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13 August 2015 16:52:17

creeping towards Folkestone and Dover now

Originally Posted by: colin46 


It's a lively bit of rain, that's for sure - cells are popping up as it moves slowly NW'wards...


Leysdown, north Kent
Weathermac
13 August 2015 17:13:13
Just seems like nothing west of London and the se event to me there is nothing at all showing on the radar that would affect the Midlands. It doesn't feel humid here it's quite cool and breezy . Not the best forecast from the met boys for my region .
idj20
13 August 2015 17:20:25

Growling away with the occasional distant flash and it's starting to rain but not as heavy as it was this morning. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Jive Buddy
13 August 2015 17:43:23

!"££$ me!! Just off to my NNE (ish), suddenly exploded into constant thunder as non-stop lightning!


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
nouska
13 August 2015 17:44:23


 


 


I don't think that version of the model is initialised properly - there's often no sign of the data assimilation that would match up the starting point with actual observations.


A waste of potential IMO... as it's the only place I know of where you can see hourly charts.


In other news, there's some clearer skies coming up from the S/SE that could allow temps to jump up a bit to the low 20's for CS England, perhaps nudging the mid-20's for the SE... they could see both the most rain and the highest temps today. You lose a little, you win a little (or vice versa IMBY).


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


Another source of hourly charts and it has performed well today.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?map=330


Current time from the 12Z.


colin46
13 August 2015 17:46:43
lots of activity around the Margate area now
shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
Jive Buddy
13 August 2015 17:48:38

It's turned indcredible here!. What a show we're getting. Shame it's not a few hours later. It's now been rumbling non-stop for around 10 mins. Sounds like a holwing wind to begin with, then you realise it's just incessant thunder. Awesome storm!


The sferics chart must be lit up like a Xmas tree


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Jive Buddy
13 August 2015 17:49:51

lots of activity around the Margate area now

Originally Posted by: colin46 


Yup! I'm right underneath it


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Jive Buddy
13 August 2015 17:52:40

Most of the flashes seem to be in the clouds so far, but one was visible just under the cloud base a few secs ago - it was almost a perfect circle of lightning


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2015 17:57:19
Looking great there Jive on the radar!
Charmhills
13 August 2015 17:59:12


Most of the flashes seem to be in the clouds so far, but one was visible just under the cloud base a few secs ago - it was almost a perfect circle of lightning


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


Will have to call you CharmBuddyHills at this rate.


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KevBrads1
13 August 2015 18:12:16
Sky looks very threatening at Antwerp

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Jive Buddy
13 August 2015 18:21:03


 


Will have to call you CharmBuddyHills at this rate.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 



Just after I typed that last, the real "Charmhills style" tropical monsoon rain arrived....but the thunder and lightning almost instantaneously ceased! Now back to just heavy rain, with the occassional thunderstormlite type flash and distant bang.


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
stophe
13 August 2015 18:29:34
Thunderstorm at Stevenage now from the little cell ahead of the main event.
Arcus
13 August 2015 18:30:04
Looks like some homegrowns might be sparking up north of London.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
13 August 2015 19:00:31


 


Will have to call you CharmBuddyHills at this rate.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


I dare say you will be enjoying some of the thundery stuff soon, looking at the radar 


Malcolm UserPostedImage
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE
idj20
13 August 2015 19:07:58
Incidentally, the sky here at Folkestone still has that ominous thundery-look about it, I'm not quite ready to call time on this but I'm relying on good ol' fashioned gut instincts rather than looking at the radars. A bit like when Luke Skywalker turned off the computer controls in his TIE fighter and turned to feeling the force.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Stormchaser
13 August 2015 19:26:02

Good spot Nouska - I was referring to NMM hourly charts, but in fact I'd never noticed that APPEGE model... another one to goggle at


 


Struggling to see the evening storms Southampton eastward that the BBC forecasts were full of this evening... seems nothing is able to survive crossing the central parts of The Channel! 


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Arcus
13 August 2015 19:44:09


Good spot Nouska - I was referring to NMM hourly charts, but in fact I'd never noticed that APPEGE model... another one to goggle at


 


Struggling to see the evening storms Southampton eastward that the BBC forecasts were full of this evening... seems nothing is able to survive crossing the central parts of The Channel! 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


To be fair the BBC forecast had a caveat rider of "Don't take this too literally" as Hammond was pointing at the green and yellow blobs approaching the central south coast overnight! 


Trouble is they can't create a nowcast animation based on what is clearly happening now. There's a large area of very heavy rainfall (but not much sferic activity now) feeding into Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk and thence into the East Midlands and all points NW. Chances are that the Sussex coast won't see much more rain (a relief for them, no doubt). 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Elstevio
13 August 2015 19:47:19
Think our August draught will soon be over by the looks of it! Our 0.6mm MTD will change imminently if the radar tracking is right.
Aylsham, North Norfolk
LeedsLad123
13 August 2015 19:59:26
There is very little CAPE knocking around so I'm surprised to see storms developing in Cambridgeshire.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Arcus
13 August 2015 20:06:34

There is very little CAPE knocking around so I'm surprised to see storms developing in Cambridgeshire.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Not much going on there now. A rainmaker in the main from now on I suspect.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Jiries
13 August 2015 22:07:39


Good spot Nouska - I was referring to NMM hourly charts, but in fact I'd never noticed that APPEGE model... another one to goggle at


 


Struggling to see the evening storms Southampton eastward that the BBC forecasts were full of this evening... seems nothing is able to survive crossing the central parts of The Channel! 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Can't get any storms without few days of hot weather first and it had failed big time today with 17C 850's uppers failed to deliver low 30's temps.  This is the modern summer which may become frequent with very high uppers but alas with dull, very cool surface temps and wet weather would be a concern if this going to be replace the typical Spanish plume that usually bring up to 1 week of warm sunny weather then followed by 3 days of more hotter temps and a thunderstorms.

Zubzero
13 August 2015 22:14:00


 


Not much going on there now. A rainmaker in the main from now on I suspect.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


I see a few flash's to the west from the homegrown storms.


Your right! Any electrical activity soon died out now just thundery rain  


 


 

peeps in west oxon
13 August 2015 23:50:48
Pouring down here in W Oxon, first real rain we have had all day, in fact, for weeks....
West Oxfordshire, 80M ASL

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