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Global Warming
01 August 2015 10:27:24

The official maximum CET on 1 July was 32.7C. This is the third highest reading for any day in July since records began in 1878. The top 3 are well above any other July day.


31 July was the 5th lowest minimum CET on record for July.


What a contrast to start and finish the month. I doubt that has ever happened before.


Highest maximum CET in July


3 July 1976     33.2C
19 July 2006   32.9C
1 July 2015     32.7C
2 July 1976     31.8C


Lowest minimum CET in July


4 July 1965      4.7C
11 July 1888    5.1C
12 July 1902    5.1C
8 July 1929      5.2C
31 July 2015    5.4C
7 July 1954      5.5C

Global Warming
01 August 2015 10:31:17


That is the link to the estimated data and only goes to the 30th. The final figure in the estimated data series is 16.07C and can be found here


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2015


The link I posted is to the final official data. There was a downward adjustment of 0.16C from 16.07C to 15.91C.

Hungry Tiger
01 August 2015 10:33:10


The official maximum CET on 1 July was 32.7C. This is the third highest reading for any day in July since records began in 1878. The top 3 are well above any other July day.


31 July was the 5th lowest minimum CET on record for July.


What a contrast to start and finish the month. I doubt that has ever happened before.


Highest maximum CET in July


3 July 1976     33.2C
19 July 2006   32.9C
1 July 2015     32.7C
2 July 1976     31.8C


Lowest minimum CET in July


4 July 1965      4.7C
11 July 1888    5.1C
12 July 1902    5.1C
8 July 1929      5.2C
31 July 2015    5.4C
7 July 1954      5.5C


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


And I'll just add this - those figures there for the lowest CET minimums - some of those summers were downright dire.


The July CET for 1965 was 14.0C  The warmest summer month for the summer of 1965 was August with a CET of 14.9C


July CET for 1954 was 14.2C and the warmest summer month was August with a CET of just 14.6C.


 


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Global Warming
01 August 2015 10:40:51

We have not had much luck with mean temperatures generally in July and August in the past 10 years. Apart from July 2013 and 2014 the rest have been either close to average or poor.


6 of the last 9 July's have been below the 1971-2000 average of 16.5C with CETs of 16.2C or less.


6 of the last 9 August's have been below the 1971-2000 average of 16.2C. No August has reached 17C since 2004.

Global Warming
01 August 2015 10:44:33


 


And I'll just add this - those figures there for the lowest CET minimums - some of those summers were downright dire.


The July CET for 1965 was 14.0C  The warmest summer month for the summer of 1965 was August with a CET of 14.9C


July CET for 1954 was 14.2C and the warmest summer month was August with a CET of just 14.6C.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Good point - they were all shockers. All below 15C


1965 summer CET 14.5C
1888 summer CET 13.7C
1902 summer CET 14.3C
1929 summer CET 14.9C
1954 summer CET 14.1C


1971-2000 summer CET 15.6C


Hopefully this year we will just about get above 15C but not by much.

Global Warming
01 August 2015 10:58:02


 


Do the max/min series go back as far as the main CET? I'm surprised not to see any dates before 1888 in the minimum series, given that the CET goes back to the 1600s, so assume that that's only for mean temperatures?


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Darren - no the max and min series only go back to 1878

Global Warming
01 August 2015 11:01:26

List below of the coldest last 9 days of July on record for the mean CET series - July 2015 comes in at number 7. Coldest end to July since 1920. This data goes back to 1772.


1845  12.69C
1841  13.18C
1867  13.18C
1812  13.20C
1816  13.24C
1920  13.31C
2015  13.54C

Global Warming
01 August 2015 11:13:56

The maximum CET of only 15.5C on 24 July 2015 just makes it into the coldest 100 July daily maximums on record since 1878.


That maximum on the 24th was 9.1C below the mean on the 1st and 17.2C below the maximum on the 1st

Stormchaser
01 August 2015 11:16:05

Finished unusually far above the CET mean here, at 16.69*C.


Reflects the NW/SE divide that dominated much of the month.


Rainfall finished at 74.6 mm which is 184.2% of the LTA (and about 2/3 of that fell across two days... on one of those days in the space of a few hours!).


Sunshine just about escaped the sub-200 hour 'class of shame', with the final 203.2 hour figure 20 hours short of the LTA.


