Usual rules. 

GFS ensembles look a bit better today. Warmer longer term and ostensibly dry(for London)

After a 2 day cooler more unsettled blip ECM settles things down by next Friday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

Then the heat arrives again high 20s for the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Yes you can see the uncertainty after the 8th but many go warm afterwards if not hot. Similar to the ECM Op

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ECM ends on a very warm if not hot note for the South a very good run . Looking back there is barely a 1 day blip for the south. BANK!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JULY 3RD 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will move away NE as a thundery trough of Low pressure moves North across the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by a cooler and fresher SW airflow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and fine weather but occasional rain at times especially in the NW. Chance of thundery showers at times too towards the SE. Generally rather warm.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing across the Atlantic towards Biscay then turning NE over the UK. This pattern persists for a time before the flow veers West to East and possibly NW to SE over us later next week. In the outer reaches of the run the flow weakens in situ for a while before rejuvenating across the UK in a NE'ly direction in two weeks time.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows the very warm conditions remaining tantalizingly close to Southern Britain through the next 5 days or so while the rest of the UK more quickly become cooler and more changeable with some rain or showers at times in an Atlantic Westerly flow. The cooler air finally reaches the far South later next week while pressure rises again from the West. The second week then shows High pressure building and relaxing again periodically from the South ensuring that the weather remains generally quite settled in the South and very warm at times with any more unsettled conditions remaining most likely over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows a similar route although from the onset of the second week it is more bullish about High pressure settling things down across all of the UK then with some very warm and sunny conditions developing for all regions throughout Week 2

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters look good this morning with the vast majority of members suggesting that the UK will lie under the influence of High pressure from the Azores with just a handful of members today going fo something a little more unsettled from off the Atlantic.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows weakening Low pressure across the North early next week with a slack Westerly flow across the UK. Pressure remains High to the South so the patchy rain and showers across the UK will be most prolific for the North with a hint of fine and warm conditions developing back across the UK later in the week looking possible.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air on a SW breeze through the early days of next week with troughs to the West threatening some outbreaks of more persistent rain by Tuesday, especially in the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a more changeable phase under cooler conditions on a Westerly breeze early next week. Pressure then rises with some fine and sunny weather for a time across the South and East where it is likely to become warm before a return to cooler Atlantic Westerlies is shown again for all to end the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a cooler and more showery phase early next week but this run tooshows High pressure re-establishing across at least Southern areas later next week with increasinag amounts of warm or very warm sunshine while any cooler and more unsettled conditions become confined to the far North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today continues the theme that cureently lies across the UK with spells of warm or very warm and sunny weather interrupted at times by thundery rain as cooler air invades from the Atlantic only for the cycle to repeat again thereafter. It does show a briefly more general cool off early next week as winds switch West or NW for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to look good with a ridge from the Azores close to the South of Britain and with warm uppers it looks like the chances of some very warm air still over the South looks high.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today looks in favour of plenty of fine and warm weather likely still with just brief interruptions from cooler and more showery phases, these chiefly in the North.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.1 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.3 pts with GFS at 81.6 pts and UKMO at 81.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 45.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.7 pts to 28.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS I'm overall not unhappy with the output this morning as it looks like the weather will remain quite slow moving with regard to changes over the coming weeks. True there is a strong suggestion that the weather will cool down for all early next week as winds tilt more West or NW for a time with some showery rain about too but this only serves to pump up new High pressure across the UK through the middle of next week to return fine and in places very warm weather again especially towards the South and East. I am glad to see that the suggestions of yesterday from ECM for High pressure to be positioned to the SW and a NW flow to become established has been dropped for now with the High pressure areas remaining or moving to a position to the South, SE or East and permitting warm feeds of Southerly or SW winds across the UK. It looks unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of recently though with the mid to high 20'sC looking more likely as there looks to be too much of a SW aspect to the wind to present a true Spanish Plume type event this side of the Channel in the next couple of weeks but nevertheless as Atlantic fronts move up against these high temperatures there is plenty of chance for thundery showers to break out at times especially towards the SE. So all in all reasons to be optimistic from the models this morning with South and East of the UK best as usual but even the North and West will share in some very pleasantly warm conditions at times between the showery phases likely there.

Next update from 08:00 Saturday July 4th 2015

I think this summer the heat would focus on W Europe instead of East Europe and Russia as they are much cooler this year.  I also read on Cyprus Mail from their Met office predict their summer going to be cooler to average and this morning Larnaca ensembles show bang on the average throughout.  

It our turn to get the heat instead of watching other side especially Moscow get all the heat.  Most likely for now around 25-30C here but we not done for a serious heat as we still have time to get another one.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Fair July From JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Signals looking OK for coming month...

Certainly looks good doesnt it

Nice.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Really?

The 6z GFS is much better for fine, nationwide weather

I agree, Saint. GFS 06z is a pretty decent run for virtually all of the UK in terms of generally settled weather.

Thankfully GFS has shifted next week's Scandi trough a bit to the east on the 12z op run compared to the 06z op, meaning it bears greater resemblance to the ECM 00z op run - though still not quite as warm Fri-Sat.

The picture by next weekend reflects a classic 'Omega Block' setup, with the jet diving south in the mid-Atlantic, then heading north to the west of the UK, curving around to dive back south to the east of the UK. It follows a shape similar to the Greek letter Omega.

This particular version of events doesn't dive far south enough in the Atlantic to raise the threat of that intense heat returning from the south. In fact the Atlantic setup is markedly different to recent runs with much more of an Azores High in play - giving me reason to look at that with low confidence. It leads to a low sliding into the UK not far into FI - though that could easily have occurred to the SW of the UK with interesting results.

Lets see what ECM brings to the party later this evening.

The mean looks even better

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=162&mode=0&carte=1

Good hold of pressure on that mean for the south warming up with time

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

in fact both look good with that omega looking block

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Lovely very warm day 6 chart from ECM 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

Hot by this time next week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

Goes totally breasts skyward immediately afterward. I'm not fussed though. At the range all the models are changing with every run. 

It does a bit but the signs are there for another heatwave at the end of next week. It ends on a very warm note.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

GEM wants us to break the record again very hot!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1922.html

Huh. Didn't this happen before - ECM progressive, GFS wandering about, GEM really laying on the heat?

We went the way of GEM with the last round. Imagine if that happened again 

Indeed, not far east of Moscow, a substantial area 6C below average next week

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

N Miller did hint at signs of a warm up again towards the end of the week

Good.  The cold can stay there til December.

Horrible, messy pattern on all the models after midweek. No one can possibly place an ounce of confidence in any of them. None of the big three really delight me.