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sriram
  • sriram
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 July 2015 19:04:48

yes or no


 


Yes


might have to wait 15 years


Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
David M Porter
30 July 2015 19:14:19

I would say Yes.


10 years ago or so, some people said we wouldn't see another sub-zero CET month in this country again; December 2010 proved them wrong about that big time. So if we could have the coldest month for almost 25 years, which came only a year after the coldest overall winter for about 30 years, I don't see why we can't have another wintry spell like January '87 or February '91 again.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
sriram
  • sriram
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 July 2015 19:53:26
Let's hope so

As the last few winters have been absolute pants
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
idj20
30 July 2015 20:13:04

As long as we don't get to experience another Oct 15th '87, that's all I'm saying.


Folkestone Harbour. 
LeedsLad123
30 July 2015 20:22:15

Probably - but February 1986 was much more impressive and one of the coldest months of the 20th century. Some areas had sub-freezing average highs.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 July 2015 20:31:52

Who wants '87 (which lasted a couple of weeks in the south) or '91 (which I didn't even notice) when you could have '63 or '47?


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
David M Porter
30 July 2015 20:37:22


As long as we don't get to experience another Oct 15th '87, that's all I'm saying.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


I seriously doubt there is anyone out there that wants to see a storm like that again, especially those people that were severely affected by it. Also worth remembering that it cost almost 20 people their lives, if I'm not mistaken.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
schmee
30 July 2015 20:39:25
Good question imho. I recall a similar question pre Jan 2009 and all seemed doubtful. Then 2009-2010 happened and locally we had the largest snowfall since the 1960's . This winter will be a mini ice age 😉
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Zubzero
30 July 2015 20:55:54

Id take a December 2010 to imby.


 


Sure there will be. And there will be better Winter months that will surpass 87/91 


 


Just a question when it will happen.

picturesareme
30 July 2015 21:01:06
It's inevitable that some time in the future the UK will experience a winter more severe then that of 62-63⛄️❄️
Hungry Tiger
30 July 2015 21:50:42

Yes - and December 2010 was in a class of its own - It really was.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


nsrobins
30 July 2015 22:22:20

If one of the options is 'there is actually no way to predict the probability of such events outside of the remit of the more reliable models at 6-10 days lead time' then fine. Otherwise I have no sensible comment to make cool


 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Quantum
31 July 2015 00:25:05

Cmon guys its July! Get it together until at least October!



2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Retron
31 July 2015 04:53:28

Of course it'll happen again, but nobody can say when. Hopefully I'll still be alive to see the next time!

That said, since the 90s there's been a real decline in snow events and that has to be tied to something - I know not what, though. The last time we had 8 inches of snow on the ground, for example, was 1995 - the same time as we had enough snow for icicles.* 1997 was the last time we had a high of -1C or lower. (FWIW, there were 5 winters in the 80s with ice days, 3 winters in the 90s, none at all in the 00s and one so far in the 10s.)

2010 was especially disappointing as although it was cold and yes, there were the first ice days in over a decade, they were barely below freezing... and we only had two dollops of snow, neither of which lasted more than a handful of days. Compared to what was going on north and west of London it was most underwhelming!

2005 was the last proper easterly down here, we're really overdue one.


 


* Some might say that due to people having better insulation etc icicles are less likely. That's not the case IMBY, though, as my house has exactly the same insulation (or lack of it) as it had in the 80s!


Leysdown, north Kent
Essan
31 July 2015 05:41:51

Depends.   Is time travel possible?  And if so, will we discover it in our lifetimes? 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
sriram
  • sriram
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
31 July 2015 07:16:45
Interesting to see if the expert himself Gavin Partridge has any thoughts on this
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
Sevendust
31 July 2015 08:25:08

How can you have a question like that when Dec 2010 was probably as severe? Seems to answer itself

doctormog
31 July 2015 08:30:28


How can you have a question like that when Dec 2010 was probably as severe? Seems to answer itself


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Indeed, although having checked the calendar I think yes and in 71 and a half and 75 and a half years time would probably be the only definitely correct answer. 


Gavin P
31 July 2015 09:13:16

YES...Of course!



Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
LeedsLad123
31 July 2015 09:22:20

It's interesting to compare different experiences.

The frequency of snowfall has obviously decreased, and temperatures have steadily increased in winter - more so than summer. The 1961-1990 period was quite chilly (1963, 1979, 1981, 1986, 1987 - anyone surprised?), and both 30-year periods since then have been milder than the one before.

However, we've had a decent number of snowfall events here. We had 10 inches in January 2013, and a similar amount in March 2013. About 6-7 inches in Feb-Mar 2005. Around a foot in Nov-Dec 2010. 6 inches in February 2009, 7-8 inches in January 2010. 6 inches in December 2009. And a lot of smaller snowfalls.

However, our largest single snowfall on record, from what I can gather, was 40cm in January 1995, and that hasn't been approached since - not even close.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
some faraway beach
31 July 2015 09:28:05
I do remember the cold of Jan. 1987 and the snowfields of Feb. 1991 well, but neither made anything like the impression on me that Dec. 2010 did.

Three-foot icicles, a foot of snow and properly cut off 5 miles south of Taunton (sorry, retron), but more importantly the fact that it all happened around the solstice. The eerie blue light around dawn and dusk during the shortest days was unique for me. A genuinely Arctic landscape.
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Retron
31 July 2015 09:43:56


How can you have a question like that when Dec 2010 was probably as severe? Seems to answer itself


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


In the West Midlands (and Hampshire Alps) no doubt, but down here:


1987 - daytime high of -8C, 15 ice days, 30 foot snow drifts, >2 feet level snow, cut off for a week and bread and milk delivered by Chinook


1991 - over a week of ice days, over a foot of level powdery snow, daytime high of -5C.


2010 - 5 ice days (daytime high of -0.4C being the coldest), 7 inches of wet snow (which lasted 2 days before melting) and another 3 inches of snow on the 21st (which lasted 2 days as well - although there was a small remnant around for Christmas Day).


(Then again - we had a wonderful 2-week period with snow on the ground here during 2005, while others missed out - it's all swings and roundabouts!)


Leysdown, north Kent
Sevendust
31 July 2015 10:30:33


 In the West Midlands (and Hampshire Alps) no doubt, but down here:


1987 - daytime high of -8C, 15 ice days, 30 foot snow drifts, >2 feet level snow, cut off for a week and bread and milk delivered by Chinook


1991 - over a week of ice days, over a foot of level powdery snow, daytime high of -5C.


2010 - 5 ice days (daytime high of -0.4C being the coldest), 7 inches of wet snow (which lasted 2 days before melting) and another 3 inches of snow on the 21st (which lasted 2 days as well - although there was a small remnant around for Christmas Day).


(Then again - we had a wonderful 2-week period with snow on the ground here during 2005, while others missed out - it's all swings and roundabouts!)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


I could have included the spell from mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 which saw some incredible snowfall locally 


 

SEMerc
31 July 2015 10:51:35


 


I could have included the spell from mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 which saw some incredible snowfall locally 


 


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Yep, Reading was in the sweet spot for that. I had almost 40cm (from one single fall) where I am.

picturesareme
31 July 2015 12:35:56


How can you have a question like that when Dec 2010 was probably as severe? Seems to answer itself


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


2010 was an amazing 36 hour wonder down here. 


5-6 inch of powder fell overnight, and a top temp the following day of -2.5C. The thaw set in the following night and that was it.

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