forecast On
Charmhills
03 July 2015 20:45:01

Things are developing here as we have giant spots of rain trying to come down from increasingly threaten sky's.


Net radar is showing developments to my south to.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Duckiepuddle
03 July 2015 21:22:19

Thunder happening from out Saints way... again


Seems to have sprung up from nowhere, just like Wednesday.

Twitter: KnowsleyWeather@DuckieWeather
Girthmeister
03 July 2015 21:32:34

Some intense regions of activity scurrying north from the Channel now - landfall made in Dorset. Anyone out there getting any decent weather?

Arcus
03 July 2015 21:34:57
Compare and contrast the BBC current forecast radar images for 22:00 with what's actually been happening...
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
schmee
03 July 2015 21:35:46

Awaiting the forcast  storms  but it  looks like the activity is out to the west of here. Liking the posts.👍

Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
thor22
03 July 2015 21:44:16
Rain and lightning now in Stockport
Rob
Marple
SE Manchester

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