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Global Warming
22 July 2015 22:00:32

Copied across from Quantum's low temperature watch thread



 


That does sound about right. My latest calculations this evening suggest that the CET for the 10 days from 22 Jul to 31 July will come in at 14.20C. This is exactly the same figure as was recorded for the same 10 days in 1965.


There have been several years before 1965 when the CET for the last 10 days of July was only slightly above 14.2C. But to find a year where the last 10 days of July were lower than 14.2C you have to go back to 1902 when the figure was 13.99C. So we could see the coldest last 10 days of July since 1902.


Looking further back the coldest last 10 days of July since 1772 was 12.95C in 1845.


The CET return today was not too bad at 15.97C. If we just look at the last 9 days of July 2015 could see a CET mean of just 14.00C.


My calculations suggest the CET has fallen below 17C today and is now likely to finish at just 16.1C.


 


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

ARTzeman
23 July 2015 11:11:28

Met Office Hadley         17.0c.       Anomaly      1.0c.    Provisional    to 22nd.


Metcheck                        17.7c.       Anomaly        0.71c.


Netweather                     17.67c.     Anomaly        1.18c.


Clevedon   Weather         17.7c.       Anomaly        1.6c.


Mount     Sorrel               17.4c.       Anomaly        1.2c.


My    Mean                      17.9c.      Anomaly         0.9c.


     





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2015 21:44:24

 



That does sound about right. My latest calculations this evening suggest that the CET for the 10 days from 22 Jul to 31 July will come in at 14.20C. This is exactly the same figure as was recorded for the same 10 days in 1965.


There have been several years before 1965 when the CET for the last 10 days of July was only slightly above 14.2C. But to find a year where the last 10 days of July were lower than 14.2C you have to go back to 1902 when the figure was 13.99C. So we could see the coldest last 10 days of July since 1902.


Looking further back the coldest last 10 days of July since 1772 was 12.95C in 1845.


The CET return today was not too bad at 15.97C. If we just look at the last 9 days of July 2015 could see a CET mean of just 14.00C.


My calculations suggest the CET has fallen below 17C today and is now likely to finish at just 16.1C. 



Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

    That would even put my very low 16.5c guess too high!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
24 July 2015 06:42:30

Sweating on 16.14.......





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
24 July 2015 08:37:56

14.5C(-0.5C) here now.

North York Moors weather 
Stormchaser
24 July 2015 08:56:30

I guess that wraps it up for 2015 then... there's no way the models can redeem themselves now, with my experiment conclusion being that they are useless 6 times out of 7 


'Predictions' from this point forward will be largely guesswork. Lets see if that fares any better!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
lanky
24 July 2015 10:35:13


I guess that wraps it up for 2015 then... there's no way the models can redeem themselves now, with my experiment conclusion being that they are useless 6 times out of 7 


'Predictions' from this point forward will be largely guesswork. Lets see if that fares any better!


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


They are a good example of the difference between precision and accuracy IMO - the long range models being strong on the first only


Have you tried looking at the 6 week CFS every day - it does complete U-turns on a regular basis and only goes to prove that numerical modelling is worth pretty much Jack after about 7 days


 

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
ARTzeman
24 July 2015 11:12:45

Met Office Hadley         16.9.        Anomaly       0.9c.    Provisional  to 23rd.


Metcheck                        17.09c.       Anomaly        0.63c.


Netweather                     17.09c.       Anomaly        1.08c.


Clevedon Weather            17.7c.        Anomaly         1.06c.


Mount Sorrel                    17.3c.        Anomaly         0.8c.


My Mean                          17.8c.        Anomaly         1.6c.


     





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
lanky
24 July 2015 12:51:57


Met Office Hadley         16.0c.        Anomaly       0.9c.    Provisional  to 23rd.


Metcheck                        17.09c.       Anomaly        0.63c.


Netweather                     17.09c.       Anomaly        1.08c.


Clevedon Weather            17.7c.        Anomaly         1.06c.


Mount Sorrel                    17.3c.        Anomaly         0.8c.


My Mean                          17.8c.        Anomaly         1.6c.


     


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


I think you mean 16.9


Although I would quite like 16.0 for the comp

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
ARTzeman
24 July 2015 13:15:08


 


I think you mean 16.9


Although I would quite like 16.0 for the comp


Originally Posted by: lanky 

   Edit Applied....





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Deep Powder
24 July 2015 20:45:28

Bugger, missed this! I am too late I think? If not can I have 16c please.......happy to take huge penalty.

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 


Double bugger! Looks like my 16c guess could be very close. Serves me right for being late with my prediction; penalty will mean I end up miles out.


 


Oh well, always next month.⚡️☔️🔜

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Global Warming
24 July 2015 21:44:56


 


Double bugger! Looks like my 16c guess could be very close. Serves me right for being late with my prediction; penalty will mean I end up miles out.


 


Oh well, always next month.⚡️☔️🔜


Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 


yes looks like it could be very close. 16.05C is my latest estimate.


You could have moved a long way up the table but the penalty will be painful as Caz knows only too well from earlier in the year.

