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Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 August 2015 12:43:53

Hi all,


Here's the week ahead forecast video:


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html


Here's the Written Thoughts:


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html


Grim up north, good down south basically sum's it up methinks! The very "unfair" Summer of 2015 continues...


I've got Terry Scholey's August month ahead forecast coming up tonight around 7pm. Will post the link here, so keep a look out for that!


Tomorrow we're doing CANSIPS Sunday + GWV August forecast.


Keep checking back for all the updates.


Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and you know who!


Edit: Here's Terry Scholey's August Forecast http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html


Edit 2: Here's Sunday's CANSIPS update: http://www.gavsweathervids.com


 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Sevendust
01 August 2015 13:14:21

Cheers Gav


Interesting about Thursday - Hadn't really factored in a second swipe of heat on that day but good to here.


I'm off to Devon next weekend but it's looking a bit unsettled unfortunately

Solar Cycles
01 August 2015 15:24:13


Hi all,


Here's the week ahead forecast video:


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/


Here's the Written Thoughts:


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html


Grim up north, good down south basically sum's it up methinks! The very "unfair" Summer of 2015 continues...


I've got Terry Scholey's August month ahead forecast coming up tonight around 7pm. Will post the link here, so keep a look out for that!


Tomorrow we're doing CANSIPS Sunday + GWV August forecast.


Keep checking back for all the updates.


Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and you know who!


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

It's been utter tosh up here since the blip off an heatwave at the beginning of July. More of the same to come me thinks.

Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 August 2015 18:02:06

^^^^^


Thanks both 


Here's Terry Scholey's August Forecast



Summer 2015 to end on a flourish or a damp squib?


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Solar Cycles
01 August 2015 18:10:30


^^^^^


Thanks both 


Here's Terry Scholey's August Forecast



Summer 2015 to end on a flourish or a damp squib?


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

As we move into September I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see something more akin to summery weather, a nice warm early Autumn perhaps.

sizzle
01 August 2015 18:20:05

thanks terry scholey for your forecasts I look forward to them twice a month, and as always thanks for sharing them gavin, looking like a nice fresher month ahead, tho another hot spell wont surprise me as we head into September tho them old night will be drawing in by then, that's when I know winter is on the far horizen 

Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 August 2015 18:38:47

Thanks Siz and SC.


As long as September isn't as quiet as last year I'll be relieved (I literally ran out of things to talk about in my Vid's in the end!   )


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Solar Cycles
01 August 2015 19:10:02


thanks terry scholey for your forecasts I look forward to them twice a month, and as always thanks for sharing them gavin, looking like a nice fresher month ahead, tho another hot spell wont surprise me as we head into September tho them old night will be drawing in by then, that's when I know winter is on the far horizen 


Originally Posted by: sizzle 

He's uncannily accurate as well, much to my annoyance cometh the winter months.

Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 August 2015 19:27:44


He's uncannily accurate as well, much to my annoyance cometh the winter months.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Terry's summer forecast  has been exceptionally good, IMO!


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 August 2015 09:12:59

Morning all;


Here's today's first video update;


CANSIPS Sunday;



We extend out through Winter with this update but Just For Fun.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Solar Cycles
02 August 2015 11:50:32


Morning all;


Here's today's first video update;


CANSIPS Sunday;



We extend out through Winter with this update but Just For Fun.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Interesting update lets hope the synoptic pattern looks something similar cometh the hour.

Gooner
02 August 2015 12:42:27

Cheers Gav


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 August 2015 13:11:01


Interesting update lets hope the synoptic pattern looks something similar cometh the hour.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Are you suggesting CANSIPS might not be all that reliable?  Really? 


Here's today's last update:


The August Month Ahead Forecast: 



Models gone very cool do we believe them? Not sure I do...


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
ARTzeman
02 August 2015 13:54:44

Thank you Gavin..    Never mind the showers... Keep any frost away...






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
lanky
02 August 2015 14:25:33


Morning all;


Here's today's first video update;


CANSIPS Sunday;



We extend out through Winter with this update but Just For Fun.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Thanks Gav - first look at your 2015-16 winter forecast v1.0


Looked pretty stormy and mild to me on those charts bit like 2013-14 but hopefully not so extreme


I had the same problem as you did with the Feb 2016 chart. You pointed to HP to the north with a cold easterly implied but the temp chart showed mild.


I revisited that chart myself in CANSIPS to have another look and it looks to me as though you have to be very careful with them. I think they are trying to show MSLP and MSLP anomalies on the same graphic. So the isobars are showing the MSLP and the pink / blue colours are showing the high / low anomalies


On that Feb 2016 chart they had LP to the north (not HP) but as it wasn't as deep as average in that position so it showed up as a pink(HP) anomaly - confusing !!


Take another look



 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 August 2015 14:40:31


 


Thanks Gav - first look at your 2015-16 winter forecast v1.0


Looked pretty stormy and mild to me on those charts bit like 2012-13 but hopefully not so extreme


I had the same problem as you did with the Feb 2016 chart. You pointed to HP to the north with a cold easterly implied but the temp chart showed mild.


I revisited that chart myself in CANSIPS to have another look and it looks to me as though you have to be very careful with them. I think they are trying to show MSLP and MSLP anomalies on the same graphic. So the isobars are showing the MSLP and the pink / blue colours are showing the high / low anomalies


On that Feb 2016 chart they had LP to the north (not HP) but as it wasn't as deep as average in that position so it showed up as a pink(HP) anomaly - confusing !!


Take another look



 


Originally Posted by: lanky 


Hi Lanky.


Good points. Maybe I need to have a more in-depth look at this one or just concentrate on temp and preciptation anomalies until I'm more comfortable with them?


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

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