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ARTzeman
22 July 2015 07:15:47

Blip or no bblip had a reading of 5.9c. for the 7th of this month ....





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Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 July 2015 13:44:42

Really quite remarkable seeing such a bank of cold air form in the north. Compare this to last year. 




 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gavin P
22 July 2015 13:59:34

Air-masses do look unusually chilly for the time of year Q.


Someone on my website was recently saying that we might have the coolest final ten day's to July in terms of CET since 1965!

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 July 2015 14:23:44


Air-masses do look unusually chilly for the time of year Q.


Someone on my website was recently saying that we might have the coolest final ten day's to July in terms of CET since 1965!


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Definitely would not surprise me. Do you follow the sea ice thread in the climate forum? What seems to be going on is a complete exodus of cold air from the arctic being dumped straight into the Atlantic. SSTs in the atlantic are cold enough as it is, I wonder what the long term impacts of this pattern could be for the winter if it keeps up.



And mixing of cold air with a relatively warm sea is bound to cause cyclogenesis, a cyclone embedded in cold air is the perfect condition for breaking the all time July minimax record. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gavin P
22 July 2015 15:49:17


 


Definitely would not surprise me. Do you follow the sea ice thread in the climate forum? What seems to be going on is a complete exodus of cold air from the arctic being dumped straight into the Atlantic. SSTs in the atlantic are cold enough as it is, I wonder what the long term impacts of this pattern could be for the winter if it keeps up.



And mixing of cold air with a relatively warm sea is bound to cause cyclogenesis, a cyclone embedded in cold air is the perfect condition for breaking the all time July minimax record. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I actually haven't been keeping up to date with the situation in the Arctic... But I'll have to start reading up cause as you know sea ice loss, etc... Makes up part of my winter forecast.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
LeedsLad123
22 July 2015 18:58:54

I saw someone post data for London Heathrow and 4/5 August was statistically the warmest day of the year, but it declines from there - albeit slightly. August in theory should be a good month - nearly as sunny as June despite much shorter daylight hours, and much warmer temps. July hasn't been so great in recent years either but 2013 kind of rescued it. August needs to deliver a proper heatwave soon.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
springsunshine
22 July 2015 19:14:24


I saw someone post data for London Heathrow and 4/5 August was statistically the warmest day of the year, but it declines from there - albeit slightly. August in theory should be a good month - nearly as sunny as June despite much shorter daylight hours, and much warmer temps. July hasn't been so great in recent years either but 2013 kind of rescued it. August needs to deliver a proper heatwave soon.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Agree about August needing to deliver a proper heatwave.


Imby August is the least reliable summer month for fine settled weather and also the most disappointing of the 3 summer months.In fact September most years has proved to be a much better month than august,last year was a classic example of that!


I can only remember 4 warm/hot settled Augusts= 1975,1976,1995&2003


June and July imo are the best two months of the year,with September a close 3rd.

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 July 2015 19:20:16


I saw someone post data for London Heathrow and 4/5 August was statistically the warmest day of the year, but it declines from there - albeit slightly. August in theory should be a good month - nearly as sunny as June despite much shorter daylight hours, and much warmer temps. July hasn't been so great in recent years either but 2013 kind of rescued it. August needs to deliver a proper heatwave soon.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


It can be a little deceptive though. I think the coldest day of the year statistically is in February; but January is still the coldest month. In regards to the warmest week that would be a very close battle between the last week of July and the first week of August. Perhaps the first week of August would have a slight edge. However Week 2,3 and 4 of August would loose out to week 3, 2 and 1 of July. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
picturesareme
22 July 2015 21:28:17


I saw someone post data for London Heathrow and 4/5 August was statistically the warmest day of the year, but it declines from there - albeit slightly. August in theory should be a good month - nearly as sunny as June despite much shorter daylight hours, and much warmer temps. July hasn't been so great in recent years either but 2013 kind of rescued it. August needs to deliver a proper heatwave soon.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


July 2014 was just as good as 2013. 

