HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JULY 14TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A trailing front will continue to affect Southern Britain today before clearing away to the SE tomorrow with a weak ridge of High pressure affecting all areas for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Rather warm in the SE at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing to blow East across the UK for the remainder of this week, strengthening later as a deeper Low tracks to the NW of the UK. The flow then continues to meander well South of it's normal July trajectory and maintains it's stance across the UK before turning more North to South across the UK late in the period, probably due to a pressure build across the Atlantic.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to illustrate a very changeable pattern of weather, always worst in the North with frequent bouts of rain and showers on a Westerly breeze. There looks to be occasional rain too in the South at times though here it will remain more sporadic as High pressure always lies close to the South with some warm air wafting over these areas at times and bringing some summery sunshine. The theme for later in the run is for cooler NW or North winds to develop across the UK with Low pressure close to the East and SE with a change of weather type bringing rain and showers more to the East and SE with best weather then in the West though likely to be cooler for all by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also keeps the well worn pattern of weather going over the next week or so with the North seeing some wet and for a time very windy weather while the South sees the best of fine and warm weather from High pressure lying close by to the South for a lot of the time. Nevertheless some weak fronts will reach here too with cloud and a little rain along with humid air at times. Then through Week 2 all areas are shown to be settled briefly in association with a High celll moving East over Britain followed by renewed Low pressure for all with rain at times and more generally cooler and breezier conditions to end the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning strongly support a Low pressure belt to lie between Iceland and Norway in two weeks time with High pressure well out to the SW of the UK. This means the emphasis would be on West to NW winds and spells of rain or showers across the UK in relatively cool air with the best of any dry spells likely over the South.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a deepening Low running NE over Ireland and Northern Scotland at the end of the working week with rain and gales to the NW. After a very warm interlude to the SE all areas are then shown to freshen up over the weekend with a lot of dry weather with some sunshine though the NW always look prone to further troughs from Atlantic Low pressure towards the start of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow this morning's raw data well as it illustrates the passage of a deepening Low moving NE at the end of the week across the NW. There could be gales in the NW for a time and a band of rain or thundery showers to cross East over many areas weakening as it goes on Friday introducing a fresher weekend with sunshine and just a few showers in the wake of the Low.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today also shows the deepening Low too with strong winds for the North and West for a time and as a cold front moves East patchy rain or showers introduces fresher air to a warm SE by the weekend. After a reset weather pattern to that of recently occurs for a time early next week winds then are shown to switch NW or North with cool and showery conditions likely to spread to all parts at the end of the 10 day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today has it's own version of a depression moving NE across the UK at the end of the week moving forward thereafter with a reset weather pattern of a North/South split in conditions next week with rain at times in a Westerly breeze in the North with plenty of dry and bright weather across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today also shows the Low at the end of the week giving a windy and wet period to the NW but with no more than a glancing blow to the South, this in the shape of a weakening trough with patchy rain or a thundery shower to the warm and humid SE as it goes through on an Eastward track. Thereafter a fresher reset pattern of a Northwest/SE split in the weather is likely for a time next week before the growing trend illustrated by other output to switch winds to a cooler NW'ly is shown late in the run with showers in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows a Low pressure zone to the North and NE of the UK with a slow slide into a cooler NW'ly flow looking possible rather than the moist and often warm SW feed we have had in the South of late.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main theme of a possible shift of emphasis to veer winds from the mild SW to a cooler NW flow across the UK has some cross model support this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.5 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.1 pts followed by GFS at 81.3 and UKMO at 80.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.5 pts over GFS's 49.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 32.1 pts to 28.3 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS Changes remain slow but subtle in the weather over the up and coming forecast period. The basic premise of higher pressure to the South and SE remains with lower pressure towards the NW or North. The lower pressure to the NW gets a boost later this week as a deepening Low moves NNE over Ireland and Scotland on Thursday and Friday with the risk of gales and some heavy rainfall for a time. It's influence to the SE will be less clear cut with some very warm and humid air pumped up from Europe ahead of it before becoming quickly replaced by cooler and fresher Atlantic air behind a short risk of thundery showers on the weakening cold front as it travels East on Friday. Most models then support a pattern reset to something similar to what we have now witha NW/SE split looking likely with the best but not exclusive chance of any dry and bright conditions down here while the North and West continue more changeable with rain at times in cooler air which could extend further SE at times. Then by far the most notable point of this morning's output is some cross model support including the ensembles and clusters that pressure could build further North through the Atlantic in the second week. This would have a knock on effect of pulling a cold front SE over all areas with some rain before introducing a spell of cooler NW winds and showery conditions especially towards the North and East. This change would also affect our near European neighbours as this scenario could push the previously summer long heat experienced by much of France and NW Europe further away to the SE which could hinder any return of warmth from that direction to the UK for some time. However, even if this pattern does verify High pressure never looks likely to be far away to the West and SW so no summer monsoon looks likely with just showers on a cool breeze looking more likely than anything else more dramatic and as far as how this will affect the feel of the weather for us across the UK will be concentrated around the removal of the high humidity than has blighted Southern Britain of late and quite frequently so far this summer with some cooler fresher nights likely. It's all a long way out though and there is plenty of time for this trend to be diluted or removed in the up and coming days.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday July 15th 2015

All I'm hoping to see now is some properly settled weather. A good starting point would be the removal of that pesky Greenland High and the troublesome atlantic trough that both seem to have been in situ since the back end of June. Until these both go, and there are some consistent suggestions from GFS and ECM that this may start to happen during next week, we won't get of the rut we've been in lately.

