HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 22ND 2015. No report tomorrow-too busy.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A somewhat showery WSW flow continues to cover the UK today and tonight with a trough crossing East over England and Wales today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Becoming somewhat drier and warmer everywhere later in the period especially in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast keeps the flow blowing West to East across the South of the UK this week albeit quite lightly. Towards the start of next week it strengthens and if anything troughs further South over France for a time before retreating back North and weakening away late next week. Towards the end the slack flow over our latitude persists but it looks like a rejuventation of the flow near the UK could develop at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is still trying to bring us into a different weather pattern from the middle of next week. However, every push of High pressure across the UK seems doomed to be nudged away by further interventions of lower pressure from off the Atlantic with some rain or thundery showers at times. In the meantime we have another week or so to go of very changeable and quite cool weather early next week as a more coherent Low pressure crosses East and sets up a temporary NW flow with showers for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is slightly better in the long term with  several attemps of building pressure over the UK restricted to the South later next week before a High cell covers the UK late in the run with only then all of the UK enjoying fine and summery conditions. In the meantime it's business as usual with largely Westerly winds and occasional rain or showers with average temperatures turning rather cool for a time early next week.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days are not quite as good this morning with still a predominance biasing a High pressure ridge near the South in two weeks time. The percentage members suggesting something more changeable again with High pressure parked too far to the South or SW has increased somewhat this morning with only a 20% pack suggesting High pressure centred over the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a deep depression for this time of year crossing the UK by Monday with cloud, wind rain and showers for all for a time followed by a broad trough left over the UK to start next week with cool West or NW winds and showers at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a complex weather pattern this morning with slack conditions tomorrow and again on Saturday. On Friday a Low pressure area scoots up the English Channel with some wet conditions for the far South and showers for the North and as this exits the SE on Saturday a ridge is just a temporary phase ahead of another depression moving into the North of the UK to start next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a similar theme highlighting the two Low's, one on Friday for the South and a larger one for all areas next week as it moves East. As this Low exits towards next weekend a ridge follows but it looks likely to affect just the South for a day or two before the North and West then become under attack from further Atlantic fronts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps things altogether slacker across the UK for the whole run with some sunshine and dry weather mixed with changeable conditions when rain and showers feature almost anywhere. The run ends at Day 7 with a cool NW flow with Low pressure close to the NE with cool and showery weather for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is showing very changeable conditions for the period with innitially a fairly slack synoptic pattern delivering some showers at times over the coming days and perhaps more prolonged rain in the extreme South for a time on Friday. Sunday looks a reasonable day under a ridge before a depression crosses gently East over the UK through the early days of next week, deepening as it goes and setting up a cool and showery NW flow through midweek. High pressure then trundles in from the West towards next weekend but is almost immediately put pressure on by further Atlantic Low pressure moving in from the North Atlantic by Day 10, pushing it East and SE into NW Europe and probably resetting the pattern as currently.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows something of a ridge close to Southern Britain but this outcome is probably brought about by a mixture of options from members ranging from cool and unsettled Westerlies to High pressure across the UK and therefore I would take more credence from Clusters rather than this mean chart currently.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards an attempt of a pattern shift towards High pressure is still shown this morning but not as conclusively as yesterday with pressure being put on any UK High pressure from the Atlantic especially in the North.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.5 pts followed by UKMO at 94.9 pts and GFS at 94.1 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.2 pts followed by UKMO at 81.4 and GFS at 81.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.9 pts over GFS's 46.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 33.0 pts to 28.2 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS There are a lot of complexities within the atmosphere over the Northern hemisphere at the moment which continue to play havoc with relatively short term projections from the models let alone longer term ones. This morning's crop of output make things little clearer as there remains doubt on the extent if any on Friday's little Low and the amount of rain if any it brings to the South. Then there does seem some reasonable agreement that there will be a more active Low pressure crossing East over the UK next week with some rain for all and on it's rear side a cool NW flow with showers towards midweek. Pressure then is still shown to build across the UK later next week and weekend but the extent of this looks less defined this morning with a lot of suggestion that should it develop it might not hang around for long before the Atlantic polar fronts and depressions nudge it out of the way to the East and SE and possibly bring us back to the infamous NW/SE divide. It's all conjecture though at this range with such uncertainties lying within the almost here and now let alone a week or two down the line. Unfortunately I have to say what I see and to me it looks a little worrying today if it's fine and prolonged sunny UK wide weather your after for holidays etc. However, the output through the 12zs may offer something more akin to yesterday again and throw the complexion of the runs back more favourably again. The verification Statistics between the models which I update here every day tell their own story of how complex things are at the moment with at 10 days just between 28-32% accuracy in charts shown from ECM and GFS respectively and that likely to fall over the coming week or so. Meanwhile we have what we have and on the whole the weather down here in the South is pretty good for the most part this Summer. Of course that's not true of the North and I am sure inhabitants there would be happy to see the prospect of High pressure as a very welcome visitor in August. I feel we are half way to that verifying this morning but there's a lot of water to cross under the bridge yet before that is a ranked certainty.