 


July 2015 goes down in history as the month that caused me to finally lose all faith in current attempts at long range forecasting for the UK.


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Keep Calm and Forecast On
Global Warming
01 August 2015 11:20:53

Here are the charts for July



 

Global Warming
01 August 2015 11:42:53

Here is an interesting blog post from the Met Office on the 1 July heat


http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/07/07/on-the-record-observing-a-heatwave/


They have now published a more detailed post here which also includes some interesting historical perspectives


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/july2015


One point worth noting is that the temperature of 32.5C recorded at Heathrow at 0900z on 1 July is now the highest UK night-time (21z to 09z) maximum temperature on record. This means the highest night-time temperature is now only 6C lower than the highest UK day-time (09z to 21Z) maximum temperature of 38.5C!!

lanky
01 August 2015 11:44:34


Final official July CET from Hadley is 15.91C


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015


So everyone was too high in the CET competition although lanky was the closest with 16.00C (along with Deep Powder although he gets less credit as his prediction was posted late after the initial heatwave started to abate).


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


I caught a lucky break I think. I had to put my best guess in on 16th June due to holidays and well before the mini heat wave started. At that time a cool July looked on the cards more so than at the end of June


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Gavin P
01 August 2015 14:31:04


Here are the charts for July



 


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Thanks GW!


Those graph's are pretty shocking!


Is it OK if I use one of these at the start of my August month ahead forecast video tomorrow?


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Global Warming
01 August 2015 15:02:20


 


Thanks GW!


Those graph's are pretty shocking!


Is it OK if I use one of these at the start of my August month ahead forecast video tomorrow?


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Yes absolutely fine Gavin. I am happy for you to use the charts whenever you want. No need to ask.

Gavin P
01 August 2015 17:25:22


 


Yes absolutely fine Gavin. I am happy for you to use the charts whenever you want. No need to ask.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


That's very kind.


Thanks my friend.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2015 20:12:48

Some great facts and figures from you once again GW. Many thanks! 


Another month of surprises and record breakers too.  When I came back off holiday and saw how low down on the table I was with 16.5c, I thought I must have pitched way too low but it turns out I was too high.  Don't you just love the British weather!!!! 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Global Warming
02 August 2015 15:11:00

Annual CET competition - July update


So another month rolls around and we have some very significant changes to the tables this month as most people were way out with their July predictions. But a few got very close.


As previously advertised Deep Powder missed out on taking the lead due to a large penalty for a late prediction but still ended up only 0.02C behind last month's leader Hungry Tiger.


We maintain the record of having a new leader every month this year though as lanky moves up an incredible 19 places this month after predicting exactly 16C.


There are a number of other big climbers in the top 10 this month. ARTzeman moves up 24 places into 4th and Caz moves back into the top 10 climbing 16 places.


Plenty of other big climbers elsewhere in the table as well as some big fallers. Just shows that even if you are quite a long way behind things can change very quickly even in just one month.


ARTzeman
02 August 2015 15:51:32

Thank you GW.   Duly saved... Nice to be in a different position.. Looking for similar this August  eve if it is 4th from bottom...






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Dougie
02 August 2015 17:39:14

Thanks for the tables GW. 


Ha'way the lads
Gavin P
02 August 2015 18:20:36

Thanks GW!


Wasn't expecting to go up 13 places!


Congrats to Lanky.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
lanky
02 August 2015 18:38:43


Thanks GW!


Wasn't expecting to go up 13 places!


Congrats to Lanky.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Thanks Gav and thanks GW  - I have to say I was a bit gobsmacked when I saw the new league table


As they say.. one day everyone will be famous for 15 minutes


 


 


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 August 2015 20:44:59

Many thanks GW and congrats to Lanky.


It's nice to be back up in the top ten but it won't last!  Once the vertigo kicks in I'll be sliding back down the table.     I was lucky to have put in my prediction very early due to holidays, so I wasn't here at the end of June to be influenced by the heat wave.


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Chunky Pea
03 August 2015 12:44:03
According the BBC NI just there, it was the coldest July in Norn Iron since 1993.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Snow Hoper
03 August 2015 16:07:51

Thanks GW.


 


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Global Warming
03 August 2015 18:05:46

According the BBC NI just there, it was the coldest July in Norn Iron since 1993.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


i can believe that. The temperature anomaly for NI was the highest in the UK at -1.3C.

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