Global Warming
25 July 2015 10:56:08

Latest calculations suggest the CET will finish at 16.01C. It keeps going down.


The mean CET for the final 10 days of the month is now forecast by my calculations to be just 13.91C. The CET for the final 9 days of the month could be as low as 13.68C.


This would put 2015 in 10th place in the list of the coldest last 9 days of July since records began in 1772.


1812  13.12C
1841  13.19C
1845  13.22C
1816  13.24C
1920  13.31C
1883  13.55C
1860  13.59C
1914  13.62C
1867  13.66C
2015  13.68C EST
1843  13.69C

ARTzeman
25 July 2015 11:38:50

Met Office Hadley       16.7c.       Anomaly      0.7c.    Provisional to 24th.


Metcheck                   16.90c.     Anomaly      0.44c.


Netweather                17.4c.       Anomaly      0.91c.


Clevedon Weather       17.5c.      Anomaly      1.8c.


Mount  Sorrel              17.1c.      Anomaly      0.6c.


My Mean                     17.6c       Anomaly      1.8c.


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2015 17:21:55


yes looks like it could be very close. 16.05C is my latest estimate.


You could have moved a long way up the table but the penalty will be painful as Caz knows only too well from earlier in the year.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Yes indeed that happened to me.  I was top of the table in January and would have stayed there with my excellent February guess if I hadn't gone on holiday and missed the deadline.  Ouch!     I did had a lovely Caribbean holiday though! 


Actually, my holidays do affect my positioning because I was away for the July deadline so I put my guess in early when the weather wasn't too promising.  If I'd guessed at the end of June when the weather was good, I'm sure I'd have gone higher than 16.5c and would have been a lot further out.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Stormchaser
26 July 2015 10:56:23

Typically, a warm up is looking increasingly likely just as the month draws to a close. Odds are that a one-week delay in tropical forcing is what stands between a July finishing near 16.0*C and one finishing somewhere in the 17's.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Hungry Tiger
26 July 2015 11:11:39

I certainly won't be going for a warm one for August.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
26 July 2015 11:12:36

Need to reduce .46c from today's update.......





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
26 July 2015 11:20:45

Met Office Hadley         16.6c.       Anomaly       0.7c.     Provisional to  25th.


Metcheck                     16.78c.     Anomaly       0.32c.


Netweather                  17.3c.      Anomaly        0.81c


Clevedon Weather        17.4c.      Anomaly         1.9c.


Mount Sorrel                17.1c.      Anomaly          0.6c.


My Mean                      17.5c.      Anomaly          1.9c


 


My Annual   10.2c   Difference   4.5c.





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2015 20:24:16

Down to 14.2C here now, which is -0.8C

2011 and 2012 were colder though, at 13.7 and 13.8

North York Moors weather 
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 July 2015 10:25:52


Need to reduce .46c from today's update.......


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Today's figure is about right for me, given that it's likely to be adjusted down but it's looking likely you'll be closer to the mark than I am and you've gone even lower than me! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
27 July 2015 10:26:53

Met Office Hadley         16.5c.         Anomaly        0.5c.    Provisional to 26th,


Metcheck                     16.69c.       Anomaly        0.22c.


Netweather                  17.15c.       Anomaly        0.66c


Clevedon Weather         17.3c.        Anomaly        2.0c.


Mount  Sorrel                17.0c.        Anomaly        0.5c.  


My  Mean                      17.3c.        Anomaly        2.1c.   





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
27 July 2015 21:30:18

Currently my estimate for the July CET remains at 16.01C. However, the figures for each day have moved a bit. We could potentially see sub 13C CET returns on both Wednesday and Thursday. These could be one of the lowest figures on record for those dates.


29th July 2015 CET estimate 12.67C (equal 10th lowest on record since 1772). All time low for 29 July 11.0C


30th July 2015 CET estimate 12.50C (12th lowest on record since 1772). All time low for 30 July 10.6C

Hungry Tiger
27 July 2015 22:06:36


Currently my estimate for the July CET remains at 16.01C. However, the figures for each day have moved a bit. We could potentially see sub 13C CET returns on both Wednesday and Thursday. These could be one of the lowest figures on record for those dates.


29th July 2015 CET estimate 12.67C (equal 10th lowest on record since 1772). All time low for 29 July 11.0C


30th July 2015 CET estimate 12.50C (12th lowest on record since 1772). All time low for 30 July 10.6C


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Phew and what a way to finish the month off. The CET for July 1st was 24.5C and we're looking at finishing the month off no less than 13C or 14C degrees colder than the beginning.


That has to be a record difference in one month by a long way.


If this was repeated in Winter we would be looking at CETS ganging from 10th more at the beginning and about -6C at the end. :-O


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


springsunshine
28 July 2015 07:43:58

Its incredible how the cet has fallen off a cliff this month.The past week has been more like October than July and am beginning to wonder if the summer of 2015 has already ended,it feels like summer lasted a month at best


Today,this morning the wind chill has felt very cold indeed


Its going to take something spectacular now to rescue what is turning out to be one of the most disappointing summers I can remember.

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