Next update from 09:00 Friday July 22nd 2015

Friday is looking very wet on the latest Euro4 model for most of England especially.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/07/22/basis06/ukuk/prty/15072406_2206.gif

The Met/o 12z is unsettled tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

More cool wet weather for here! Please let this month end....I'm wearing a jumper again today and my shorts have only been out twice up here!

Typical... the one week where I need it to be settled and the weather looks terrible. Off to UEA to graduate tomorrow, we have a boat hired for Friday but the forecast looks rather dire now.

Then staying on the broads for a week on family holiday for the next week, fishing won't be fun in all the rain. Only hope is that it's convective rainfall thats more prominent after Friday but this could easily change.

Good old British weather, always nice when you don't need it to be, always raining when you need it to stay dry.

Same here- I have only had two days wearing shorts in the past couple of months, both of which were 6 weeks ago!

Not been as bad a summer here as the shocker that was 2012, but for me it certainly comes into the "could be much better" category. At least the end of tonight's ECM looks better for the turn of the month.

I'm not bothered about a heatwave now, just a dry, reasonably sunny and pleasantly warm spell will do!

From what I've just seen of Gavin Ps forecast - that's far too much to ask for now. I just hope this isn't part of a long term deterioration.

Shocking output tonight and the MetO run is dire indeed with some very cool conditions especially up north.

Note also the the MetO MRF has pushed the warmer spell into the 2nd week of August rather than the start, at this rate the north might see some fine weather come October!

Looking at the Atlantic SST profile posted earlier it's no wonder this summer has been so cool up north with July now certain to be another below average month, don't think I have ever seen the Atlantic with such low SST's relative to normal. Is the North Atlantic Conveyor finally shutting down?

Andy

This could have ramifications this winter - But I'm damned if I'm cold ramping at this stage :-(

Still another month of warming left but if doesn't then is a serious debate if this a blip or not.  I think the culprit is the HP melting all the glacier in Greenland and all the fresh water entering the sea causing the gulf stream shut down. 

Still a lot of water to pass under the bridge before we reach the start of August though. In fact, given how changeable it is and has been for a while and the tendency recently for forecasts to change at relatively short notice, it's an eternity away.

The earliest that a more settled spell has ever looked like arriving according to the models was/is the commencement of August, which is still 10 days away. The only change the models seem to have picked up on that I can see is the possible development of a second low crossing the UK next week after the one shown for Sunday & Monday has moved away to the east. GFS picked up on this first and ECM seems to have joined in on the 12z tonight. Whether this actually does develop as shown or not is another matter. The MetO, as far as I can tell, still seem to be having a bit of a headache over how far north Friday's LP to the south of England will track!

In most experience the Friday LP won't exist and never make it inroad here even in winter with snow hit France instead.  There already a downgrade the LP on Friday to slack LP over France instead of dartboard LP over London and may not effect us at the moment.  If they couldn't pick up any LPs and then sudden make a phantom LP does show that the models had lot of data missing as it odd how it just form out from no where and disappeared once leave UK. 

Agreed. No matter how much George wants this LP to disappear in a puff of smoke it does not look like happening.

This morning's EURO4 shows the rain getting quite far north

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=nae&VAR=prty&HH=36&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=nae&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

It is so bone dry in Kent I am really hoping we get a soaking on Friday, as the situation  is that rain is really required.  If we are unlucky we will miss out on this opportunity, but if things go our way we stand to benefit.

After that the weekend looks oK for the extreme east til Sunday afternoon. Some intense rainfall is possible on Sunday.

Monday looks a thoroughly windy and wet day at times, Tuesday is a less intense version of Monday, Wednesday could be a decent day for the SE but according to the 0z GFS the N and W get a soaking...

I was referring next week LP suddenly appeared from no where then become a dartboard LP then gone in a puff by Saturday with nationwide HP, that highly impossible to be that quick so my belief there no more Lows as we heading for a proper settled spell before this sorry July is out.  Clouds already arrived here so it likely the models and forecasts going very wrong again and 1 day in advance as they forecast a wall to wall sunshine today if the rain does come here by afternoon then surely next mid week phantom LP and Monday LP would be amended or not exist and be removed with more data sets correction.  Met forecast for a proper nationwide settled spell starting from 1st August seem to have their data we cannot access to here.

Interesting the satelittle show the LP already arrived here while the models show HP over here today right until Friday morning.  Clouds already arrived here as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn121.gif

It seem something change afoot and today forecast meant to be sunny day but now changed so it likely the models output after 12 hours are unreliable and best to ignore it.

Well according to GFS it doesn't seem like August will open on a warm and settled note this morning:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=198&mode=0

GEM delays it slightly but still the same result:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0&carte=0

ECM disagrees though and goes more with the MET forecast but not finished its run yet so hard to tell if the area of HP holds on:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Very difficult to believe any of the above currently; seems much like Winter at the moment where even 2 or 3 days ahead sometimes can be hard to forecast. JMA as per Gavin's video agrees on the MET's August settled view, but none of the long range models have been performing very well this Summer as Gavin has noted. Let's hope August is decent for everyone up North as at least we have had some Summer down here and I know it's been poor so far this Summer from Manchester northwards.

ECM is a cracking run and reduces the unsettled blip in the South to two days and offers hope to those north of the  Watford Gap as it does become HP dominated as Jiries says

Looking fairly wet.