ECM and UKMO have suddenly decided to start bringing a better defined LP down from the NW early next week, increasing the duration of unsettled conditions once they return on Monday. They must have caught wind of the Met Office 6-15 update and its talk of settled weather. 

GFS shunts the low far enough south for a warm, sometimes showery but often dry regime to dominate all of lower-res (days 10-16), with temps hitting the high teens widely across England and exceeding 20*C on most days in the far south. Impressive for late September and the start of October (unless you compare it with 2011's phenomenal effort...), but lacking in support from ECM and with UKMO looking unlikely to sit in that boat either.

In fact ECM keeps on firing the jet SE from the Atlantic rather than turning it the NE as GFS does. The result for day 9:

...which suggests a slow moving frontal boundary, very wet for some parts but how far east the boundary gets is not clear. Not that it matters - it's the general theme that I'm interested in. A huge amount of blocking, with the jet wandering like a drunken student after a long night in the clubs. GFS is a variant on that theme in which we have a cut-off low trough to the south, without reinforcements from the Atlantic, for an unusually long time. On this basis it's the less likely outcome, but still entirely plausible.

Just for fun, today's 12z GFS ensembles are the first ones of the "season" that show a snow probability peak (albeit 5% at day 5 million) for this location 

http://meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 17TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A slack and showery Westerly airflow will cover the UK today and tomorrow with a ridge of High pressure approaching the West of the UK later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less unsettled next week with longer drier spells with most rainfall likely in the form of scattered showers.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a ridge of High pressure approaching Western Britain over the coming days changing the orientation of the Jet Stream from South of the UK to the North for a while.Then a new trough slips it back South across the UK for a time but overall though details are sketchy the flow looks like remaining more to the North of the UK over week 2 probably enhancing the theme of dry weather across the South of the UK at least.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a ridge of High pressure settling things down across the UK at this weekend before a trough returns cloud and some rain for a time early next week. This is then shown to be the precursor to a more North/South split in the weather with the North seeing breezy and changeable weather next week while the South becomes largely dry and fine under a ridge from the SW. This ridge is then shown to intensify exerting it's influence to all other areas with fine and dry weather with mist and fog at night. Then the theme at the end of the run is to push this ridge to the East of the UK where it draws some rather warm air NW over the UK while maintaining fine and dry weather for most.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is nothink like as High pressure based as the operational bringing down Low pressure across the UK next week where it hangs on across the South for quite a while gradually being reinforced from the Atlantic by other weakish Low pressure ensuring that after a dry weekend the rest of the run looks changeable with some dry and bright weather mixed with cloudier and more unsettled periods with rain or showers at times, probably most enhanced towards the South than elsewhere.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show no set pattern likely by two weeks with equal options shown between Low pressure based conditions with showers or rain and rather drier weather under higher pressure.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a High pressure ridge at the weekend collapsing as shallow Low pressure slips SE across the UK in the first days of next week. After a dry weekend some rain on a trough will introduce a showery period next week but with light winds and some sunshine in between daytime conditions shouldn't feel too bad with mist and fog though a probability under any clearing skies after dark.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex troughs slipping down across the UK on the Western flank of yesterdays depression introducing a simplified weather pattern of a ridge moving across the UK from the West with a dry and fine weekend before further troughs approach the West by Monday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows a fine weekend as a ridge moves across from the West. This is shown to collapse early next week as Low pressure sinks SE across the UK with some rain or showers for all. Later in the week the Low responsible is reluctant to leave our near continental neighbours and continues to exert a showery influence to the South and East with the best weather likely over Scotland and Northern Ireland as another ridge builds in.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the weekend ridge giving way to a trough early next week with some rain for all before another ridge links across Central parts of the UK with the South slowly becoming dry and fine while fronts on Westerly winds over the far North bring the risk of rain at times here later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning follows the theme of Low pressure moving SE across the UK early next week with two or three days of changeable conditions with some rain or showers for most before a trend for things to quieten down slowly later in the period culminating in a very pleasant picture by Day 10 as High pressure builds across England and Wales with dry and fine early Autumn conditions for many with the whole of the UK likely to be dry at that stage.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates to me that there is a good chance of High pressure lying close to England and Wales with a lot of fine and dry early Autumn weather here while any fronts from off the Atlantic become restricted to affecting the far North only by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are still undecided on whether next week's slip back under Low pressure is just a short blip before fine and settled weather returns to most of the UK thereafter or not.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.5 pts with UKMO at 96.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM is king at 86.3 pts followed by UKMO at 86.2 and GFS at 84.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.4 pts over GFS's 51.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.0 pts to 33.5 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

