Hello folks,

Here's week ahead forecast video

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the Written Thoughts 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

A straight forward week of high pressure to ease me back in following my break. 

Will have the first update for Winter 15/16 on the website tomorrow. 

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods also!

Edit: Here's the first winter 2016 update: http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Cheers as always, the longer this set up eats into Autumn proper, the better.

Thanks Gavin

Current estimate for the CET for the first 7 days of September is 12.53C. This is 2.36C below the 1971-2000 mean.

A cold start to September is actually quite a common occurrence. The last few times we saw something similar were:

CET 1-7 Sept

1992 12.59C
1986 12.73C
1985 12.56C

The last time the first 7 days of September gave a CET return below 12.5C was 1965 with 11.97C. So 2015 could see the coldest first week of September for 50 years.

As it happens 1965 was a strong El Nino year. The running 3 month ONI mean in August was 1.0 and it climbed to 1.8 by December. For 2015 the three month ONI mean in August is 1.2. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

The August ONI running mean has only been higher than 1.2 twice since records began in 1950. It was 1.4 in both 1987 and 1997.

Thank you Gavin. Waiting to see what befalls after 10 days...

thanaks gav, roll on some decent weather like snow cold frost rain wind gales storms, loll cheers buddy

Thanks Gavin. Nicely straightforward. 

Thanks guys! 

Very interesting stats GW - So not that unusual to have a cool opening to September, but hasn't happened much in past couple of decades? 

Interesting that the years mentioned are all cold AMO years, like the cold Atlantic we have the moment?

Here we go then: First Winter 2016 Update;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looking at things like El Nino and solar.

We focus on last years "in thing" the "OPI" at the end. Going more or less back to where we ended with last Winters updates.

Will add it to the Winter forecast page with written summary later.

The first Winter 2016 update was released @ GWV today.

The video has now been added to Winter forecasts & Updates page with a extensive written summary if you can't watch the video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2015-16-forecast-uk.php

Informative as always! Thanks Gavin.