That is the only way to a settled spell that covers more or less the whole country with the Azores High building in over us, instead of something that was little more than a one-day wonder, such as what happened a couple of weeks ago.

This is simply just not true. June was blighted with unseasonably cold nights!! July to has seen it's share of unseasonably cold 'fresh' nights too down here, mixed with one or two exceptionally warm ones, so I  would hardly call the couple of overcast mild humid nights of late a 'blight', more a blessing considering how crap the summer nights have generally been this year. 

Humid nights are normal for the summer. Cool fresh nights are not. Humidity rises as the temperatures fall, this is normal. 

Yes 90% humidity at 16C is very humid but it's only 16C - hardly tropical lol... Coupled with day maxes of 19-21C and plenty of cloud, it's fair easy to sleep due to lack of daytime heating of the house.

I'm baffled as to why anybody would want a return to spring night temps, especially given the year so far. As a gardener I certainly do not want the return 8C-13C overnight lows!! They can return in mid September when they're supposed too.

We can't seem to catch a break at the moment with the record breaking heat so close to our  South we cant get a direct feed for long. The closest we get is this in a week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

 Then a recurring theme at the moment a northerly at day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Frustrating sums it up at the moment but small changes could lead to a significant heatwave coming out of 'nowhere'

If this chart at the end show a massive HP that are bigger than UK there no excuse to just to drop down or deflated and give us a NW/SE split as it so big it should cover the whole of UK as it move eastward to give us a long waited nationwide heatwave.  Frustrating yes but surely we are entitled to get some heat as it cannot stay bottled up forever.

Latest EC32 playing catchup and after having a +ve pressure anom over the UK rest of July, now has a -ve one = unsettled signal

00Z ENS 24th to 29th (11-15 day) continue to highlight the cyclonic trend with winds generally from the W or NW.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

And now they had been wrong for this week as it was supposed to be at +ve but we are already in the -ve for a long time as it never been overly settled every where except 1 day in July and we been under the W or NW since Spring as well.  As they had been very wrong in the past and likely again to be wrong for the last week of July as well.

A really settled spell is when HP over us or just to the east of us that lasted for days and nationwide than the SE.

I would agree - Much of June had some notably cool nights, aside from some brief plumes.

The current humidity is due to the proximity of a slow moving front that has only appeared this week.

Summer has been pretty standard for the UK so far and locally quite dry.

I can confirm that as a moth trapper, conditions for much of this year have been rubbish overnight (too cool).

Now that you've mentioned it I don't think I've seen a single hawk moth yet this year, I have though seen plenty of house moths - no doubt getting fat on carpet 😂

The cool nights have done little to discourage the spiders though *shudders*, garden cross spiders especially gave been prolific.

I never express my preferences in my reports and say it as I see it. I am a keen gardener too and there has been a lot of very mild nights recently and humidity since this pattern has been set up has nearly always been high in the South with just a few cooler, fresher nights.  For example my average minimum temperatures since the start of July is 11.4C, hardly cold and I live in a valley too. Yes I concede there was some chilly June nights which I suppose I should of mentioned in my summary-sorry. With winds feeding from the NW in the charts after a weeks or so the cool nights will indeed come, like it or not. it certainly isn't my preference but just what the 00z charts show. I certainly wasn't advocating the return of near frost nights but just cooler nights more comfortable for sleeping which nobody down here would mind.

Incidentally my own thoughts about Summer so far is that it's not been at all bad with plenty of dry weather for many and while there hasn't been a lot of direct long warm spells things on the whole could of been a lot worse and have been in some recent summers past.

I agree with 'Duane' in that some people spend to much time model watching and forget to take note about what's happening outside in the here and now.

Taking July on it's own I'd say the nights have been overall around average. However this average masks some extremes, one night for example around 22C and another at 8C, the average for July is around 15C. 

But June was poor for night temps, and this cannot be ignored.

I appologise for going off on a rant. But when you refer to the nights being 'Blighted' this does come across as a somewhat of a personal opinion of how you perceive it, and in the same sentence you mention how common this has been this summer.. Well the urge to moan over took me.  

 The weather will do what the weather wants and there's nothing you, I, or anybody else can do to change it. 

Sorry again for the rant.

Exactly. I always like your term "useable weather" in that context.