Global Warming
22 July 2015 21:49:54


Air-masses do look unusually chilly for the time of year Q.


Someone on my website was recently saying that we might have the coolest final ten day's to July in terms of CET since 1965!


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


That does sound about right. My latest calculations this evening suggest that the CET for the 10 days from 22 Jul to 31 July will come in at 14.20C. This is exactly the same figure as was recorded for the same 10 days in 1965.


There have been several years before 1965 when the CET for the last 10 days of July was only slightly above 14.2C. But to find a year where the last 10 days of July were lower than 14.2C you have to go back to 1902 when the figure was 13.99C. So we could see the coldest last 10 days of July since 1902.


Looking further back the coldest last 10 days of July since 1772 was 12.95C in 1845.


The CET return today was not too bad at 15.97C. If we just look at the last 9 days of July 2015 could see a CET mean of just 14.00C.


My calculations suggest the CET has fallen below 17C today and is now likely to finish at just 16.1C.


 

Global Warming
22 July 2015 21:59:30


 


It can be a little deceptive though. I think the coldest day of the year statistically is in February; but January is still the coldest month. In regards to the warmest week that would be a very close battle between the last week of July and the first week of August. Perhaps the first week of August would have a slight edge. However Week 2,3 and 4 of August would loose out to week 3, 2 and 1 of July. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Using the CET data the warmest week of the year using 1981-2010 data is 25-31 July with 17.31C. First week of August is just 16.98C.


The same result is obtained if the 1971-2000 data is used.


There are 10 days in the 1981-2010 data where the CET mean exceeds 17C. They are 20 July, 25-31 July, 5-6 Aug.


Warmest day is 29 Jul with 17.72C.


Coldest week of the year is 14-20 Feb with a CET of 3.76C. Coldest week in Jan is 22-28 with a CET of 4.25C.


Coldest day of the year is 14 Feb with 3.42C. Second coldest day is a bit of a strange one as it sits in isolation away from all the other cold days. It is 7 Jan with 3.44C. There is no other day in Jan below 4C.

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 July 2015 22:38:04


 


Using the CET data the warmest week of the year using 1981-2010 data is 25-31 July with 17.31C. First week of August is just 16.98C.


The same result is obtained if the 1971-2000 data is used.


There are 10 days in the 1981-2010 data where the CET mean exceeds 17C. They are 20 July, 25-31 July, 5-6 Aug.


Warmest day is 29 Jul with 17.72C.


Coldest week of the year is 14-20 Feb with a CET of 3.76C. Coldest week in Jan is 22-28 with a CET of 4.25C.


Coldest day of the year is 14 Feb with 3.42C. Second coldest day is a bit of a strange one as it sits in isolation away from all the other cold days. It is 7 Jan with 3.44C. There is no other day in Jan below 4C.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


Thanks GW! 


Is July the warmest overall month?


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Global Warming
23 July 2015 05:37:47


 


 


Thanks GW! 


Is July the warmest overall month?


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It is yes. If you look at the temperature charts for the UK on the Met Office website they clearly show July as slightly warmer than August across essentially the whole of the UK. This applies equally for maximums and minimums.

Jiries
23 July 2015 07:10:02


 


Using the CET data the warmest week of the year using 1981-2010 data is 25-31 July with 17.31C. First week of August is just 16.98C.


The same result is obtained if the 1971-2000 data is used.


There are 10 days in the 1981-2010 data where the CET mean exceeds 17C. They are 20 July, 25-31 July, 5-6 Aug.


Warmest day is 29 Jul with 17.72C.


Coldest week of the year is 14-20 Feb with a CET of 3.76C. Coldest week in Jan is 22-28 with a CET of 4.25C.


Coldest day of the year is 14 Feb with 3.42C. Second coldest day is a bit of a strange one as it sits in isolation away from all the other cold days. It is 7 Jan with 3.44C. There is no other day in Jan below 4C.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Yes I use the Toronto's version on daily high and low and last week of July is 26C for last 5 days and 1st week of August is average 27C again for 5 days then down to 22C by end of August which make my August average of 24.5C and 24.3C in July.