MY THOUGHTS There are tentative signs that the UK may come more under the influence of High pressure later next week. It is yet to be decided in what shape or form that may take as only ECM offers a UK based anticyclone across our shores and this is shown at Day 10 so a lot of scope for error in that chart. The genral theme though is slowly straightening out as yesterday's Low has now made it's exit East and NE away from the UK. A strong ridge looks like producing a decent weekend for most if not all as the last of the coming few day's of showers finally clear the East late tomorrow. It then looks like 48hrs of decent fine and settled early Autumn weather with some chilly and misty nights is likely before a trough moves in from the West late Sunday and more significantly on Monday. This then brings rain followed by a scattering of showers as weakish Low pressure slips SE across the UK towards NW Europe. Once arriving there some output shows that it gets held up later next week and continues to affect the South and East with further showers while other output shows it clearing away and the South coming under a ridge while the North becomes at greatest risk of a little rain from troughs crossing close by to the North. Whichever way the dice falls High pressure should play some sort of role in what happens through Week 2. I particularly like the ECM evolutions as it shows a full scale move towards High pressure sitting across the UK in the second week and this is largely backed up by it's ensembles. It's harder to see where UKMO is heading but my betting would be similar to ECM. GFS shows a decent operational while the control is less favourable with the clusters a complete mess this morning so not much useful guidance there. So putting all this together while I cannot see a prolonged dry spell UK wide, certainly not in the short term I think with time many places will see much more dry weather than wet and some pleasant sunshine by day could lead to chilly and very misty nights at times, slow to clear in the morning's dragging the overall mean temperature down to probably just below the seasonal average for mid to late September. Still with no major atlantic storms looking likely across the UK over the next two weeks I think most perople will accept this morning's output with open arms because it could be an awful lot worse.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

The best chart of the day today goes to ECM with a peach of a 240hr chart showing High pressure in excess of 1030mbs lying across England and Wales with fine and dry early Autumn weather for most if not all of the UK.

WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0

For the worst chart I have gone for the Day 15 chart from the GFS Control run which illustrates aLow mobving in across the UK from the West bringing rain and showers for all. What's significant with this chart is that pressure is High across the Arctic stretching from Scandinavia to Greenland pushing all rain bearing Atlantic Lows and fronts on a collision course with the UK. Thankfully it is 15 days away and unlikely to verify.

Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 18th 2015

I certainly accept the given charts with open arms. There again, like death & taxes do we really have any choice in the matter?

Just need a clear night  27th September and into the early morning of  the 28th September for the eclipse.   ,..... 

A sign of things to come I suspect, until 1st December that is . You can see things taking shape on the ECM 240 hours this morning.

Time is not on my side again this morning so here's a link to my website for the morning report. No report tomorrow too busy so be back on Sunday.

 http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

This morning run look truly amazing easterly blast which it very wrong timing to come but at least it looking prolonged settled and dry than wet side but cooler temps wise.

The runaway heat in Toronto continues which seem to keep UK in a unwelcome cool September, that normally happen if Toronto have relentless mild weather in winter we get the cold here like in 1996-97 Xmas when it was nearly subzero here every day and Toronto was around 5-10C maxes. UK only get real cold when East USA and Canada are mild.

My pessimistic nature makes we inclined towards a 'if only it was January' feelling for such charts. 

Quite. With the suspicion that, in January, we'll be looking at charts thinking "if only it was July"

I'm enjoying the strengthening signal for more settled weather Later in September and into October.

If we do get strong high pressure sat over the UK, then its orientation and latitude will obviously be key to how warm we can get in the daytime but chilly nights may become a theme. 

Either my memory's really knackered, or you've changed from being a fan of cold/snowy spells.

I feel the same. I love snow but I would prefer winter to be 6/8 weeks of cold snowy weather, Spring and Autumn to be brief and Summer to be warm and sunny for a good 6 months.

The usual reality is we get 2/4 weeks of spring, 0/2 weeks of summer, 10/11 MONTHS of Autumn and 0/2 weeks of winter. 

People say our weather is interesting in that it is very changeable, I say it monotonous in that it is very changeable. 

Thanks for clarifying! 

My thoughts aren't too dissimilar to Muckyme's, although I quite like autumn & spring (just not 11 months of them!).

I guess I just want defined seasons. Surely not too much to ask?  

I would go one further and say that various weather types that occur with the said changeability usually prove to be uninteresting and uninspiring in equal measure.

Same era Retron...though a year earlier so like you I have memories of snowier winters. Still NEVER seen a true white Christmas though and the closest to getting one was 2010 when I was stranded in Australia as Heathrow was shut.
Mind you that meant Christmas BBQ so wasn't so bad!

.... is this the model thread? 

I doubt there were many who didn't see icicles and deep snow in 2010