That was based on 2000-2009 data.

Sevendust
23 July 2015 08:04:24


July 2014 was just as good as 2013. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Certainly was


Meanwhile, August benefits greatly from heat lag, just as February does from cold lag.


Some of this relates to the effects of SST's which continue to warm into late summer.


As a month, the last really good August I can recall was 2003 which is quite a while back now whereas I can recall at least 3 very good Julys in that time.

picturesareme
23 July 2015 08:11:01


 


Certainly was


Meanwhile, August benefits greatly from heat lag, just as February does from cold lag.


Some of this relates to the effects of SST's which continue to warm into late summer.


As a month, the last really good August I can recall was 2003 which is quite a while back now whereas I can recall at least 3 very good Julys in that time.


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


That heat lag often carries on well into September too. Often the opening 10 days of September are more 'reliable' in bringing warmer sunnier weather then any 10 day period in June.

Sevendust
23 July 2015 08:16:10


 


That heat lag often carries on well into September too. Often the opening 10 days of September are more 'reliable' in bringing warmer sunnier weather then any 10 day period in June.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Yep - September has a habit of delivering some goodness 

Whether Idle
23 July 2015 08:33:06


 


Certainly was


Meanwhile, August benefits greatly from heat lag, just as February does from cold lag.


Some of this relates to the effects of SST's which continue to warm into late summer.


As a month, the last really good August I can recall was 2003 which is quite a while back now whereas I can recall at least 3 very good Julys in that time.


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


September outperforms June in temperature and sometimes even sunshine hours down here.  First half of September is often the best summer period.  Being a small island on the eastern edge of a vast ocean with westerly winds, almost nowhere on earth is the application of 21 June - 23 Sept as summer more applicable than  in Britain due to thermal lag!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Retron
23 July 2015 18:00:28

Hoping for the first below-average day in almost a month down here tomorrow - it's looking like we might not even make 20C!

Leysdown, north Kent
ARTzeman
24 July 2015 06:36:59

Low of 12.2c This morning at 07:28....





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
24 July 2015 08:36:48


Hoping for the first below-average day in almost a month down here tomorrow - it's looking like we might not even make 20C!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Two weeks since our last 20C
7.8C min, 14.3C now, we will be north of the rain but rather cloudy later.

North York Moors weather 
Gusty
24 July 2015 08:45:58

Just two days this month whereby the maximum temperature has not reached 20c. Quite impressive really given the month has been predominated by an onshore SW'ly wind at this coastal location.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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Essan
24 July 2015 08:55:16

Not sure when I last recorded a max below 20c, but the only time in the past month at Pershore was the 27th June.  When it only hit 19.9c .....

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Gavin P
24 July 2015 10:24:39


 


That does sound about right. My latest calculations this evening suggest that the CET for the 10 days from 22 Jul to 31 July will come in at 14.20C. This is exactly the same figure as was recorded for the same 10 days in 1965.


There have been several years before 1965 when the CET for the last 10 days of July was only slightly above 14.2C. But to find a year where the last 10 days of July were lower than 14.2C you have to go back to 1902 when the figure was 13.99C. So we could see the coldest last 10 days of July since 1902.


Looking further back the coldest last 10 days of July since 1772 was 12.95C in 1845.


The CET return today was not too bad at 15.97C. If we just look at the last 9 days of July 2015 could see a CET mean of just 14.00C.


My calculations suggest the CET has fallen below 17C today and is now likely to finish at just 16.1C.


 


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Thanks for confirming then GW!


1965 was about the worst Summer of the whole of the 1960's... (And that's saying something because most of the 60's were terrible Summer's)


Interestingly. there was an El Nino developing that Summer as well...


Let's hope this isn't an omen for a bad August

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
picturesareme
24 July 2015 14:58:52
Currently 14.5C 😱

That's shocking for this time of year! The average overnight low is warmer than this normally.

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